TED Spread - Historical Chart
Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve FRED, Series TEDRATE. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What 0.09% TED Spread Tells Us
The TED spread -- the difference between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month T-bill yields -- measures how much banks trust each other. At 0.09% as of Jan 2022, interbank trust was normal. But this data series was discontinued in January 2022 when LIBOR was phased out.
Before its discontinuation, the TED spread was the definitive measure of banking system stress. It peaked at 4.58% during the 2008 financial crisis -- meaning banks demanded a massive premium to lend to each other because they were terrified that counterparty banks would fail.
The TED spread spiked before every banking crisis since its creation. It jumped ahead of the 1987 crash, the 1998 LTCM crisis, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID shock. Each spike reflected the same underlying dynamic: banks stopped trusting each other and hoarded cash.
When Banks Do Not Trust Each Other, You Cannot Get a Loan
Bank distrust flows downhill. When banks are nervous about lending to each other, they become dramatically more cautious about lending to businesses. The TED spread was a leading indicator for SLOOS tightening by 1-2 quarters.
What This Means for Business Owners
With LIBOR discontinued, the TED spread in its classic form no longer exists. However, the concept it captured -- interbank trust -- can now be tracked through alternatives: the SOFR-Treasury spread, the FRA-OIS spread, and bank CDS spreads.
The 2023 regional bank crisis (SVB, Signature, First Republic) would have produced a massive TED spread spike if the indicator still existed. The equivalent measures did spike, confirming that interbank stress was real even if the classic gauge was no longer published.
Historical Lessons
The TED spread taught us that banking crises are trust crises. When the number spikes above 1%, banks are genuinely afraid. Above 2%, the financial system is in distress. The 2008 peak of 4.58% represented near-complete breakdown of interbank trust. Understanding this dynamic helps interpret modern equivalents even though the original measure is gone.
Frequently Asked Questions
The ted spread is 0.09% as of Jan 2022, based on Federal Reserve FRED series TEDRATE.
The reading moved up by 0.01pp from Jan 2022. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
The all-time peak was 4.58% in Oct 2008.
At 0.09%, the current reading is below the 10-year average of 0.29%.
The ted spread influences the overall cost of capital and credit availability. Higher readings typically correspond to tighter credit conditions and more expensive borrowing for all businesses.
Federal Reserve FRED series TEDRATE. Updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.