Quits Rate (JOLTS) - Historical Chart
Quits Rate (JOLTS). Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series JTSQUR. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
The Quits Rate Is the Best Labor Market Indicator You Are Not Watching
Forget the unemployment rate. Forget payrolls. The single best real-time indicator of labor market health is the quits rate -- the share of workers who voluntarily leave their jobs each month. It measures something no other series captures: worker confidence. People quit when they believe they can find something better. They stay put when they are scared.
At 2.0%, the quits rate is at its lowest level since Sep 2009, excluding the brief COVID freeze. During the Great Resignation of 2021-2022, this number hit 3.0% -- workers were quitting at historically unprecedented rates, chasing higher wages and better conditions. That era is decisively over.
The speed of the reversal is what stands out. From 3.0% to 2.0% in roughly two years represents one of the fastest declines in the series' history. It did not take a recession to kill the Great Resignation. It took a shift in sentiment -- workers gradually realizing that the job market was cooling, that their leverage was fading, and that the next offer might not materialize.
What a Low Quits Rate Tells You
A quits rate below 2.2% historically correlates with:
- Decelerating wage growth -- workers who do not quit do not trigger bidding wars
- Lower turnover costs -- good news for business owners spending on recruitment
- Declining worker bargaining power -- performance standards can be enforced again
- Rising anxiety about the future -- workers are choosing security over opportunity
Why Business Owners Should Pay Attention
If your employees have stopped leaving, do not mistake it for loyalty. They are hedging. The moment the job market reheats, the best workers -- the ones with options -- will be the first to leave. Low quits rates create a pressure buildup that releases suddenly when conditions improve.
More importantly, a low quits rate is a coincident/leading indicator of consumer spending weakness. Workers who are afraid to quit are also afraid to spend. They defer big purchases, skip vacations, and pay down debt instead of consuming. The quits rate at 2.0% is telling you that the consumer is more cautious than the retail sales data shows, because retail sales measures what people are doing and the quits rate measures how they feel about the future.
Historical Pattern
The 10-year average quits rate is 2.3%. The COVID-era trough was 1.2% when lockdowns froze all labor market activity. The pre-COVID normal was about 2.3%. At 2.0%, we are below the pre-pandemic baseline, which suggests the labor market is not just normalizing -- it is softening beyond where it was in 2019.
Three things that would change this picture:
- Quits rate rising above 2.3% -- workers are regaining confidence
- Job openings rising above 8M -- demand for workers is reaccelerating
- Wage growth reaccelerating above 4.5% -- employers competing aggressively again
None of those signals are flashing right now. The quits rate says the labor market, beneath its calm surface, is cooling faster than most analysts acknowledge.
Quits Rate JOLTS - Frequently Asked Questions
Total quits are {value}K as of {period}, per FRED series JTSQUR. This counts all voluntary separations initiated by employees across all nonfarm industries during the reporting month.
Quits are a confidence indicator. Workers only quit voluntarily when they believe they can find something better. A high quits rate means workers have leverage; a falling rate means they are worried about finding new employment. Fed Chair Powell has called it his favorite labor metric.
Quits surged to over 4.5 million per month in late 2021 and early 2022, well above the pre-pandemic average of about 3.5 million. Workers used the tight labor market to switch to higher-paying jobs, and many left the workforce entirely.
High quits rates drive wage growth because employers must raise pay to retain workers and attract replacements. The Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker shows that job switchers consistently earn more than job stayers, so a high quits rate mechanically pushes average wages higher.
Leisure and hospitality, retail, and other low-wage service sectors consistently have the highest quit rates because switching costs are low and jobs are abundant. Professional services and government have the lowest quit rates due to higher switching costs and benefits.
FRED series JTSQUR from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Monthly, seasonally adjusted. Released alongside the JOLTS job openings data with a roughly 5-week lag from the reference month.