A Report by Fritz Wenzel – Senior Political Writer

June 20, 2004 – Third in a series

In a two-week stretch that included more positive economic news and mixed reports from the troubled Middle East, President Bush continued to improve his standing among Americans in key states, wresting the lead in the race for the White House from Democratic Challenger John Kerry of Massachusetts, the latest Zogby Interactive poll shows.

The poll, conducted June 14-19, shows Mr. Bush would win 285 Electoral College votes, compared to 253 for Mr. Kerry.

It marks the first time in the three polling periods conducted so far that Mr. Bush has taken the lead in the race, gaining 43 votes in the last two weeks and 67 in the last month. But races in many states are still so close as to leave the result unclear.

Mr. Bush has taken the lead, however slim, in four states in which he was trailing two weeks ago (Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and West Virginia), three of which he won four years ago. Having lost control of those states, Mr. Kerry gained the lead in just one state he was losing two weeks ago (Arkansas).

Zogby Interactive’s Electoral College Race So Far:	6/20	6/6	5/23
President George W. Bush	285	242	218
MA Sen. John Kerry	253	296	320

The Zogby Interactive Battleground States poll assumes that, in the 34 states not included in the poll, the candidate of the party who won the state in the 2000 presidential election will again win it in 2004. Those Electoral College figures have been added into the totals included in this chart.

Developments in the two-week stretch since the last Zogby Interactive polling was conducted in the 16 key battleground states were as unusual as any so far. The campaign for the White House was put on ice for about half of the period, as former President Ronald Reagan was laid to rest. In regal ceremonies from coast to coast, he was hailed as one of the most important American leaders in history.

Feted as a staunch defender of freedom in a dangerous world, and as the author of an economic policy that brought the nation back to prosperity from the brink of ruin, his name was promoted as one who should grace everything from Mount Rushmore to the ten dollar bill.

That week, Democrat John Kerry and Republican President George Bush both suspended official campaign activities out of respect, but while Mr. Kerry slipped out of public view – except for a brief appearance at the Reagan library to pay a final tribute – Mr. Bush used his incumbency to retain a spot in the national media limelight. He remained at the center of news coverage during the G-8 leadership summit at Sea Island, Georgia, then delivered a heartfelt eulogy to Mr. Reagan at the National Cathedral, which was carried to a wide national television audience.

Once the former president was buried at his California library overlooking the majestic Pacific Ocean, the presidential race began to resemble its past form. The Bush campaign went back on the air in the battleground states with a television commercial that highlighted what the spot said was Mr. Bush’s Reaganesque (though the spot makes no direct reference to the former president) optimistic view of America, while calling Mr. Kerry a pessimist.

Mr. Kerry did not air ads, deciding instead to resume his fund-raising efforts with stops in the key states of Ohio and Michigan, raising more than $1 million at each of different events. Like he has in past visits to the industrial Midwest, Mr. Kerry focused on problems in the economy, but his visit to Ohio came just as the state’s unemployment rate dropped, signaling an improvement in the jobs picture. However, Michigan’s unemployment rate increased for May, compared to April, to coincide with his visit there.

Perhaps more important economic news to average Americans: gas prices have declined – significantly – in most parts of the nation during the last two weeks.

Independent groups that have attacked the Bush presidency since before the start of the year went back on the air after the Reagan funeral, hammering away at the President’s credibility and off-setting Mr. Kerry’s advertising silence.

Other news events that may have affected the psyche of poll respondents during the polling period were a nasty spate of violence acts in Iraq in the run-up to the turnover of power from the American-led coalition to the Iraqi Governing Council. Top Iraqi officials and oil industry officials were assassinated, and the nation’s oil output was crippled with attacks on pipelines.

Despite on-going disarray overseas, Mr. Kerry focused on domestic issues, choosing not to exploit the growing problems in the Middle East, which included car bombs in Iraq that killed dozens, mostly Iraqis, and the murders of two Americans working in Saudi Arabia. One victim there was held as a high-profile hostage before pictures of his beheading were posted on the Internet late last week, which came late in the sampling for this edition of the poll.

With speculation heating up last week about Mr. Kerry’s “short list” of potential running mates, one man conspicuously took himself out of the running in dramatic fashion. Not only did moderate Republican Arizona Senator John McCain say “No thanks” to Mr. Kerry’s cross-party trial balloon, he went out on the campaign trail with President Bush.

The remaining names at the top of the list are reportedly Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri, who hails from a key state included in this survey, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whose state is not thought to be in play this fall. We may know the identity of Mr. Kerry’s vice presidential choice by the next Zogby Interactive poll.

The interactive polling is conducted simultaneously in 16 key battleground states, with each state poll standing by itself and carrying its own margin of error. Using this method, it is possible to extrapolate an accurate picture of how the Electoral College votes would be distributed, and therefore, who would win the presidency.

The Electoral College tally cited in this report assumes that, in the remaining 34 states not included in the poll, the outcome of the vote would be the same as in the 2000 presidential election. In those states, Mr. Bush holds a 17-vote advantage, 189 to 172. This takes into account the shift in Electoral College votes following the 2000 U.S. Census, which shifted votes, mainly from states in the Midwest and Northeast, which are losing population, to states in the South and West, which are experiencing population gains.

Considering the shift in Electoral College votes, if the 2000 presidential election (in which Mr. Bush won, 271-266, with one abstention) were replayed exactly, Mr. Bush would now win with a slightly larger margin, 278 to 260. The successful candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown of the race:

ARKANSAS	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	45%	51%	50%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	47	43	45
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	2	2	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	6	4	4

MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points

While the poll two weeks ago found Arkansans feeling better about the direction in which the nation was headed, with about an equal percentage of them feeling good about its direction and feeling negative about it, the pessimism of a month ago has returned. Just 42% believe things are going in the right direction, compared to 54% who are displeased. It is not surprising, therefore, that Mr. Kerry has taken over the lead here.

Only those who live in the suburbs have a positive view of where the country is headed, and they favor Mr. Bush by a 65% to 35% margin. Mr. Bush also leads in rural Arkansas, but Mr. Kerry dominates by cites by a wide margin.

Mr. Kerry leads among women, 48% to 40%. Oddly, Mr. Bush’s overall approval rating, at 51%, is higher than Mr. Kerry’s, which sits at 47%. However, the strength of negative sentiment against Mr. Bush is strong – 42% strongly disapprove of him.

While 53% say it is time for someone new, just 45% say Mr. Bush should be re-elected. The number of undecideds increased by 2% since the last poll, and may be headed from the Bush to the Kerry camp.

BACKGROUNDER: Modern-day Arkansas is a typical southern state that shows favor both for Republicans and for southern Democrats. Bill Clinton won his home state in both 1996 and 1992, and Georgia’s Jimmy Carter cruised to victory here in 1976. But it turned its back on Clinton’s vice president four years ago; George Bush won here by more than 5 percent over Al Gore, whose southern credentials were in question throughout the region. It wasn’t the first time Arkansas gave up on a fellow southerner - at the height of troubled economic times that featured high inflation and higher interest rates, Ronald Reagan narrowly snared the state from Carter in 1980.

ARKANSAS COLLEGE VOTES: 6

FLORIDA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	50%	48%	47%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	46	50	48
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	3	1	4

MOE +/- 2.6 percentage points

The president’s improvement here can be found among older residents, Florida’s fastest-growing demographic category. Two weeks ago, he held a 15-point lead, and that has now increased to 17 points among those age 65 and older. Mr. Bush also holds his own among other age groups, except those between ages 18 and 29, where Mr. Kerry leads, 61% to 35%. However, younger voters are not nearly as likely as older voters to go to the polls.

More than half – 51% - have a favorable overall opinion of the president, compared to just 44% of Floridians who have a favorable opinion of John Kerry. Among those 65 and older, Mr. Bush’s approval ratings dwarf those of his challenger, winning 56% approval, compared to just 39% approval for Mr. Kerry.

Likely voters here are evenly split on whether they feel the nation is headed in the right direction, with 48% saying it is, and 49% saying it is not.

The bright spot for Mr. Kerry: he leads among moderates, 63% to 35%.

BACKGROUNDER: Home to the election debacle of 2000, Florida has favored Republicans when there wasn’t a southern Democrat at the top of the ticket. Mr. Clinton won it in 1996, but was narrowly defeated in 1992 by the current president’s father. Before that, Republicans controlled it reliably in the modern era with the exception of 1976, when Jimmy Carter from Georgia next door was on the ballot. Democrat Lyndon narrowly won the state in 1964, which amounted to one of the better showings Republican Barry Goldwater had nationwide - an election in which he won only six states, five of them in the south. It is unclear what impact the president’s brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will have on the election, but Jeb, now in his second term, has grown in popularity.

FLORIDA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 27

IOWA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	47%	48%	50%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	49	49	45
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	2	1	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	2	2	4

MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points

Mr. Kerry continues to lead here, largely on the strength of support from moderates and those who live in cities. Among moderates, Mr. Kerry holds a 72% to 24% edge over Mr. Bush.

But Mr. Kerry’s advantage may owe to the fact that Iowans are not happy with the direction of the country. While 43% say things are headed in the right direction, 54% say they are not. Residents of this state’s many small cities are particularly alarmed, as 59% say things are off on the wrong track.

Both men are having trouble selling themselves to Iowans. Mr. Kerry holds an overall approval rating of 49%, compared to just 45% for Mr. Bush. Among women, 56% have a favorable view of Mr. Kerry, but trouble lurks elsewhere. As the Democratic presidential candidate, Mr. Kerry could typically expect strong support from organized labor. But in Iowa, nearly half – 45% - have a negative view of him.

Also, Catholics in Iowa also appear down on the challenger – just 37% have a favorable opinion of Mr. Kerry, a Roman Catholic himself from Boston, one of the most Catholic cities in the nation. Protestants give him a better time of it, as 44% have a positive view of him.

BACKGROUNDER: Iowa has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, having gone with the party’s nominee in each of the last four presidential votes, including a surprisingly easy win for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Al Gore won the state in 2000 in what was one of the closest state races in the nation, having won by just over 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast. The state remains up for grabs, though John Kerry has a soft spot for Iowa, which gave him an important first victory in the caucuses that propelled him to a quick string of overwhelming primary victories.

IOWA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7

MICHIGAN	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	47%	45%	41%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	46	49	50
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	2	1	2
OTHER/UNDECIDED	5	5	7

MOE +/- 3.2 percentage points

Like the poll two weeks ago, Mr. Bush continues to make headway here among males, who continue to get more optimistic about the future of the nation and Mr. Bush’s leadership. But like Missouri, this race is absolutely up in the air.

Among men, Mr. Bush leads here, 54% to 41%, an improvement of four points for Mr. Bush in the last two weeks. Unlike many places, a majority of men here – 52% - feel the country is headed on the right course. And more men than not feel Mr. Bush should be re-elected.

Women don’t agree. Just 39% said he should be re-elected, while 57% said it is time for someone new.

Mr. Kerry retains his strength among moderates here, leading 58% to 32%. In the suburbs, this race is a dead heat, tied at 47%. Among those in big cities, in which there is really only one – Detroit – Mr. Kerry leads, 54% to 38%, but he also leads by a few points in small cities. Mr. Bush dominates in the vast areas of rural Michigan, holding a 60% to 34% edge over Mr. Kerry.

BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won a comfortable 5-point victory in this car capital in 2000, in part because members of the United Auto Workers had Election Day off as a negotiated holiday that was spent volunteering for get-out-the-vote efforts. Bill Clinton won Michigan in both his elections, but the state was reliably Republican for several votes before that, starting with Richard Nixon in 1972 and including Favorite Son Gerald Ford’s 1976 candidacy. Ronald Reagan won it in 1980 and 1984, and George H. W. Bush won in 1988.

MICHIGAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 17

MINNESOTA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	45%	44%	42%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	50	51	51
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	3	2	3
OTHER/UNDECIDED	2	3	2

MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points

The race is close here for the same reason it is close in most battleground states – respondents are not terribly enamored with the way things are going, but they do not appear to be overly happy with the alternatives to President Bush.

Here, Mr. Bush’s overall approval rating matches his standing in the horserace question: 45%, with his job approval rating at 43% and 55% saying it is time for someone new to be president. More than half – 53% - say the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

He is well-liked in the suburbs, where 64% say they support him, compared to 33% for Mr. Kerry. The President also holds a small margin in Minnesota’s small towns and rural parts of the state. In St. Paul and Minneapolis, though, Mr. Kerry is far ahead, winning 67% support. He also does well among women, 59% of which support him in the race, compared to just 39% for Mr. Bush.

BACKGROUNDER: Minnesota Republicans have to go back to 1972 to find a win here, though George Bush came close four years ago. Reliably liberal, Al Gore nearly stumbled here, winning the state by less than 2.5 percent, largely on the strength of his support in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Ralph Nader also ate into his margin here, winning 5 percent of the vote.

MINNESOTA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10

MISSOURI	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	49%	49%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	48	48	47
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	2
OTHER/UNDECIDED	2	2	7

MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points

This key state replaces Florida for now as the state that is simply too close to call, as Mr. Bush ekes out a miniscule lead. He has an edge among those who live in the suburbs, in small cities, and in rural Missouri, while Mr. Kerry leads by a wide margin in large urban areas, mainly St. Louis.

Mr. Kerry’s continued weakness among African-Americans continues to be seen here, as his advantage is just 52% to 48% for Mr. Bush. This could spell trouble for the Democratic challenger, as his party’s nominee usually must do much better in the demographic to win the White House. He does much better among Hispanics.

Another trouble spot for Mr. Kerry – union households, where he also leads, but by a razor-thin 49% to 47% margin. However, Mr. Bush holds just as narrow a lead among those in non-union households, showing that the volumes of campaign rhetoric about jobs and the economy have had little effect to move the demographic toward either candidate.

Among moderates, Mr. Kerry leads, 65% to 31% for Mr. Bush, while 47% statewide think the nation is headed in the wrong direction. An identical percentage feel Mr. Bush should get another four years.

BACKGROUNDER: A modern-day bellwether, Missouri has voted with the presidential winner in every election since Dwight Eisenhower narrowly lost the state to challenger Adlai Stevenson in his 1956 re-election bid. Mr. Bush won the state by a narrow margin four years ago amid questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some St. Louis precincts that may have swung a U.S. Senate race from the hands of incumbent John Ashcroft to Democrat Jean Carnahan, the widow of Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash weeks before the election. It remains unclear how the controversial Ashcroft, now the U.S. Attorney General, will impact the presidential race here this fall.

MISSOURI ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

NEVADA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	47%	44%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	45	47	47
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	4	2	3
OTHER/UNDECIDED	4	7	4

MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points

President Bush is on a winning streak here among suburban respondents, who have, in the last two weeks, changed their tunes about the direction of the nation. While they make up a small sliver of the population here, 58% said they are pleased now with how things are going, up from just 35% two weeks ago.

Still, just 46% overall say the nation is heading on the right track, while 52% think things are headed in the wrong direction.

Mr. Bush, who won this state four years ago, has seen a strong improvement among men, 56% of whom support him, compared to just 37% for Mr. Kerry. Mr. Bush’s numbers improved eight points since the last Zogby Interactive poll in the category.

While Mr. Kerry has an approval rating of 47%, Mr. Bush is slightly higher, at 49%.

Ralph Nader, at 4%, has his strongest showing to date, owing to support among union households, and those under age 30 who earn about $25,000 per year.

BACKGROUNDER: Nevada tends to give Democrats small presidential victories and Republicans large ones, but the 2000 race was closer than expected, with George Bush winning it by less than 4 percent. Mr. Clinton won the state by about 3 percent in 1992, but nearly lost it four years later. He might have lost it in both elections had it not been for H. Ross Perot, who won more than 26 percent of the vote in 1992, and more than 9 percent in a lackluster 1996 repeat performance. The state, while small, is home to Las Vegas, one of the fastest growing cities in the nation.

NEVADA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

NEW HAMPSHIRE	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	43%	44%	40%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	46	49	50
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	2	2	2
OTHER/UNDECIDED	9	5	5

MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points

Ten percent more people disapprove of Mr. Bush here than approve of him, which would ordinarily spell disaster for an incumbent looking for re-election. His saving grace is that those in the Granite State feel just about the same way about Mr. Kerry, his top competitor, which probably explains why 9% favor another candidate or can’t yet bring themselves to commit to one of the front-runners.

New Hampshire residents are down in the mouth about how things are going in America. nearly six in ten – 57% feel things are on the wrong track, while just 40% believe things are going fine. Proof that Mr. Kerry is having trouble sealing the deal among the state’s pessimists: just 79% of those who say things are going badly support Mr. Kerry.

Another problem for him here: Mr. Bush leads among the state’s African-Americans. Mr. Bush also leads among those in labor union households.

Among those age 65 and older, 13% say they will either vote for Ralph Nader, someone else, or simply cannot make up their minds – an unusually high percentage for the Zogby Interactive poll results thus far. A similar percentage say they could change their minds again before Election Day.

BACKGROUNDER: This was a Bush state in 2000, but just barely. In a region saturated with Democratic red on the electoral map, Bush won by just over 7,000 votes, less than 1.3 percent. This is one of those states Al Gore could cite to prove Ralph Nader cost him the White House. The ticket of Nader and Winona LaDuke won 3.9 percent of the vote, more than three times the Bush margin of victory over Mr. Gore. Bill Clinton won the state easily in 1996 and narrowly in 1992. Before that, Democrats have to go all the way to 1964 to find a presidential victory in this small but fiercely independent, right-leaning state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 4

NEW MEXICO	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	43%	48	43%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	50	48	48
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	2	3
OTHER/UNDECIDED	6	2	6

MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points

If New Hampshire residents are pessimistic, New Mexicans are in a downright funk. Just 40% said the nation is headed in the right direction, while nearly 60% said things are on the wrong track.

Not surprisingly, 55% said it is time for a new face at the White House, while 43% said Mr. Bush should be re-elected. Gains he made two weeks ago among young respondents here has since evaporated, as is reflected in his dipping poll numbers.

Mr. Kerry wins a 52% overall approval rating here, and is favored by 58% of women, compared to 45% of men who give him the thumbs-up. Among singles, 72% like him, compared to 42% of married New Mexicans.

Overall, 44% in the state give Mr. Bush a positive overall approval rating, while just 41% approve of the job he is doing as President.

BACKGROUNDER: New Mexico featured one of the closest races in the nation four years ago, with Al Gore winning the state by less than 400 votes – or 0.06 percent - out of almost 600,000 cast. It was only the second time in 100 years that the state has not favored the winning candidate – the other being 1976, when Gerald Ford narrowly edged Jimmy Carter here. As with Florida, the governor here – Hispanic Democrat Bill Richardson – could have an impact on the outcome.

NEW MEXICO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

OHIO	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	51%	49%	45%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	45	46	49
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	3	4	5

MOE +/- 2.5 percentage points

Mr. Bush has begun to build strength in this key Midwestern industrial state, pulling outside of the margin of error in a state that was unusually close four years ago. The President’s strength comes from the many suburbs of the state. Two weeks ago, he had a two-point lead there, but has since stretched it to 11 points, leading 54% to 43%. This comes after the Bush campaign and the state GOP ran an extensive voter outreach program during the last two weeks.

Mr. Kerry retained his wide lead in the several large cities of Ohio, and ate away at some of the Bush support among senior citizens. Bush still leads among those age 65 and older, 54% to 44%.

Thinking of how things are going, 48% of Ohioans believe think the nation is headed in the right direction, while 49% believe it is off on the wrong track.

Mr. Bush wins a 52% overall approval rating from Ohioans, while Mr. Kerry has an approval rating of just 45%.

Among Catholics, Mr. Bush leads, 57% to 40% for Mr. Kerry, who has been pummeled here over the controversy surrounding his conflict with church leaders over his pro-choice stance on abortion.

BACKGROUNDER: This was an unexpectedly close race in 2000, when George W. Bush eked out a 3.5 percent victory. Bill Clinton won it in both 1996 and 1992, but it was Republican territory in 1988, 1984, and 1980. The race was incredibly close in 1976, with Democrat Jimmy Carter winning the state’s 25 electoral college votes by just over 11,000 votes – or less than 0.3 percent – out of 4.1 million cast. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, which is one reason the state is considered “Ground Zero” for this year’s presidential race. Republicans control state government here and are well-organized, but Democrats are trying to catch up.

OHIO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 20

OREGON	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	44%	45%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	51	51	50
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	3
OTHER/UNDECIDED	4	3	3

MOE+/- 3.9 percentage points

Mr. Kerry’s lead remains solid in this reliably liberal West Coast state, in part on his growing strength in the key suburbs, including those that ring Portland and include many of the state’s voters. Leading narrowly there two weeks ago, he has widen his edge to a 50% to 42% margin.

He also leads in the state’s big cities – mainly Portland – by a 64% to 32% for Mr. Bush.

Like in many other states, Mr. Kerry does well among youthful respondents, leading among those under 30 by a 59% to 37% margin. Among those age 31 to 49, he leads by a 60% to 35% margin.

Mr. Bush has a 47% approval rating, compared to 49% for Mr. Kerry. Just 42% feel the nation is moving in the right direction. Woman are particularly downcast, with just 34% thinking things are okay.

Mr. Bush’s job approval rating in Oregon sits at a stagnant 44%.

BACKGROUNDER: The 2000 presidential race in Oregon was unexpectedly close, with Democrat Al Gore winning by 3 percent. Bill Clinton easily won in 1996 and 1992, thanks in part to third-party candidate H. Ross Perot, who won nearly a quarter of the vote here in 1992. It was one of the few bright spots for Michael Dukakis in 1988, an election that reflected a significant moderate-to-liberal movement in the electorate. Before that, Republicans won Oregon in five straight elections between 1984 and 1968.

OREGON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7

PENNSYLVANIA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	45%	45%	43%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	52	52	51
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	2	1	2
OTHER/UNDECIDED	1	2	4

MOE +/- 3.4 percentage points

Democrat John Kerry maintains a solid lead here, largely on the strength of working voters in a state where unions still matter. He leads in all age categories under age 65, and among union households, where he dominates by a 61% to 35% margin. He leads in the suburbs – normally a favorable demographic for Mr. Bush – by a 50% to 46% margin.

Pennsylvanians are unhappy. 53% say the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and, despite the fact that President Bush has made more trips to this state than almost any other, the locals aren’t necessarily buying what he has to sell. Just 44% give him a positive job approval rating, and 54% say they think it is time for someone new.

Mr. Kerry holds a slight 495 to 48% lead among men here, but enjoys a 56% to 41% edge among women. He needs to hold leads here, as it is doubtful he can win the presidency without this state.

Mr. Kerry leads by wide margins in the state’s large cities – Pittsburgh and Philadelphia – and by slight margins in smaller cities. Mr. Bush leads among those tucked away in Pennsylvania’s rural communities tucked between the rolling hills and deep valleys by a 51% to 45% margin.

BACKGROUNDER: This big, industrial state with two major anchor cities – Philadelphia in the east and Pittsburgh in the west - volleys back and forth in presidential elections. Democrat Al Gore won here by just over 4 percent in 2000. Bill Clinton won it easily in both 1996 and 1992. Republicans George H. W. Bush won it in 1988, as did Ronald Reagan in both of his elections. Democrat Jimmy Carter won narrowly in 1976. Richard Nixon lost the state in 1968, but won it easily in his 1972 re-election bid. Next to Ohio, this may be the key state in the nation.

PENNSYLVANIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 21

TENNESSEE	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	57%	54%	49%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	39	43	47
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	3	2	3

MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points

This is becoming a runaway state for Mr. Bush on the strength of support from both the young and the old. Among those age 65 and older, Mr. Bush has made incredible headway, now leading 70% to 30% over Mr. Kerry. Two weeks ago, Mr. Kerry led in the sub-group, 57% to 39%. Among those age 30 to 49, Mr. Bush leads by a 61% to 35% margin.

Reverting to type as a typical Southern state, the only Tennessee respondents who favor Mr. Kerry live in the state’s big cities. Otherwise, this state is all about Mr. Bush. Fifty-four percent think things are moving in the right direction, an unusually high number compared to the other battleground states. The plain truth is just that Tennessee respondents don’t seem to like Mr. Kerry. Just 37% give him a positive approval rating, compared to 58 percent who said they have a positive view of Mr. Bush.

While more respondents than not in almost every other state in the poll think it is time for someone new to be president, there are more Tennessee volunteers that say Mr. Bush should have another four years.

BACKGROUNDER: This is home to disappointment for Democrat Al Gore, who lost his home state and the presidency here in 2000. But that outcome continued this state’s habit of voting for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1960. Then, Richard Nixon won the state but lost to John Kennedy, who, like this year’s Democratic nominee-in-waiting, was a senator from Massachusetts. The closest modern election here came not four years ago, but in 1980, when Republican Ronald Reagan defeated southerner Jimmy Carter by less than 5,000 votes – less than 0.3 percent – out of more than 1.6 million cast.

TENNESSEE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

WASHINGTON	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	45%	44%	45%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	52	52	53
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	2	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	2	2	1

MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points

Mr. Kerry’s continued strength in this state’s large cities – mainly Seattle – buoy him, as respondents there favor him by a 61% to 37% margin. Those getting their careers established – ages 30 to 49 – favor Mr. Kerry by a wide 57% to 39% margin, while Mr. Bush leads in that demographic in other states in the poll.

Mr. Bush does have an edge among those in small cities and rural Washington. The pair are tied in its suburbs, an area where Mr. Bush has shown strength elsewhere.

In a bit of a twist, Mr. Kerry leads among men here, 49% to 47%, while his lead among women, usually very large, is only 10 points. He leads there, 54% to 44%.

Comparing respondents in different income levels, Mr. Bush leads only among those making less than $25,000 per year. Washingtonians appear settled in the matter of who to support in the presidential race, as 96% said they are unlikely to change their minds between now and Election Day.

Just 44% here said they think the nation is headed in the right direction.

BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won Washington comfortably four years ago, with a 5.5 percent margin, especially considering that third-party liberal Ralph Nader won another 4 percent. Mr. Gore’s strength is in the population centers west of the Cascade Mountains, including Seattle. The rest of the state was Bush territory. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, with Michael Dukakis eking out a narrow win over the current president’s father in 1988.

WASHINGTON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

WEST VIRGINIA	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	49%	44%	48%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	43	47	46
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	2	2
OTHER/UNDECIDED	6	7	4

MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points

Poll numbers here show West Virginians are ones to hold a grudge. Mr. Bush is well-liked among respondents here, perhaps more so than anywhere else in the nation right now. He has a personal approval rating of 56%, and a job approval rating of 53%, though just 45% believe the nation is headed in the right direction.

Nearly half – 49% - say Mr. Bush should be re-elected, while 47% say it is time for someone new.

Mr. Kerry has strong support among those living in big cities here, 71% to 29%, though there aren’t many to speak of. In the much more plentiful rural settings that are tucked between the rolling hills, Mr. Bush leads, 55% to 36%, perhaps because of fear of Mr. Kerry’s environmental policies that locals fear could harm the local coal industry.

Mr. Bush leads among both men and women. Among men, he has a 52% to 41% edge, while women favor him by a 47% to 45% margin.

Things could change here. While a large majority of 85% say they will probably stick with their choices through the election, that is a lower percentage than in most other states.

BACKGROUNDER: A small state surprise in 2000, West Virginia went for Republican George Bush by a comfortable margin of more than 6 percent. Before that, it had been in Democratic hands since 1988, when northerner Michael Dukakis defeated the president’s father here. Reliably Democrat, it was one of only six states that went for Jimmy Carter in 1980.

WEST VIRGINIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

WISCONSIN	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23

President George W. BUSH	46%	45%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. KERRY	51	50	52
Consumer Activist Ralph NADER	1	1	1
OTHER/UNDECIDED	2	4	3

MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points

John Kerry gained in Wisconsin’s large cities, and Mr. Bush gained in rural parts of the state, essentially offsetting each other as the overall numbers remained almost the same.

Mr. Bush made significant gains among Catholics here, to 58% from 52% two weeks ago, again probably at the cost of Mr. Kerry’s troubles with some Catholic bishops over the abortion issue. But, again, it doesn’t appear to have hurt Mr. Kerry’s overall numbers here. With 10 electoral votes at stake, he must win this state to win the presidency.

Residents here have a slightly improved view of the world, as 46% feel things are going in the right direction, up from 42% two weeks ago.

Mr. Kerry’s overall approval rating remained nearly constant, improving one point from 48% to 49%. Mr. Bush also improved minimally, from 45% approval to 46%.

The key to this state may be the gender gap. Mr. Bush holds just a narrow 51% to 46% edge over Mr. Kerry among men, but trails by a 57% to 42% margin among women.

BACKGROUNDER: Wisconsin was another one of those razor-thin victories for Democrat Al Gore four years ago in an election defined by them. He won the state by less than 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast. With an independent streak, more than 20 percent of voters opted for H. Ross Perot in 1992, perhaps handing the state to Democrat Bill Clinton, who won it by less than 5 percent over President George H. W. Bush. If the presidential challenger is serious, as in 1980 and 1992, this state seems to give them a good look. If not, regardless of party, Wisconsin tends to stick with what they know, as in 1972, 1984, and 1996.

WISCONSIN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10

Pollster John Zogby: “This is so incredibly close but, make no mistake about it, the President has gained on Senator Kerry. Mr. Bush has had a solid two weeks from the good will generated by the memorial to Ronald Reagan to the reminder of how ugly the war on terrorism can be with the horrific beheading of an American hostage. Since Mr. Kerry has not established his national security credentials, Mr. Bush will gain on that issue as Al Qaeda’s actions outrage the entire world.

“But this is all so close. Remember we are not likely to see huge bounces for either candidate for a while not only because the country is so closely competitive but also because virtually all of these states remain so evenly divided culturally, ideologically, and by party identification.

“Undeniably, the President has made impressive gains while the Kerry campaign steadily plods along. All the more reason why Mr. Kerry’s Vice-Presidential choice and his performance at the Democratic National Convention will be so vital to his future.

“At the same time, the past two weeks do show that events can move voters in one direction or the other. Again, the shifts may not be large – but their impact can be seismic as we look at the hypothetical electoral votes.”