Zogby International/National Wildlife Federation Survey

Methodology: Zogby America, 8/11/06 through 8/15/06

 

This is a telephone survey of likely voters nationwide conducted by Zogby International. The target sample is 1,018 interviews with approximately 67 questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample.   Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. As many as six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by region, party, age, race, religion, gender is used to adjust for non-response.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

 

Zogby International’s sampling and weighting procedures also have been validated through its political polling: more than 95% of the firm’s polls have come within 1% of actual election-day outcomes.

---

Narrative Summary

23. Concerning global warming, over the past two years, which of the following best describes your feelings about whether global warming is happening?

Much more convinced global warming is happening	40%
Somewhat more convinced global warming is happening	34	More	74%
Somewhat less convinced global warming is happening	11
Much less convinced global warming is happening	11	Less	22%
No change/Not sure	4

Three-fourths of likely voters (74%) are more convinced from events over the past two years that global warming is happening, with two in five (40%) saying they are much more convinced. Just over one in five (22%) say they are less convinced global warming is occurring.

Large percentages of people in most major sub-groups are more convinced global warming is happening. This includes 68% or more of people in each region; 67% or more of people in each age group; 66% or more of people of each religion; 72% or more of people of each racial background; and 64% or more of people in each income group. Majorities of people in each political party are also more convinced, but Democrats (87%) and independents (82%) are much more likely so than Republicans (56%). Most men (70%) and women (77%) are also more convinced global warming is happening.

Those who are more likely than others to be less convinced that global warming is happening include Republicans (39%), conservatives (33%), very conservatives (58%), Born-again Christians (31%), and people with annual household income of $50,000-$74,999 (31%).

24 – 28. Concerning recent weather events, for each of the following, please tell me if you think global warming has had a major influence, at least some influence, or no influence.

Table 1.

	Major	Some	None	Not sure
More intense hurricanes like Katrina	30	38	27	5
More frequent droughts in parts of the country	29	40	26	5
This summer’s heat wave	27	38	31	4
Less snowfall in parts of the country	26	42	27	5
More wildfires in parts of the country	21	37	38	5

Between 26% to 30% of respondents feel that global warming has had a major influence on more intense hurricanes like Katrina, on more frequent draughts in parts of the U.S., on this summer’s heat wave, and on less snowfall in parts of the country. Furthermore, from 65% to 69% of people feel that global warming has played at least some influence or more on these conditions.

Another majority (58%) also believes global warming has been a major or at least some influence on increased wildfires in parts of the U.S. People, however, are more likely to feel that global warming has had no role on wildfires (38%) than on any of the other events.

Typically, Democrats, Hispanics, African Americans, 18-29 year-olds, residents of large cities, high school graduates and those with less education, and people with annual household income less than $35,000 are more likely than the rest of individuals to say that global warming has had a major influence on each of these recent weather events.

29. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement. Addressing global warming by requiring major industries to reduce green house gas emissions can improve the environment without harming the economy.

Table 1. Change in Agreement

	Agree			Disagree			Not sure
	Overall	Strongly	Somewhat	Overall	Strongly	Somewhat
Aug 2006	72	40	32	21	11	10	8
Oct 2003	67	33	34	27	12	15	6

Nearly three in four respondents (72%) agree that addressing global warming by requiring major industries to reduce green house gas emissions can improve the environment without harming the economy; this is up five percentage points from three years (67%) ago when the same question was asked. Significantly, the change in agreement occurs entirely among those who strongly agree with this statement (40% in 2006 vs. 33% in 2003). Strongly agree pulls from among those whose feeling on this is weak – those who were inclined to somewhat disagree or somewhat agree.

The following table shows where the most significant increase in sub-group support from 2003 to 2006 occurs among those saying they strongly agree.

Table 2. Change from 2003 to 2006

Among Sub-Groups Saying They Strongly Agree

Sub-group	2006	2003
South	41	33
West	45	29
Democrats	55	44
Republicans	26	18
Union members	52	36
Hispanics	54	32
NASCAR fans	37	29
Men	39	28

Large majorities of people in most sub-groups in 2006 agree with this statement. This includes Democrats (80%), independents (74%), and Republicans (61%), as well as men (67%) and women (75%), and 66% or more of people within each sub-group of region, age, race, religion, and income.

Republicans (31%), very conservatives (58%), and people with household income of $50,000-$74,999 (26%) are again among the most likely to be on the other side of the fence on this issue, as are men (29%) here as well.

---