Voters Want Change
But Which Party Represents It?

(An op-ed as it appears in the December, 2007 edition of Campaigns and Elections Politics Magazine)

With a little less than one year before voters go to the polls, there are four overarching premises that define the mood of the American electorate:

1. Serious Crisis. Sixty-six percent of all voters continue to tell us that the United States is in a serious crisis. That number has held up for the past 18 months and it closely resembles the 66 to 70 percent who have been telling us that things in the country are on the wrong track. Frustration with the war in Iraq began this pro- cess, but economic anxiety and a cri- sis in leadership allow this negativity to fester.

2. Rebirth of the Political Center. Typically, U.S. elections are shaped and decided by the swing voter. This centrist, independent voter has tended over the years to be unaffiliated with a political party, more likely to be female, less likely to be focusing on the details of the cam- paign until later, and more ad hoc on issues than ideological in worldview.

3. Katrina As Defining Moment. As I have written in this space before, in many ways, Katrina will turn out to be as defining a moment in our recent history as Sept. 11. Now, when Americans are asked whether govern- ment is capable of protecting them, their answers are usually "no."

4. Anti-Institutional Mood. Bush's popularity is at record low levels; just 24 percent give him posi- tive marks for job performance. But Congress' popularity is even worse, with an 11 percent positive job approval rating.

Democrats also have to come to grips with the fact that they are not running against Bush. A new Republican face would be able to project change. Here are a few points to consider:

1. Iraq. This is the top issue by far right now, but evidence suggests that it may be overshadowed by a possible war with Iran and some mega-issues, listed below. There could also be "Iraq fatigue" next year. And, curiously, the Republicans (once they have a new face leading them and dominating the news coverage) could position them- selves as the "peace party." What's the scenario? Troop with- drawals as planned in April, followed by more troops removed before the August 2008 convention, and then a third drawdown before Election Day. Republicans could then say, "We have done what Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid could not accomplish."

2. Mega-Issues. There are several large issues that will be very impor- tant. First are health care and the economy. I combine these two issues, which are individually tied for second and third place, because the chief cause of economic anxiety today is health care. One in three American voters who have employer-based health insurance are afraid of losing all or some of their benefits. Next is immigration. While there is a very vocal and intense minority of those who want a radical stance against illegal immigration, this is an issue that ultimately will hurt Republicans. The party runs the risk of alienating Hispanics in 2008, just as it did in 2006-when the GOP earned just 28 percent of the Hispanic vote compared to 40 percent in 2004.

3. Young People. This is anoth- er group very alienated from the Republican Party. This group of 18 to 29 year olds gave John Kerry 61 percent of their vote and they were one-fifth of the total electorate. Pre- election polling suggests that the numbers of young voters will grow.

There is so much more that can be said, but I still expect the general election to be highly competitive because the Democrats remain in a reactive mode as Republicans control the discussion of many issues. Democrats need to remind them- selves they are not running against George W. Bush (12/1/2007)