Charge-Off Rate (NSA) - Historical Chart
Charge-Off Rate on Business Loans, All Commercial Banks, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series CORBLACBN. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What the Q4 2025 Data Shows
At 0.59%, the charge-off rate (nsa) in Q4 2025 is above the 10-year average of 0.37% by 0.22pp. The trend is upward, with increases in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
FRED series CORBLACBN reports the business loan charge-off rate without seasonal adjustment. Charge-offs can cluster in specific quarters due to regulatory reporting cycles, year-end portfolio reviews, and tax-loss harvesting patterns. The NSA version preserves these patterns.
For credit risk analysts, the NSA series can reveal information that seasonal adjustment smooths away. If Q4 charge-offs consistently run higher than other quarters, that seasonal pattern may mask an underlying deterioration that a year-end surge obscures in the adjusted data.
Like the delinquency NSA series, this metric is best used for same-quarter year-over-year comparisons rather than sequential quarter analysis. The raw numbers also feed directly into bank-level stress testing models where seasonal adjustment is handled at a later stage.
What This Metric Measures
This page tracks the raw, unadjusted annualized percentage of business loans charged off at all commercial banks during the quarter. The data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, series CORBLACBN, updated quarterly.
Historical Context
The all-time peak was 2.65% in Q4 2009 — roughly 4.5x the current level. The all-time trough was 0.11% in Q1 2022. During COVID-19 in 2020, the reading hit 0.60% (Q2 2020). Year-over-year, the metric has moved 7.3%.
Why It Matters
Bank examiners and credit risk modelers need the unadjusted numbers because seasonal adjustment introduces model assumptions that may not hold during periods of stress. The raw data shows what actually happened on bank balance sheets in each quarter.
Comparing the NSA and SA versions can reveal whether the seasonal adjustment model is performing well. A growing gap between them may indicate structural changes in the timing of charge-offs that the model has not yet adapted to.
Bank Lending Standards: Tightening
The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that 8.9% net of domestic banks tightened standards for C&I loans to small firms in Q1 2026. Banks have now tightened for 15 consecutive quarters. When banks tighten, businesses that cannot qualify for traditional loans often turn to merchant cash advance products with effective APRs of 60–350%.
What This Means for Business Owners
Rising charge-offs are a warning signal. More borrowers are falling behind on payments, which makes banks more cautious about new lending. If your business is carrying MCA debt or struggling with loan payments, the macro data confirms the pressure is real and widespread, not just your situation.
Charge-Off Rates by Loan Type - Q4 2025
Charge-off rates across all major loan categories at U.S. commercial banks:
| Category | Current | Prior Period | Year Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Loans | 0.55% | 0.57% | 0.51% | 0.02pp ↓ |
| Credit Cards | 4.11% | 4.18% | 4.58% | 0.07pp ↓ |
| Real Estate | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.02pp ↓ |
| Consumer Loans | 2.81% | 2.89% | 2.98% | 0.08pp ↓ |
| All Loans (total) | 0.58% | 0.62% | 0.65% | 0.04pp ↓ |
Source: Federal Reserve FRED. All rates seasonally adjusted. ★ = primary focus of this page.
Business Loan Charge-Off Rate (NSA) - Frequently Asked Questions
The not seasonally adjusted charge-off rate is 0.59% as of Q4 2025, per FRED series CORBLACBN. Compare with the SA version (CORBLACBS) to see the seasonal component.
Bank examiners, credit modelers, and stress testers prefer raw data because seasonal adjustment assumptions may not hold during unusual periods. Year-over-year same-quarter comparisons with NSA data avoid this issue entirely.
Q4 and Q1 tend to see higher charge-offs due to year-end portfolio reviews, regulatory exam cycles, and banks clearing problem loans before annual reporting. This seasonal pattern is exactly what the SA adjustment removes.
The NSA rate moved up by 0.01pp from Q3 2025. The trend is upward, with increases in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Use year-over-year comparisons for a cleaner read.
Under CECL accounting, banks provision for expected losses over the life of the loan at origination. Actual charge-offs then draw down those reserves. If charge-offs exceed provisions, banks must take additional hits to earnings.
FRED series CORBLACBN, published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates release.