10-Year Treasury Yield - Historical Chart
Gray shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: Federal Reserve FRED, Series DGS10. Shaded areas = NBER recession dates. Updated 2026-03-09.
What 4.13% 10-Year Treasury Yield Tells Us
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.13% is the single most important rate in global finance. It sets the benchmark for mortgage rates, corporate bond yields, and the discount rate investors use to value every asset from stocks to real estate.
Right now, the 10-year is telling us something uncomfortable. At 4.13%, it is pricing in persistent inflation and fiscal deficits. The bond market sees higher-for-longer as the base case, even as the stock market rallies on hopes of rate cuts. When stocks and bonds disagree, bonds are usually right.
For business owners, the 10-year yield affects the cost of long-term fixed-rate borrowing. SBA 504 loans, commercial mortgages, and equipment financing with terms over 5 years are all priced off the 10-year or similar benchmarks. At 4.13%, these rates make long-term investment projects significantly more expensive than during the sub-2% era of 2020-2021.
The Bond-Stock Disagreement
The stock market is pricing in a soft landing and rate cuts. The bond market at 4.13% is pricing in sticky inflation and persistent deficits. These two views cannot both be right. History suggests that when the bond market and stock market diverge, the bond market's signal is more reliable for economic forecasting.
What This Means for Business Owners
The spread between the 10-year (4.13%) and the 2-year (3.57%) has turned positive again at 0.56%. After a prolonged inversion, the curve has normalized. Historically, the recession hits 6-18 months AFTER un-inversion -- not during the inversion itself.
For business planning, the 10-year yield is your cost-of-capital benchmark for any investment with a 5+ year payback. If your project does not return more than 4.13% plus a risk premium (typically 3-5%), the math says do not borrow for it. This simple calculation explains why business fixed investment has slowed: fewer projects clear the hurdle rate at current yields.
Historical Context
The 10-year peaked at 15.84% in the early 1980s and bottomed at 0.52% in 2020. The 10-year average is 2.73%. Current 4.13% is well above that average, reflecting the end of the post-2008 low-rate era.
Frequently Asked Questions
The 10-year treasury yield is 4.13% as of Mar 2026, based on Federal Reserve FRED series DGS10.
The reading moved up by 0.04pp from Mar 2026. The reading has been mixed recently, fluctuating without a clear directional trend over the past 6 months.
The all-time peak was 15.84% in Sep 1981.
At 4.13%, the current reading is above the 10-year average of 2.73%.
The 10-year treasury yield influences the overall cost of capital and credit availability. Higher readings typically correspond to tighter credit conditions and more expensive borrowing for all businesses.
Federal Reserve FRED series DGS10. Updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.