Five Hours Remaining (11-1-04 7:00 pm)

 Election 2004 Zogby Battleground State Polls:

(For Subscribers Only)

 2000 Redux?
Kerry Leads in Six 2000 Blue States (IA, MI, MN, NM, PA, WI);
Bush Leads in Three 2000 Red States (CO, NV, OH);
Florida a Dead Heat at 48%,
New Reuters/Zogby Ten States Battleground Poll Reveals 

With the nation’s first ballots set to be cast just hours from now, Zogby International’s latest ten-state battleground poll shows a dead-heat in Florida, with Democrat John Kerry leading in the battleground states Vice President Gore took in 2000—and President Bush leading in the battlegrounds he captured that year. The telephone polls of approximately 600 likely voters per state were conducted from Thursday through Sunday (October 28-31, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Zogby International has narrowed the race for the White House down to ten battleground states.  While most of the other 40 states and the District of Columbia seem to be in the hands of one candidate or the other, some states (like New Hampshire or Arizona) could still produce late surprises. The following ten states are tops on our list (and everyone else’s list as well.) 

The fight for the Oval Office comes down to:

COLORADO                    9 Electoral Votes                   2000 Vote:  Bush

                                                       

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

BUSH      

+2

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 25

47%

48%

1.6%

3%

Oct. 26

47%

49%

1.5%

3%

Oct. 27

46%

50%

1.1%

3%

Oct. 28

47%

48%

3%

3%

Oct. 29

47%

46%

3%

3%

Oct. 30

50%

45%

4%

1.7%

Oct. 31

48%

47%

2%

2%

Nov. 1

49%

47%

1.3%

3%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

COORS (R)

SALAZAR (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

51%

.3%

7%

Oct. 25

44%

50%

.3%

6%

Oct. 26

43%

53%

.2%

5%

Oct. 27

42%

53%

.6%

4%

Oct. 28

43%

52%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 29

45%

50%

1.5%

4%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

.9%

5%

Oct. 31

44%

52%

.4%

4%

Nov. 1

44%

52%

.6%

4%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

53

46

+7

KERRY

52

47

+5

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

46

54

-8

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

43

46

-3

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

46

50

-4

FLORIDA                          27 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Bush

 Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

TIED       

--

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

49%

46%

1.6%

4%

Oct. 25

48%

47%

2%

3%

Oct. 26

49%

45%

2%

4%

Oct. 27

48%

46%

2%

4%

Oct. 28

48%

47%

3%

3%

Oct. 29

45%

47%

4%

4%

Oct. 30

47%

49%

2%

2%

Oct. 31

47%

48%

2%

3%

Nov. 1

48%

48%

1.6%

3%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

MARTINEZ (R)

CASTOR (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

44%

.6%

9%

Oct. 25

47%

47%

.2%

6%

Oct. 26

45%

48%

.4%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

45%

.7%

9%

Oct. 28

47%

45%

1.6%

7%

Oct. 29

46%

47%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 30

45%

48%

2%

5%

Oct. 31

46%

46%

1.6%

7%

Nov. 1

48%

43%

1.3%

8%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

52

47

+5

KERRY

54

44

+10

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

46

53

-7

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

47

46

+1

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

48

48

=

IOWA                                   7 Electoral Votes                   2000 Vote:  Gore

 Poll of 602 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+5

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

45%

2%

6%

Oct. 25

47%

44%

1.3%

8%

Oct. 26

45%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 28

44%

45%

4%

7%

Oct. 29

45%

44%

3%

8%

Oct. 30

46%

47%

3%

4%

Oct. 31

44%

50%

1.8%

4%

Nov. 1

45%

50%

2%

4%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

GRASSLEY (R)

SMALL  (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

66%

25%

1.0%

8%

Oct. 25

65%

28%

.2%

7%

Oct. 26

66%

27%

--

7%

Oct. 27

68%

27%

.2%

5%

Oct. 28

71%

23%

.5%

6%

Oct. 29

70%

24%

.9%

5%

Oct. 30

69%

23%

1.8%

7%

Oct. 31

68%

22%

1.8%

8%

Nov. 1

69%

20%

1.6%

9%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable
BUSH

51

48

+3

KERRY

56

42

+14

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

45

55

-10

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

40

49

-9

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

42

53

-11

MICHIGAN                       17 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+6

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

52%

1.3%

4%

Oct. 25

43%

52%

1.3%

3%

Oct. 26

44%

49%

2%

5%

Oct. 27

47%

47%

1.3%

5%

Oct. 28

47%

45%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 29

48%

46%

1.0%

5%

Oct. 30

47%

48%

1.9%

2%

Oct. 31

45%

52%

2%

1.3%

Nov. 1

46%

52%

1.3%

1.1%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable
BUSH

52

47

+5

KERRY

55

44

+11

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

46

54

-8

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

46

48

-2

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

46

53

-7

  

MINNESOTA                   10 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+6

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

46%

4%

6%

Oct. 25

43%

48%

3%

7%

Oct. 26

44%

46%

2%

7%

Oct. 27

44%

47%

2%

6%

Oct. 28

46%

45%

3%

6%

Oct. 29

43%

49%

2%

6%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 31

47%

49%

2%

1.5%

Nov. 1

45%

51%

1.8%

2%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

51

47

+4

KERRY

56

41

+15

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

43

56

-13

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

40

50

-10

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

43

53

-10

NEW MEXICO               5 Electoral Votes                   2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+3

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

49%

44%

3%

4%

Oct. 25

50%

42%

2%

6%

Oct. 26

48%

43%

3%

6%

Oct. 27

47%

44%

4%

5%

Oct. 28

49%

43%

3%

5%

Oct. 29

51%

42%

3%

4%

Oct. 30

52%

43%

3%

2%

Oct. 31

49%

49%

.5%

1%

Nov. 1

48%

51%

.9%

.5%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

53

46

+7

KERRY

53

45

+8

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

47

53

-6

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

46

47

-1

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

47

51

-4

NEVADA                            5 Electoral Votes                   2000 Vote:  Bush

 Poll of 603 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

BUSH              

+5

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

44%

4%

4%

Oct. 25

50%

44%

3%

4%

Oct. 26

49%

46%

1.9%

3%

Oct. 27

51%

44%

1.7%

4%

Oct. 28

50%

45%

1.5%

4%

Oct. 29

51%

44%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 30

50%

46%

1.2%

3%

Oct. 31

50%

45%

1.7%

4%

Nov. 1

50%

45%

2%

3%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

ZISER (R)

REID (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

31%

60%

.7%

8%

Oct. 25

31%

61%

1.0%

7%

Oct. 26

30%

59%

1.8%

9%

Oct. 27

34%

57%

1.6%

8%

Oct. 28

36%

56%

1.5%

7%

Oct. 29

37%

57%

.9%

5%

Oct. 30

36%

56%

1.1%

8%

Oct. 31

34%

58%

.7%

8%

Nov. 1

34%

57%

1.1%

8%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

55

45

+10

KERRY

49

51

-2

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

49

51

-2

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

46

45

-1

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

48

50

-2

OHIO                                   20 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Bush

Poll of 602 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

BUSH              

+6

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

42%

3%

8%

Oct. 25

46%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 26

46%

44%

3%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

46%

3%

6%

Oct. 28

44%

47%

3%

7%

Oct. 29

46%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 30

49%

44%

4%

4%

Oct. 31

48%

44%

4%

4%

Nov. 1

49%

43%

3%

5%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

VOINOVICH (R)

FINGERHUT (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

58%

30%

1.8%

11%

Oct. 25

55%

32%

1.1%

12%

Oct. 26

54%

32%

1.5%

12%

Oct. 27

58%

27%

.9%

14%

Oct. 28

59%

29%

.6%

11%

Oct. 29

59%

32%

.6%

8%

Oct. 30

55%

35%

1%

9%

Oct. 31

57%

33%

1.3%

9%

Nov. 1

56%

32%

1%

11%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

54

44

+10

KERRY

50

48

+2

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

48

52

-4

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

44

46

-2

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

47

48

-1

PENNSYLVANIA           21 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Gore

 Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+4

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

47%

1.5%

6%

Oct. 25

45%

48%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 26

45%

49%

1.1%

5%

Oct. 27

46%

49%

.7%

4%

Oct. 28

47%

47%

1.7%

5%

Oct. 29

44%

47%

3%

6%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 31

45%

50%

2%

3%

Nov. 1

46%

50%

1.1%

4%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

SPECTER (R)

HOEFFEL (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

38%

2%

12%

Oct. 25

53%

35%

2%

10%

Oct. 26

      54%

33%

3%

10%

Oct. 27

55%

29%

5%

11%

Oct. 28

53%

30%

5%

13%

Oct. 29

57%

28%

3%

12%

Oct. 30

54%

31%

3%

12%

Oct. 31

53%

32%

5%

10%

Nov. 1

53%

32%

6%

10%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

52

47

+5

KERRY

55

43

+12

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

44

55

-11

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

41

53

-12

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

46

51

-5

WISCONSIN                    10 Electoral Votes                 2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 29 through Nov.1.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE

KERRY           

+6

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

45%

3%

4%

Oct. 25

48%

46%

2%

4%

Oct. 26

46%

48%

1.6%

4%

Oct. 27

46%

50%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 28

46%

49%

1.2%

4%

Oct. 29

45%

50%

1.8%

3%

Oct. 30

44%

52%

2%

2%

Oct. 31

44%

51%

3%

2%

Nov. 1

45%

51%

3%

2%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

MICHELS (R)

FEINGOLD (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

54%

.4%

4%

Oct. 25

41%

54%

--

4%

Oct. 26

38%

57%

.1%

5%

Oct. 27

36%

59%

.1%

5%

Oct. 28

37%

57%

.3%

6%

Oct. 29

37%

57%

.2%

6%

Oct. 30

37%

57%

.7%

5%

Oct. 31

36%

59%

.7%

4%

Nov. 1

38%

58%

.8%

4%

 

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATING

 

Favorable (%)

Unfavorable (%)

Net Favorable

BUSH

51

48

+3

KERRY

55

43

+12

PRESIDENT’S RE-ELECTION SCORECARD

PRESIDENT’S JOB APPROVAL RATING

APPROVE (%)

DISAPPROVE (%)

NET APPROVAL

45

55

-10

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION (%)

WRONG TRACK (%)

NET RIGHT DIRECTION

44

49

-5

RE-ELECT NUMBERS

DESERVES RE-ELECTION (%)

SOMEONE NEW (%)

NET RE-ELECT

44

52

-8

Zogby International conducted interviews of approximately 600 likely voters in each of ten battleground states.  The likely voters were chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 29 through November 1, 2004. Margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points in each state.  Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result, and was one of the first pollsters to accurately foresee Vice President Al Gore’s popular-vote victory in 2000. Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.