Vehicle Sales (SAAR) - Historical Chart
Total Vehicle Sales, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series TOTALSA. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What the Feb 2026 Data Shows
At 16, the vehicle sales (saar) in Feb 2026 is below the 10-year average of 16 by 0.25. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
FRED series TOTALSA reports total light vehicle sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The SAAR takes the month's actual sales and annualizes them, adjusting for seasonal patterns. A reading of 15.0 million means that if every month sold at the same pace, 15 million vehicles would sell in a year.
The U.S. vehicle market has historically run at 16-17 million SAAR during expansions. It dropped to 9 million during the 2009 recession and briefly hit virtually zero during the COVID lockdowns in April 2020. Post-pandemic, chip shortages constrained supply and pushed sales below trend levels for 2-3 years.
Vehicle sales are one of the most interest-rate-sensitive consumer expenditures. Monthly payments on a $35,000 vehicle rise roughly $50-60 for every 1% increase in auto loan rates, which directly affects affordability.
What This Metric Measures
This page tracks total vehicle sales (autos and light trucks) in the United States, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units. The data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, series TOTALSA, updated monthly.
Historical Context
The all-time peak was 22 in Oct 2001 — roughly 1.4x the current level. The all-time trough was 9 in Apr 2020. During COVID-19 in 2020, the reading hit 17 (Feb 2020). Year-over-year, the metric has moved -1.8%.
Why It Matters
The auto industry has a massive multiplier effect. Each new vehicle sale generates revenue for dealers, finance companies, insurers, parts manufacturers, and service shops. Auto manufacturing alone accounts for roughly 3% of U.S. GDP. When vehicle sales slow, the effects ripple through the economy.
For auto dealers, finance companies, and related businesses, the SAAR is the top-line demand indicator. A reading below 14 million signals a weak market; above 17 million signals boom conditions.
What This Means for Business Owners
Understanding where this metric stands relative to historical norms helps business owners make better borrowing decisions. Metrics far from their 10-year average often signal turning points that affect the cost and availability of credit.
Total Vehicle Sales - Frequently Asked Questions
Total vehicle sales are running at 16.12 million SAAR as of Feb 2026, per FRED series TOTALSA.
Sales moved up from Jan 2026. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months. The SAAR can be volatile month to month; the 3-month average is more reliable.
The pre-pandemic trend was 16-17 million SAAR. Below 14 million indicates a weak market. Above 17 million suggests pent-up demand or loose financing. The 2009 trough was approximately 9 million.
A 1% increase in auto loan rates adds roughly $50-60/month to the payment on a $35,000 vehicle. This directly reduces affordability and pushes marginal buyers out of the market, especially subprime borrowers.
Semiconductor chip shortages constrained production, keeping dealer inventories historically low. Demand was strong but supply-limited. The chip shortage gradually resolved through 2023.
FRED series TOTALSA, compiled from Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates based on manufacturer reports. Published monthly.