Consumer Sentiment - Historical Chart
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series UMCSENT. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What the Jan 2026 Data Shows
At 56.4, the consumer sentiment in Jan 2026 is below the 10-year average of 79.4 by 22.96. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (FRED series UMCSENT) has been measuring how Americans feel about the economy since 1952. The index is based on a monthly telephone survey of approximately 500 households, asking about personal finances, business conditions, and buying plans.
The index is calibrated so that the 1966 baseline equals 100. Readings above 100 indicate greater optimism than the 1966 average; below 100 indicates more pessimism. The historical range runs from about 50 (deep recession lows) to 110+ (peak expansion confidence).
Consumer sentiment is a useful leading indicator because consumer spending drives roughly 70% of GDP. When sentiment drops sharply, consumers tend to cut discretionary spending within 1-3 months. However, sentiment does not always predict behavior -- consumers sometimes express pessimism while continuing to spend.
What This Metric Measures
This page tracks the University of Michigan's composite index of consumer attitudes about current economic conditions and future expectations, based on monthly telephone surveys of U.S. households. The data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, series UMCSENT, updated monthly.
Historical Context
The all-time peak was 112.0 in Jan 2000 — roughly 2.0x the current level. The all-time trough was 50.0 in Jun 2022. During COVID-19 in 2020, the reading hit 101.0 (Feb 2020). Year-over-year, the metric has moved -21.3%.
Why It Matters
Sentiment is a confidence barometer for consumer-facing businesses. When the index is rising, consumers are more likely to make major purchases (cars, appliances, home renovations). When it is falling, they defer big-ticket spending and focus on necessities.
For small business owners, a falling sentiment reading is a signal to watch your receivables and inventory closely. Consumer caution translates to slower sales and potentially longer collection cycles.
What This Means for Business Owners
Understanding where this metric stands relative to historical norms helps business owners make better borrowing decisions. Metrics far from their 10-year average often signal turning points that affect the cost and availability of credit.
Consumer Sentiment Index - Frequently Asked Questions
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is 56.40 as of Jan 2026, per FRED series UMCSENT. The baseline is 100 (1966 level).
The index moved up by 3.50 points from Dec 2025. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
The all-time low was approximately 50 in June 2022, driven by high inflation, rising gas prices, and aggressive Fed rate hikes. The Great Recession low was about 55 in November 2008.
Sometimes. Sharp drops in sentiment have preceded several recessions, but there have also been sentiment declines that did not lead to recessions. It works better as a coincident indicator than a pure leading indicator.
Both measure similar things but use different methodologies. Michigan surveys by phone; Conference Board surveys by mail. Michigan includes an expectations component that tends to be more forward-looking. Both are widely followed.
FRED series UMCSENT. Published by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Preliminary readings come mid-month; final readings at month end.