Overall Assessment
Five of eight tracked metrics are above their 10-year averages. CRE delinquencies and business charge-offs are significantly elevated (red). Credit card delinquencies and charge-offs are above average (yellow). Lending standards just reversed from easing to tightening. This is not a crisis -- but the analog is 2006, not 2019. The credit cycle is turning, and businesses with debt should prepare accordingly.
Traffic-light indicators compare each metric to its 10-year average. Green means close to or below average. Yellow means notably above. Red means significantly elevated.
Data Comparison — Q4 2025
| Metric | Current | Prior Period | Year Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Loans Delinquency | 1.48% | 1.49% | 1.53% | 0.01pp ↓ |
| Business Loan Delinquency | 1.34% | 1.33% | 1.27% | 0.01pp ↑ |
| Credit Card Delinquency | 2.94% | 2.98% | 3.08% | 0.04pp ↓ |
| CRE Delinquency | 1.58% | 1.56% | 1.56% | 0.02pp ↑ |
| Business Loan Charge-Off | 0.55% | 0.57% | 0.51% | 0.02pp ↓ |
| Credit Card Charge-Off | 4.11% | 4.18% | 4.58% | 0.07pp ↓ |
| Lending Standards (Small Firms) | 8.90% | 8.30% | 11.10% | 0.60pp ↑ |
| Lending Standards (Large Firms) | 5.30% | 6.50% | 6.20% | 1.20pp ↓ |
Source: Federal Reserve FRED. All data as of latest available period.
The 2006 Analog: Why This Matters
The current credit risk landscape does not look like 2008. It looks like 2006. That distinction matters more than most analysts acknowledge.
In mid-2006, delinquency rates were low by historical standards but had stopped falling. Charge-offs were ticking up from cycle lows. Banks were just beginning to tighten lending standards after years of loose credit. Everyone pointed to the low absolute levels and said the system was healthy. They were wrong -- they were reading lagging indicators at a turning point.
Today we see the same pattern. Business loan delinquencies at 1.34% are above their 10-year average of 1.19%. Business charge-offs at 0.55% are 49% above their 10-year average. CRE delinquencies at 1.58% have risen sharply from post-COVID lows. These are not crisis numbers -- but they are deteriorating numbers, and that trajectory is what matters.
What the Lending Standards Tell Us
The SLOOS survey shows 8.9% (net) of banks tightening standards for small firms, with the reading ticking up from 8.3%. For large firms, 5.3% are tightening. These numbers are below their 10-year averages -- but the direction reversed. After months of easing, banks are tightening again. When this metric reverses direction, pay attention.
Lending standards are the most forward-looking metric in this dashboard. Banks tighten before losses arrive, not after. The current re-tightening, combined with above-average delinquencies and charge-offs, creates a feedback loop: stressed borrowers face harder refinancing conditions, which pushes more loans into delinquency.
Credit Cards: The Consumer Canary
Credit card delinquencies at 2.94% and charge-offs at 4.11% remain above their decade averages. Credit card debt is the first thing consumers fall behind on when cash flow tightens. These elevated levels signal that a meaningful segment of households is running out of financial cushion -- and those households are also the customers of small businesses.
Reading the Dashboard: A Practical Framework
Each mini-chart shows the 10-year trend for one metric. The comparison table gives exact current values, prior-period levels, year-ago readings, and the most recent change. The traffic lights compare each metric to its 10-year average.
Here is what to watch for:
- Multiple metrics moving in the same direction -- when delinquencies, charge-offs, and lending standards all deteriorate simultaneously, the signal is much stronger than any single metric.
- Delinquencies leading charge-offs -- rising delinquencies today become charge-offs 1-2 quarters from now. That lag gives you a planning window.
- Lending standards reversing -- a shift from easing to tightening is more significant than the absolute level. The current tick-up in DRTSCIS deserves close monitoring.
- CRE as the outlier -- commercial real estate delinquencies at 1.58% are the most elevated relative to history. Office and retail property stress could spill into broader credit markets.
For business owners carrying debt: this dashboard tells you to act now, not later. Lock in refinancing terms before they deteriorate further. Build cash reserves. Do not assume the current environment will persist -- the direction of these indicators is more important than their levels.
Credit Risk Dashboard -- Frequently Asked Questions
Nine Federal Reserve metrics across three categories: delinquency rates (loans past due 30+ days), charge-off rates (loans written off as losses), and lending standards (bank survey data on whether credit is tightening or easing). Together they show the full credit cycle from stress to loss to policy response.
Mixed, with a deteriorating bias. Delinquencies and charge-offs remain above 10-year averages across most categories. Lending standards had been easing but reversed course -- the latest SLOOS shows 8.9% net tightening for small firms, up from 8.3%. The overall picture is not a crisis, but the trajectory is concerning.
Bank lending standards from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS). Banks tighten before losses arrive. When net tightening reverses from easing to tightening -- as it just did -- that is a forward-looking signal that credit conditions will deteriorate in coming quarters.
Current delinquency rates (1.34% for business loans) are well below 2008-2010 peaks (which exceeded 4-5%). But the pattern resembles 2006 -- levels that looked manageable in isolation were actually early signals of a turning credit cycle. The level matters less than the direction.
If you have variable-rate debt, explore fixed-rate refinancing now. Build 3-6 months of cash reserves. Renew credit lines before they come up for review. Avoid taking on new leverage for discretionary projects. The credit window may not close tomorrow, but it is narrowing.
All delinquency, charge-off, and lending standards data is published quarterly by the Federal Reserve, typically with a 2-month lag. This dashboard updates within days of each new FRED release.