Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry did some good for his campaign by choosing John Edwards, a U.S. senator from North Carolina, as his running mate, the latest edition of the Zogby Interactive collection of polls in battleground states shows.

Mr. Kerry has regained an advantage in the Electoral College race for the White House in the latest round of simultaneous polling in 16 key states in the 2004 Presidential election, which began as Mr. Kerry was announcing his selection during a rally in Pittsburgh. But while Mr. Kerry has gained some momentum from his vice presidential candidate selection, the polls show the race for the White House is simply too close to call. The poll results in several states in the poll are within the margin for error.

In Tennessee, for instance, the candidates are exactly tied, down to the tenth of a percent. Tennessee’s 11 Electoral College votes have been excluded from the latest tally in the chart below that also recaps past results in this extensive survey program.

Tennessee had been in the Bush category three weeks ago, when the last interactive polling was conducted.

The addition of Mr. Edwards to the Democratic ticket ended months of speculation, and it remains unclear whether this latest poll captures the extent of the public relations “bump” the Kerry ticket will experience because of the selection, or whether it captures just the beginning stages of something that could expand as time goes by.

There are political arguments both ways. Some say that Mr. Edwards has just started to campaign, and that his boyish charm, good looks, and silver tongue can only continue to impress respondents and move poll numbers up, while others say that because he won extensive attention in the Democratic primaries earlier this year, he is a known quantity that won’t move polls much more.

Zogby Polls: The Electoral College Race So Far:	7/12	6/20	6/6	5/23
President George W. Bush	205	285	242	218
MA Sen. John Kerry	322	253	296	320

PLEASE NOTE: The calculations that go into the latest Electoral College tally contain poll results from many states that are simply too close to call when the margins for error are considered. Still, in order to come up with numbers and identify a leader, that candidate with a lead in a particular state, no matter how small, was awarded that state’s votes. Therefore, changes in the Electoral College numbers from the last poll three weeks ago (6/20) may be more dramatic than may be warranted. Tennessee’s 11 Electoral College votes are excluded from the calculations altogether because the candidates are tied, down to the tenth of a percent.

Remember when reading the chart above that the Zogby Interactive poll assumes that, in the 34 states not included in the poll, the vote for President will be the same as it was in 2000. Considering that, in those 34 states, Mr. Bush would lead in the Electoral College by a 189 to 172 margin. This tally takes into account changes in the allocation of Electoral College votes after the 2000 U.S. Census.

Because each state poll is independent of the others and stands on its own, each carries its own margin of error. That margin is noted at the base of each state chart.

Given those changes in the allocation of those votes nationwide, if there were an exact repeat of the 2000 vote, Mr. Bush’s margin of victory would increase from 271-266 (with one abstention) to 278-260, as population generally shifted from the North and East to the South and West, and congressional representation also shifted to reflect the change.

There was no question that, of the three weeks just past that included the July 4 holiday, the Edwards addition to the Democratic ticket dominated the political landscape. It was almost as if, when the choice was announced last week, all that had come before was forgotten. The pair criss-crossed the country together, meeting supporters and raising millions for their campaign and for the Democratic National Committee.

Their first two stops together were in Ohio, perhaps the most important state of all in the Presidential race.

The polls show that the “Two Americas” theme employed by Mr. Edwards during the primary election season is an appropriate descriptor for the nation. But while Mr. Edwards referred to the “haves” and “have nots,” the Zogby shows the nation is divided along political lines.

The Bush campaign welcomed Mr. Edwards to the race two ways – first with cordial reactions to reporters’ questions in which Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney said they looked forward to “a spirited contest.” Meanwhile, they ran television advertisements in key states that featured popular Arizona Sen. John McCain, who praised the president as a strong leader in uncertain times.

The underlining message of the ads was that Mr. McCain was Mr. Kerry’s first choice for Vice President, a play on speculation earlier this summer that Mr. Kerry was courting his good friend and longtime colleague from the Senate to cross party lines to form a bi-partisan ticket.

Mr. McCain’s public appearances soon after with President Bush, where he introduced Mr. Bush in glowing terms that are captured in the television ad, deflated the Kerry trial balloon.

Just days before the Kerry selection of Mr. Edwards was made public, the Bush campaign sent Mr. Cheney out on the campaign trail to Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania – all key states included in this poll package – to stir up supporters.

Saddam Hussein was the odd man out in the last polling period. All but forgotten because of the creation of the Kerry/Edwards team was the appearance in court of a trimmer, well-groomed former dictator, still adamant about his claim on the Presidency of Iraq.

Notable was the surprise handover of governmental control in Iraq – two days earlier than the June 30 deadline – to Iraqi officials. The move seemed to blunt efforts by terrorists and insurgents to launch violent attacks against Americans and Iraqi leaders, but low-level violence continued in the days after the handover.

On the domestic front, in the days leading up to the July 4 holiday weekend, a less-than-sterling jobs report indicated that the robust return of new employment had taken a month off, as just over 100,000 new spots were filled. That amounted to about half what was projected, and, while the White House said it was not disappointed with the numbers, Wall Street didn’t exactly jump for joy.

Other economic news of the period included a 0.25% rise in the federal funds interest rate, the first such rise in quite some time that signaled the beginning of an effort by the Federal Reserve to control what it feared could be an inflationary economy on the mend. The move signals little to the common man, except that the economy is growing in strength somewhat and the Fed apparently feels it needs to be ready to step in to cool it off in the future.

Another major factor affecting the political race is the stepped-up fund-raising activity of the Kerry campaign, which has pulled within striking distance of the Bush/Cheney machine. They still trail the incumbent, but not by that much anymore. Both campaigns are also dumping millions into advertising in key states in this last month before the conventions begin.

Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown:

ARKANSAS	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	47%	45%	51%	50%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	45	47	43	45
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	4	2	2	1
Undecided	4	4	2	3

MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points

Mr. Bush holds a negligible lead here, which is erased when considering the margin of error. When the vice-presidential candidates Cheney and Edwards are added to the question, it barely makes a difference, adding a point to the Kerry/Edwards ticket. This is just too close to call, and seems to volley back and forth.

There is a slight improvement in the sentiment Arkansans hold about the direction in which the country is moving compared to three weeks ago. Suburban and rural residents are most pleased, poll numbers show, as are those who are older.

Still, Mr. Bush still faces an uphill battle for the hearts and minds of people here. Asked if he should be re-elected or if it is time for someone new, 53% want someone new, while 44% said he deserves a second term. Males are more pro-Bush than females on this question here, as are those who make more money.

BACKGROUNDER: Modern-day Arkansas is a typical southern state that shows favor both for Republicans and for southern Democrats. Bill Clinton won his home state in both 1996 and 1992, and Georgia’s Jimmy Carter cruised to victory here in 1976. But it turned its back on Clinton’s vice president four years ago; George Bush won here by more than 5 percent over Al Gore, whose southern credentials were in question throughout the region. It wasn’t the first time Arkansas gave up on a fellow southerner - at the height of troubled economic times that featured high inflation and higher interest rates, Ronald Reagan narrowly snared the state from Carter in 1980.

ARKANSAS COLLEGE VOTES: 6

FLORIDA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	44%	50%	48%	47%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	51	46	50	48
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	3	1	1	1
Undecided	2	2	2	1

MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points

This is some of the biggest news in this edition of the polling, as President Bush has lost substantial ground here. While a slight majority said three weeks ago that they had an overall favorable opinion of him, that has slipped to 45% in the latest poll. Even among those who had the highest opinion of his – senior citizens – he has lost ground.

Just 43% have a favorable view of the job Mr. Bush is doing as President, and 54% of Floridians said it is time for someone new, compared to 44% who said he should get another four years.

Many more here (56%) said things are on the wrong track, compared to 42% who said things are headed in the right direction. Meanwhile, 52% had a favorable overall opinion of Mr. Kerry, up 8% from the survey here three weeks ago.

When the vice presidential candidates are added to the horserace question, the Bush/Cheney ticket actually gains ground. Still, they trail here.

BACKGROUNDER: Home to the election debacle of 2000, Florida has favored Republicans when there wasn’t a southern Democrat at the top of the ticket. Mr. Clinton won it in 1996, but was narrowly defeated in 1992 by the current president’s father. Before that, Republicans controlled it reliably in the modern era with the exception of 1976, when Jimmy Carter from Georgia next door was on the ballot. Democrat Lyndon narrowly won the state in 1964, which amounted to one of the better showings Republican Barry Goldwater had nationwide - an election in which he won only six states, five of them in the south. It is unclear what impact the president’s brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will have on the election, but Jeb, now in his second term, has grown in popularity.

FLORIDA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 27

IOWA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	47%	47%	48%	50%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	48	49	49	45
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	2	2	1	1
Undecided	3	1	2	1

MOE +/- 4.9 percentage points

As the chart indicates, not much has changed here in the past three weeks. Iowans still don’t seem happy with the direction of the country, as just 42% said it is moving down the right track, and 54% say they are displeased with how things are going.

Still, Mr. Bush has the approval of about half the respondents, as does Mr. Kerry, perhaps not a surprise in a state where one of the most popular political figures, U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin, was a strong supporter of insurgent Democratic candidate Howard Dean in the run-up to the caucuses last January. Mr. Harkin campaigned hard against Mr. Kerry here, and residents may be remembering that.

There doesn’t seem to be too much disappointment here that Governor Tom Vilsack, who was touted as a finalist for the Veep spot on the Democratic ticket, was passed over in the end. When the vice presidential candidates are added to the horserace question, the Kerry ticket gets a two-point bump.

BACKGROUNDER: Iowa has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, having gone with the party’s nominee in each of the last four presidential votes, including a surprisingly easy win for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Al Gore won the state in 2000 in what was one of the closest state races in the nation, having won by just over 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast. The state remains up for grabs, though John Kerry has a soft spot for Iowa, which gave him an important first victory in the caucuses that propelled him to a quick string of overwhelming primary victories.

IOWA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7

MICHIGAN	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	44%	47%	45%	41%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	50	46	49	50
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	3	2	1	2
Undecided	4	3	3	5

MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points

People here are growing more pessimistic about the direction of the nation, and they are taking it out on President Bush. He doesn’t lag too far, but he has suffered in the last three weeks, to Mr. Kerry’s benefit. Still, this race is within the margin of error, but not by much.

Men who had favored Mr. Bush have soured on him, at least temporarily. Just 42% approve of the job he is doing, and 42% of men think Mr. Bush should be re-elected. Fifty-six percent said it is time for someone new.

Married respondents here hold better news for Mr. Bush. A majority believes things are doing okay, and he leads among the married, 55% to 41% for Mr. Kerry.

BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won a comfortable 5-point victory in this car capital in 2000, in part because members of the United Auto Workers had Election Day off as a negotiated holiday that was spent volunteering for get-out-the-vote efforts. Bill Clinton won Michigan in both his elections, but the state was reliably Republican for several votes before that, starting with Richard Nixon in 1972 and including Favorite Son Gerald Ford’s 1976 candidacy. Ronald Reagan won it in 1980 and 1984, and George H. W. Bush won in 1988.

MICHIGAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 17

MINNESOTA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	44%	45%	44%	42%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	49	50	51	51
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	2	3	2	3
Undecided	5	1	1	2

MOE +/- 4.1 percentage points

Like many other states, Minnesota gives us a picture of just how divided the nation is politically right now. Asked whether the nation is heading in the right direction, 95% of Republicans said “Yes,” while 94% of Democrats said “No.” These people are living side by side, but see vastly different worlds.

Ninety-six percent said they are unlikely to change their minds in the Presidential race between now and November.

Mr. Kerry leads in the horserace question among those in households who earn less than $50,000, and among those who consider themselves political moderates. Mr. Bush has a comfortable lead among married Minnesotans and among males, while Mr. Kerry leads by a wide margin among women and singles, most of who are young – another demographic group in which Mr. Kerry and most Democrats tend to do well.

Mr. Bush leads among Catholics here, 51% to 41%.

As the chart indicates, independent candidate Ralph Nader is not a factor here.

BACKGROUNDER: Minnesota Republicans have to go back to 1972 to find a win here, though George Bush came close four years ago. Reliably liberal, Al Gore nearly stumbled here, winning the state by less than 2.5 percent, largely on the strength of his support in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Ralph Nader also ate into his margin here, winning 5 percent of the vote.

MINNESOTA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10

MISSOURI	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	47%	49%	49%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	50	48	48	47
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	1	2
Undecided	2	1	2	5

MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points

Respondents here seem to like President Bush well enough, and they are only slightly displeased with the direction of the country. While 52% said it is moving in the wrong direction, 46% said things were okay, one of the pockets where residents are comparatively optimistic.

It just seems like if they don’t like Mr. Bush, they don’t feel there are any better options. Mr. Bush has an overall approval rating of 48%, a rating identical to challenger John Kerry.

There was some talk here that home state Congressman Dick Gephardt might end up on the ticket – speculation so strong it fooled the New York Post into believing it and erroneously printing it on their front page last week – and locals seem to have given the Democratic ticket, sans Gephardt, a bit of a bump. But the nudge is small, and the race here is within the margin of error.

Married respondents here give Mr. Bush a wide 59% to 39% lead over Mr. Kerry, but those with kids under age 17 favor Mr. Kerry by a 54% to 43% margin, perhaps because of the uncertainty of the future that will face their children in this new post-9/11 world.

BACKGROUNDER: A modern-day bellwether, Missouri has voted with the presidential winner in every election since Dwight Eisenhower narrowly lost the state to challenger Adlai Stevenson in his 1956 re-election bid. Mr. Bush won the state by a narrow margin four years ago amid questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some St. Louis precincts that may have swung a U.S. Senate race from the hands of incumbent John Ashcroft to Democrat Jean Carnahan, the widow of Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash weeks before the election. It remains unclear how the controversial Ashcroft, now the U.S. Attorney General, will impact the presidential race here this fall.

MISSOURI ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

NEVADA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	45%	47%	44%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	43	45	47	47
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	6	4	2	3
Undecided	6	3	3	4

MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points

More people here than not disapprove of the direction in which the nation is headed, but that’s epidemic in this edition of the Zogby Interactive poll. What is different is that Nevadans don’t hold President Bush responsible for too much of it. While just 42% say things are heading in the right direction, 51% give him an overall positive approval rating, which is better than challenger Kerry (49%).

While 44% say Mr. Bush should be re-elected, 50% say it is time for someone new.

Good news for the Kerry camp here: when the horserace question is asked including the vice presidential candidates of Dick Cheney and John Edwards, Nader supporters and the Undecided move toward the Democrats. In that circumstance, the Kerry/Edwards ticket picks up 48% support, compared to 46% for Bush/Cheney.

This race is a dead heat at 45% for Mr. Kerry and 44% for Mr. Bush in Las Vegas, but Mr. Bush owns the vote in among the sagebrush of rural Nevada, of which there is a great deal.

BACKGROUNDER: Nevada tends to give Democrats small presidential victories and Republicans large ones, but the 2000 race was closer than expected, with George Bush winning it by less than 4 percent. Mr. Clinton won the state by about 3 percent in 1992, but nearly lost it four years later. He might have lost it in both elections had it not been for H. Ross Perot, who won more than 26 percent of the vote in 1992, and more than 9 percent in a lackluster 1996 repeat performance. The state, while small, is home to Las Vegas, one of the fastest growing cities in the nation.

NEVADA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

NEW HAMPSHIRE	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	40%	43%	44%	40%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	49	46	49	50
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	2	2	2
Undecided	10	7	1	5

MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points

Slowly, Mr. Kerry is beginning to convince this lone New England state to support Mr. Bush in 2000 that maybe he’s their guy this year. But it is going very slowly. Three weeks ago, just 79% of those who thought things were going in the wrong direction in America were willing to support Mr. Kerry. Now, he’s up to 84%

All the while, the percentage of Undecideds are on the increase. This, however, could also be good news for Mr. Kerry, as the challenger usually gets the lion’s share of Undecideds who break late in the race.

If this is the only state to change hands from Republican to Democrat this year, compared to 2000, it would not be enough for Mr. Kerry to overtake Mr. Bush in the Electoral College tally. Mr. Bush has deep trouble here, as only 83% of Republicans say they support him in the horserace question, and just 79% here say he should be re-elected.

BACKGROUNDER: This was a Bush state in 2000, but just barely. In a region saturated with Democratic red on the electoral map, Bush won by just over 7,000 votes, less than 1.3 percent. This is one of those states Al Gore could cite to prove Ralph Nader cost him the White House. The ticket of Nader and Winona LaDuke won 3.9 percent of the vote, more than three times the Bush margin of victory over Mr. Gore. Bill Clinton won the state easily in 1996 and narrowly in 1992. Before that, Democrats have to go all the way to 1964 to find a presidential victory in this small but fiercely independent, right-leaning state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 4

NEW MEXICO	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	42%	43%	48	43%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	49	50	48	48
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	3	1	2	3
Undecided	6	3	2	2

MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points

Just 42% of respondents here said they support Mr. Bush for re-election, but 44% said they think he deserves another four years at the White House. This state, won by Democrat Al Gore four years ago and home to a very popular Democratic governor (Bill Richardson) who was considered a finalist for the Veep slot this time around, appears to be following its typecasting.

While Mr. Kerry leads here almost enough to get outside the margin of error, there are trouble spots for him in his base, which includes a heavy percentage of Hispanic voters. Just 86% of Democrats here said they support Mr. Kerry for President.

Mr. Kerry leads in cities and in suburbs here, but trails badly in the rural parts of the state. This is one state where Mr. Kerry’s controversial relationship with leaders of his own faith don’t seem to be hurting him. He leads among Catholics, 62% to 26%.

BACKGROUNDER: New Mexico featured one of the closest races in the nation four years ago, with Al Gore winning the state by less than 400 votes – or 0.06 percent - out of almost 600,000 cast. It was only the second time in 100 years that the state has not favored the winning candidate – the other being 1976, when Gerald Ford narrowly edged Jimmy Carter here. As with Florida, the governor here – Hispanic Democrat Bill Richardson – could have an impact on the outcome.

NEW MEXICO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

OHIO	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	48%	51%	49%	45%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	49	45	46	49
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	1	1
Undecided	3	1	2	4

MOE +/- 2.7 percentage points

Mr. Kerry has paid a lot of campaign attention to Ohio in the last three weeks, and the poll numbers appear to show that attention is paying off. He’s got a strong base here, though not as strong as President Bush, and may have profited from the decision to hold the first two joint campaign events with newly minted running mate Edwards within this state’s borders.

He is also running an attractive, positive biographical television ad here that ignores his opponent. Among key demographics here, including the state’s many suburban voters and among women, he is doing well. As is typical, he also does well in large cities, of which there are many in Ohio. Mr. Kerry’s weakness is in the rural stretches between cities and in the small towns that dot the rolling Ohio landscape.

People here like Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry equally well, and have just a slight feeling that things are going worse for the nation than they should.

A trouble spot for Mr. Kerry can be found among the large population of Catholics, which are turning against him in droves. Here, he trails among those of his own faith, 59% for Mr. Bush to 39% for Mr. Kerry. Mr. Bush, a Protestant, leads among those of his own faith by 19%.

BACKGROUNDER: This was an unexpectedly close race in 2000, when George W. Bush eked out a 3.5 percent victory. Bill Clinton won it in both 1996 and 1992, but it was Republican territory in 1988, 1984, and 1980. The race was incredibly close in 1976, with Democrat Jimmy Carter winning the state’s 25 electoral college votes by just over 11,000 votes – or less than 0.3 percent – out of 4.1 million cast. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, which is one reason the state is considered “Ground Zero” for this year’s presidential race. Republicans control state government here and are well organized, but Democrats are trying to catch up.

OHIO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 20

OREGON	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	42%	44%	45%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	52	51	51	50
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	2	1	1	3
Undecided	4	1	2	2

MOE +/- 4.1 percentage points

President Bush’s dip in the polls here is probably due to a further increase in those who think the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Just 41% said they think things are going fine, while 57% were displeased.

An identical 41% said Mr. Bush should be re-elected.

In Portland, the state’s only really large city, Mr. Kerry leads by a 68% to 27% margin, a significant edge. In the suburbs, it is essentially a dead heat. Mr. Bush leads in small cities by a comfortable margin, and by a wide margin in rural Oregon.

Here, unlike in New Mexico, those respondents in households with children under the age of 18 favor Mr. Bush. The President also leads among the married and the separated or divorced, while single households and those living together favor Mr. Kerry.

BACKGROUNDER: The 2000 presidential race in Oregon was unexpectedly close, with Democrat Al Gore winning by 3 percent. Bill Clinton easily won in 1996 and 1992, thanks in part to third-party candidate H. Ross Perot, who won nearly a quarter of the vote here in 1992. It was one of the few bright spots for Michael Dukakis in 1988, an election that reflected a significant moderate-to-liberal movement in the electorate. Before that, Republicans won Oregon in five straight elections between 1984 and 1968.

OREGON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7

PENNSYLVANIA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	45%	45%	45%	43%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	52	52	52	51
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	2	1	2
Undecided	2	1	1	4

MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points

Mr. Kerry’s lead here comes from his strength in the state’s two major cities – Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. There, seven in every ten respondents say they favor the Democratic challenger. Mr. Kerry’s lead right now is barely inside the margin of error of the poll here.

As is the case almost everywhere else, Mr. Kerry benefits from those who think things are off-track in America. Just 43% said they think things are headed in the right direction, and just 45% have a positive overall opinion of President Bush. By contrast, 54% said they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Kerry.

It appears that Mr. Kerry has locked down labor union support here, a critical factor in a state that has been a major industrial player. He leads among those with a union member in their household, 67% to 32%. Meanwhile, in those households with no union member, the race is a dead heat.

BACKGROUNDER: This big, industrial state with two major anchor cities – Philadelphia in the east and Pittsburgh in the west - volleys back and forth in presidential elections. Democrat Al Gore won here by just over 4 percent in 2000. Bill Clinton won it easily in both 1996 and 1992. Republicans George H. W. Bush won it in 1988, as did Ronald Reagan in both of his elections. Democrat Jimmy Carter won narrowly in 1976. Richard Nixon lost the state in 1968, but won it easily in his 1972 re-election bid. Next to Ohio, this may be the key state in the nation.

PENNSYLVANIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 21

TENNESSEE	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	48%	57%	54%	49%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	48	39	43	47
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	1	1
Undecided	3	3	1	2

MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points

While this race has tightened dramatically in the last three weeks, making competitive what had almost become a runaway state, it remains clear that respondents here still aren’t big fans of John Kerry. He may be tied with Mr. Bush in the horserace question, but he still trails Mr. Bush, 46% to 49%, in overall favorability. But with both candidates failing to win the support of even every other respondent, people here may just prefer their sipping whiskey to either. Or maybe the whiskey makes them more tolerable. That factor was not included in the poll.

Mr. Bush leads here by a wide margin in the suburbs, an important voting bloc that has favored Mr. Kerry in other states. But he leads by an equally large percentage in the state’s big cities.

Mr. Bush saw erosion in all age categories of adults since the last poll, most notably among those age 65 or older, where he lost 18 points.

Forty-eight percent said Mr. Bush should be re-elected, while 51% said it is time for someone new.

BACKGROUNDER: This is home to disappointment for Democrat Al Gore, who lost his home state and the presidency here in 2000. But that outcome continued this state’s habit of voting for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1960. Then, Richard Nixon won the state but lost to John Kennedy, who, like this year’s Democratic nominee-in-waiting, was a senator from Massachusetts. The closest modern election here came not four years ago, but in 1980, when Republican Ronald Reagan defeated southerner Jimmy Carter by less than 5,000 votes – less than 0.3 percent – out of more than 1.6 million cast.

TENNESSEE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

WASHINGTON	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	44%	45%	44%	45%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	53	52	52	53
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	2	1
Undecided	2	1	1	1

MOE +/- 3.0 percentage points

Unlike Tennessee, this state is steady as she goes, a reliable West Coast Democratic enclave, dominated by the Puget Sound city of Seattle, where Mr. Kerry leads by a 67% to 31% margin over Mr. Bush. All other geographic areas favor Mr. Bush, but by much smaller margins not large enough to overcome Seattle.

Both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush have locked up their bases here, the poll shows. There isn’t much labor union presence here, but Mr. Kerry leads both in households with and without a union member. In union households, he leads, 52% to 45%, and in non-union households, he has a 53% to 45% advantage.

Just 43% here feel things are moving in the right direction. Forty-five percent give Mr. Bush a positive job approval rating, while 44% say he should be re-elected. Fifty-two percent have a positive overall opinion of Mr. Kerry.

BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won Washington comfortably four years ago, with a 5.5 percent margin, especially considering that third-party liberal Ralph Nader won another 4 percent. Mr. Gore’s strength is in the population centers west of the Cascade Mountains, including Seattle. The rest of the state was Bush territory. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, with Michael Dukakis eking out a narrow win over the current president’s father in 1988.

WASHINGTON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

WEST VIRGINIA	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	51%	49%	44%	48%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	43	43	47	46
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	2	2
Undecided	5	1	2	3

MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points

There may be a reason that President Bush is making a habit of spending part of his July 4^th holiday in West Virginia nearly every year – it is one of those rare places in the Zogby battleground poll where more people than not have a generally positive outlook on how things are going.

But it is close, as 51% say things are doing fine, compared to 45% who have a negative point of view.

Here, everyone seems to like the President. It’s about the only place in America where he leads in big cities. His lead in that demographic here is nearly 20%. He’s also favored in the suburbs and in small cities by wide margins. Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry are deadlocked among those who live in rural West Virginia.

A sign that Mr. Kerry’s New England brand of Democratic politics doesn’t sell well here: just 68% of Democrats say they support their party’s standard bearer, perhaps in part because the Bush campaign has hammered away at how Kerry environmental policies could damage the state’s hefty coal industry. Still, Mr. Kerry remains barely within the poll’s margin of error.

BACKGROUNDER: A small state surprise in 2000, West Virginia went for Republican George Bush by a comfortable margin of more than 6 percent. Before that, it had been in Democratic hands since 1988, when northerner Michael Dukakis defeated the president’s father here. Reliably Democrat, it was one of only six states that went for Jimmy Carter in 1980.

WEST VIRGINIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5

WISCONSIN	July 6-10	June 14-20	June 1-6	May 18-23
President George W. Bush	44%	46%	45%	44%
Mass. Senator John F. Kerry	53	51	50	52
Consumer Activist Ralph Nader	1	1	1	1
Undecided	2	2	2	1

MOE +/- 4.2 percentage points

A basic rule in politics is that if more people are against you, you lose, and President Bush is losing here, even without another candidate being in the race. Asked if he should be re-elected or if it is time for someone new, 44% were with him, and 54% were against him.

Toss Mr. Kerry into the mix, and the chart above gives you the details. Mr. Kerry’s strength here comes from big cities, where he has the backing of two out of every three respondents. Mr. Bush leads among those in suburbs and in rural Wisconsin, but it’s not enough. Even men prefer Mr. Kerry here – something not seen elsewhere. The edge among men accentuates the 57% to 42% advantage the challenger already enjoys among women,

People are not enamored with Mr. Kerry, the poll shows, as just 51% give him a positive overall approval rating. It’s just that they like him more than the incumbent, who wins a job approval rating of just 43%.

Catholics here favor Mr. Bush by a 55% to 42% margin, but the margin for Mr. Bush is not as large as it is in other Midwestern states. He leads by 20% among Protestants.

BACKGROUNDER: Wisconsin was another one of those razor-thin victories for Democrat Al Gore four years ago in an election defined by them. He won the state by less than 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast. With an independent streak, more than 20 percent of voters opted for H. Ross Perot in 1992, perhaps handing the state to Democrat Bill Clinton, who won it by less than 5 percent over President George H. W. Bush. If the presidential challenger is serious, as in 1980 and 1992, this state seems to give them a good look. If not, regardless of party, Wisconsin tends to stick with what they know, as in 1972, 1984, and 1996.

WISCONSIN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10

Pollster John Zogby: Before anything else is considered, these states are all very close. Too close. Kerry obviously had a good week. His choice of Edwards generated excitement among his base. And the suspended multi-day roll- out made this week all about Kerry-Edwards, all the time. The Senate committee report on CIA intelligence failures probably helped, too.

But there is so little elasticity in this electorate. Every one of these states is technically within the margin -of- error. But clearly there has been some movement since our last series three weeks ago.

The most dramatic result here is in Tennessee, where Bush led by 18 last time. Frankly I had begun to make the case of dropping Tennessee and replacing it with North Carolina- but not so fast after all. This is one further sign that Edwards might play well in the south. In our national telephone surveys, the gap in the south closed from Bush 53% to Kerry 35% in early June. But now it is Bush 50% to Kerry 40%. If these numbers hold in the south, the President's game play will be thrown off as they will at least have to spend more time and resources in the previously thought safe region.

But then Edwards' magic doesn't seem to be working in West Virginia.

Nader can be a factor in changing Kerry's lead in five states- Arkansas, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Tennessee.

A majority opposes the President's re-election in fourteen of the sixteen states.

Ohio, which is critical to both sides, is tied.

Only tiny percentages say they are very likely to change their minds.