Job Openings (JOLTS) - Historical Chart
Job Openings (JOLTS). Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series JTSJOL. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
The Great Normalization Is Almost Complete
In March 2022, there were 12.1 million job openings -- nearly two openings for every unemployed worker. That ratio, which the Fed watches closely, meant workers had enormous bargaining power. They could quit bad jobs, demand raises, and jump to higher-paying competitors. The "Great Resignation" was not about lazy workers. It was about a historically unprecedented seller's market for labor.
That market is over. At 6.5 million openings and roughly 7.3 million unemployed, the ratio has fallen to approximately 0.9:1. That is right at the pre-pandemic level, which means the labor market has fully normalized. Workers no longer have two offers in hand when they walk into a negotiation. They have one, maybe, if they are lucky.
The decline has been remarkably orderly. No collapse, no recession, just a steady draining of excess demand. Openings have fallen by 5.6 million from the peak. Most of that decline came from employers pulling job postings rather than from hiring surges filling them. Companies posted aggressively in 2021-2022, realized they could not fill the positions at the wages they were offering, and quietly took the listings down.
The Ghost Job Problem
A significant share of posted openings -- estimates range from 20% to 40% -- are "ghost jobs": listings that companies maintain for pipeline purposes, compliance reasons, or just because no one remembered to take them down. The actual number of positions where a hiring manager is ready to make an offer is meaningfully lower than the JOLTS headline. This means the labor market is even cooler than 6.5 million suggests.
What Falling Openings Mean for Business Owners
If you have been struggling to hire, you are about to catch a break. As openings continue to normalize, the balance of power shifts back toward employers. You will see more applications per posting, better-qualified candidates, and less wage pressure. The era of signing bonuses for baristas is over.
But there is a paradox: falling openings also signal softening demand. Companies post jobs when they expect growth. When they pull listings, it means their revenue projections have come down. Your hiring may get easier precisely because your competitors' businesses are slowing, and that same slowdown will eventually reach you.
Sector Breakdown
The decline in openings is not uniform. Professional and business services, information technology, and manufacturing have seen the steepest drops. Healthcare and government openings have held up better, because those sectors are driven by demographics and budgets rather than the business cycle.
The 10-year average is 7.8M openings. We are below that level. But the average includes the extraordinary 2021-2023 period, which skews it upward. A pre-COVID average of about 6-7 million is a better baseline, and we are right at that level now.
The Leading Indicator You Should Follow
JOLTS data is released with a two-month lag (the Dec 2025 report covers data from two months ago). By the time you read it, the labor market has already moved. For real-time signals, watch Indeed job postings (updated weekly) and Lightcast data. Both suggest the downtrend in openings is continuing, with postings in early 2026 running about 15% below year-ago levels.
Year-over-year, openings are down by 966K or 12.9%. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
Job Openings JOLTS - Frequently Asked Questions
Total job openings are {value}K as of {period}, per FRED series JTSJOL from the BLS JOLTS survey. This counts unfilled positions on the last business day of the reporting month across all nonfarm industries.
Fewer openings means businesses are pulling back on hiring. It can signal weakening demand, budget constraints, or a strategic pause. Declining openings often precede rising unemployment by 3-6 months.
When openings are high relative to available workers, employers must raise wages to compete for talent. The openings-to-unemployed ratio is one of the best predictors of near-term wage growth. As that ratio falls, wage pressure eases.
Healthcare, professional services, retail, and accommodation/food services consistently have the most openings. Government also runs high openings due to non-competitive pay. Manufacturing and construction openings fluctuate with the business cycle.
The monthly jobs report (CES survey) counts employees who are currently working. JOLTS counts positions that employers are trying to fill but have not yet filled. They measure different things: the jobs report is a snapshot of employment; JOLTS is a measure of labor demand.
FRED series JTSJOL from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Monthly, seasonally adjusted. The survey covers approximately 21,000 establishments and is released with a roughly 5-week lag.