Lending Volume vs. Delinquency: More Loans, More Problems? (Jan 2026)

The c&i loans outstanding moved to 2.74T in Jan 2026, up 33.03 from 2.71T in Dec 2025. Year-over-year, the reading is up 77.43 from 2.66T.

Source: Federal Reserve (FRED Series BUSLOANS) Data through Jan 2026 Next release: ~Mar 2026
Current C&I Loans Outstanding
2.74T
Jan 2026 ↑ 33.03
Year Ago
2.66T
Jan 2025 2.9% YoY
10-Year Average
2.48T
Current is above avg by 259.38

C&I Loans Outstanding - Historical Chart

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks. Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.

$0B$1T$2T$3T $3T 2010201520202025

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series BUSLOANS. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.

What the Jan 2026 Data Shows

At 2.74T, the c&i loans outstanding in Jan 2026 is above the 10-year average of 2.48T by 259.38. The trend is upward, with increases in 5 of the last 6 months.

This comparison puts lending volume (how much is outstanding) side by side with delinquency rates (what percentage is going bad). The relationship between the two is one of the fundamental dynamics in banking.

During credit expansions, banks lend more. Initially, the new loans perform well because they were originated in a strong economy. But as the expansion matures, underwriting standards loosen, riskier borrowers get funded, and delinquencies begin to rise. The lag between peak lending and peak delinquency is typically 2-4 years.

The reverse is also true: when banks pull back on lending (volume declines), delinquencies eventually fall because only the best borrowers are getting funded. This is the credit cycle in its purest form.

What This Metric Measures

This page tracks the relationship between total C&I loan volume and delinquency rates -- whether credit expansion leads to credit deterioration. The data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, series BUSLOANS, updated monthly.

Historical Context

The all-time peak was 3.04T in May 2020 — roughly 1.1x the current level. The all-time trough was 11.3B in Jan 1947. During COVID-19 in 2020, the reading hit 3.04T (May 2020). Year-over-year, the metric has moved 2.9%.

Why It Matters

Understanding the volume-quality tradeoff helps calibrate risk. If C&I loans have grown rapidly for several years and delinquencies are starting to tick up, the pattern matches a late-cycle deterioration. If volume is flat but delinquencies are rising, the problem is economic rather than credit-quality-driven.

What This Means for Business Owners

Understanding where this metric stands relative to historical norms helps business owners make better borrowing decisions. Metrics far from their 10-year average often signal turning points that affect the cost and availability of credit.

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Comparison - Jan 2026

Category Current Prior Period Year Ago Change
C&I Loans Outstanding ★ $2741.7B $2708.7B $2664.3B 33.03 ↑
Business Loan Delinquency Rate (SA) 1.34% 1.33% 1.27% 0.01pp ↑

Source: Federal Reserve FRED. All rates seasonally adjusted. ★ = primary focus of this page.

Lending Volume vs. Delinquency - Frequently Asked Questions

Does more lending lead to more delinquencies?

With a lag. Rapid credit expansion typically sees low delinquencies initially because new loans have not had time to go bad. Delinquencies rise 2-4 years later when the weakest vintage loans mature.

What is the current loan volume?

C&I loans outstanding are 2.74T as of Jan 2026. Compare with the delinquency rate on the chart to see where we are in the credit cycle.

What happened during the 2020 spike?

C&I loans spiked as companies drew down credit lines for precautionary reasons, but delinquencies stayed low because government programs (PPP, enhanced unemployment) kept businesses afloat. The volume spike was not correlated with credit deterioration.

Is the current volume-to-delinquency ratio healthy?

Evaluate the trend rather than the absolute level. If volume is growing moderately and delinquencies are stable or declining, the cycle is healthy. If volume is growing rapidly while delinquencies are rising, caution is warranted.

What signals the end of a credit cycle?

Delinquencies rising while volume is still growing (late expansion), followed by volume declining as banks tighten (contraction). The cycle ends when both volume and delinquencies are falling simultaneously.

Where does this data come from?

FRED series BUSLOANS (volume) and DRBLACBS (delinquency rate), from the Federal Reserve H.8 release and Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates release.

Related Data & Guides

Data sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Updated monthly when new data is released.