2Y Treasury Yield - Historical Chart
Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity. Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Series DGS2. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What the Mar 2026 Data Shows
At 3.57%, the 2y treasury yield in Mar 2026 is above the 10-year average of 2.34% by 1.23pp. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
What This Metric Measures
This page tracks the yield on U.S. Treasury securities with a 2-year maturity, closely tracking market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, series DGS2, updated daily.
Historical Context
The all-time peak was 16.95% in Sep 1981 — roughly 4.7x the current level. The all-time trough was 0.09% in Feb 2021. During COVID-19 in 2020, the reading hit 1.58% (Jan 2020). Year-over-year, the metric has moved -9.8%.
Why It Matters
The 2-year Treasury yield is the market's best real-time forecast of where the Fed will set short-term interest rates over the next two years. When the 2-year drops sharply, the bond market is signaling that rate cuts are coming. When it rises, the market expects rates to stay higher for longer.
What This Means for Business Owners
Understanding where this metric stands relative to historical norms helps business owners make better borrowing decisions. Metrics far from their 10-year average often signal turning points that affect the cost and availability of credit.
2-Year Treasury Rate - Frequently Asked Questions
The 2-year Treasury yield is 3.57% as of Mar 2026 per FRED series DGS2.
The 2-year yield reflects market expectations for the Fed's rate path. If the 2-year is well below the current fed funds rate, the bond market is pricing in rate cuts. If it is above, the market expects further hikes.
The difference between the 10-year and 2-year yields is the most watched yield curve measure. When the 2-year exceeds the 10-year (inversion), it has historically preceded every U.S. recession since 1970.
The all-time peak was 16.95% in Sep 1981 during the early 1980s rate environment.
Short-term business loans, lines of credit, and adjustable-rate debt are more closely tied to the 2-year Treasury than the 10-year. If you have a 2-year term loan, the pricing benchmark is likely SOFR or the 2-year swap rate.
FRED series DGS2, updated daily by the U.S. Treasury Department.