Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Final: Obama in Double-Digit Lead, 54% to 43%

UTICA, New York - Democrat Barack Obama has increased his lead to 11.4 points over Republican John McCain in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll -- up from a 7.1 point advantage in yesterday's report. The final tally now stands at 54.1% for Obama compared to 42.7% for McCain.

Data from this poll is available here

Pollster John Zogby: "Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change."

Final Tally	Nov. 3
Obama	54.1%
McCain	42.7%
Other	3.1%

Week Four Three-Day Tracking Poll	11-2	11-1	10-31	10-30	10-29	10-28	10-27
Obama	50.9%	49.5%	49.1%	50.1%	50.2%	49.1%	49.0%
McCain	43.8%	43.8%	44.1%	43.1%	43.3%	44.4%	44.7%
Others/Not sure	5.3%	6.7%	6.8%	6.8%	6.5%	6.5%	6.3%

Week Three Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-26	10-25	10-24	10-23	10-22	10-21	10-20
Obama	49.9%	49.4%	51.1%	51.3%	52.2%	51.6%	50.3%
McCain	45.1%	44.1%	41.6%	41.0%	40.3%	42.0%	42.4%
Others/Not sure	4.9%	6.6%	7.3%	7.7%	7.5%	6.4%	7.3%

Week Two Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-19	10-18	10-17	10-16	10-15	10-14	10-13
Obama	49.8%	47.8%	48.3%	48.7%	49.0%	48.2%	49.0%
McCain	44.4%	45.1%	44.4%	43.7%	43.5%	44.4%	42.8%
Others/Not sure	5.8%	7.1%	7.3%	7.6%	7.5%	7.4%	8.2%

Week One Three-Day Tracking Poll	10-12	10-11	10-10	10-9	10-8	10-7	10-6
Obama	47.9%	48.9%	47.6%	47.6%	47.8%	47.1%	47.7%
McCain	43.6%	42.8%	43.8%	43.4%	44.2%	45.2%	45.3%
Others/Not sure	8.5%	8.3%	8.6%	9.0%	8.0%	7.7%	7.0%

If this turns out to be the stunning victory for Obama, he will have done it with large leads among independents (24 points), women (20 points), moderates (32%) and those who registered to vote in the last six months (30 points). He also wins 91% support from Democrats and leads in nearly every age group with the exception of those age 55 to 69, where McCain leads by just a half point.

McCain holds the support of 85% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives. He also leads by 7 points among whites.

The three-day rolling tracking poll included 1,226 likely voters - about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. Eastern daily, with the exception of tonight's polling, which ended at 9 p.m.) - and was conducted Nov. 1-3, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.

How Our Daily Tracking Poll Works

This is the final daily tracking telephone poll. With each new day of responses of likely voters that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey sample is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date with the latest in political polling by visiting www.zogby.com.

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Survey Methodology [Reuters/CSPAN Zogby National Tracking Likely Voters] 10/31/08 thru 11/3/08

Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [likely voters].

The sample is [1226 DECIDED likely voters] interviews with approximately [25] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd's of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

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