November 21, 2009
Political Polling
Recognized around the world as "the one who got it right" by media and clients alike, unbiased accuracy and timely, readable results make Zogby International the first choice for your political poll. Zogby International's focus on "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters" has proven to be the most accurate polling method time and time again in polls involving politics and public policy. As the nation watches the unfolding of the closest presidential race in history, tracking polls conducted by Zogby International in the last few weeks foretold a tightening of the race. We were the first to observe the gap closing significantly between Governor George W. Bush and Vice-President Al Gore in the waning hours of the election. Zogby International noted the division in the electorate nationwide and in several key states. This was not an easy election for any polling company to predict because it was agonizingly close. In 1996, we established a benchmark for accurate election polling, and we are proud that the methods we employed then, and now, proved to be just as reliable in this historic election. As Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal observed, "We are all so busy looking at Florida and wondering how it will play out that we have paid little attention to what appears to have been a stunning Bush collapse in the final week of the campaign. Pollster John Zogby was right - it was in the final days, and particularly the last weekend, that Mr. Bush's numbers went down and Mr. Gore surged." B. Drummond Ayres Jr. of the New York Times added, "Since the margin of sampling error for the six polls was plus or minus two to three percentage points, [the pollsters] could all claim to be generally on target. What is more, most could boast-especially, Zogbyand CBS News-that they picked up a definite increase in support for Mr. Gore in the final 24 hours or so of the campaign." Will Lester, of the Associated Press concurred, "Two national polls, by CBS News and New York Pollster John Zogby, put Gore in a narrow lead for the popular votes, which is exactly how the election turned out." Steve Schultz, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "The national pre-election honors went to Zogby International, Harris and CBS, whose results most closely mirrored the actual vote." D.F. Oliveria, The Spokesman-Review, "Zogby goes back to the head of the polling class." John G. Craig Jr., editor Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "The polls were rightÂ….In each instance, the actual vote was almost a perfect match for the (Zogby) poll-projected total. The exception was Florida, where the (Zogby) tracking data had Gore ahead by 3 percentage points. But even this was within the margin of error." Gore 48 Zogby International's outstanding record of November 7, 1996 CBS/NY Times 53% 35% 9% 18% Pew Research 49% 36% 8% 13% ABC News 51% 39% 7% 12% Harris 51% 39% 9% 12% NBC/Wall Street 49% 37% 9% 12% USA Today 52% 41% 7% 11% CNN/Gallup 52% 41% 7% 11% Hotline 45% 36% 8% 9% Zogby tracking polls foreshadowed
razor-thin Presidential outcome
Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll Zogby International
Final Results (Congressional)
Results Zogby
SpreadActual
Spread
Margin
of
Error
Winner
Winner Arkansas 04 (R) Ross(D) 44
Dickey(R) 47Ross(D) 51
Dickey(R) 49 3 2 5.4 Dickey(R) Ross(D) California 15 (R) Honda(D) 51
Cuneen(R) 40Honda(D) 55
Cuneen(R) 42 11 13 5.4 Honda(D) Honda(D) California 36 (R) Harman(D) 40
Kuykendall(R) 45Harman(D) 49
Kuykendall(R) 47 5 2 5.4 Kuykendall(R) Undeclared Florida 08 (D) Chapin(D) 38
Keller(R) 50Chapin(D) 49
Keller(R) 51 12 2 5.4 Keller(R) Keller(R) Kansas 03 (D) Moore(D) 49
Kline(R) 40Moore(D) 51
Kline(R) 47 9 4 5.4 Moore(D) Moore(D) Michigan 08(D) Byrum(D) 39
Rogers(R) 45Byrum(D) 49
Rogers(R) 49 6 0 5.4 Rogers(R) Rogers(R) Missouri 06 (D) Danner(D) 42
Graves(R) 45Danner(D) 47
Graves(R) 51 3 4 5.4 Graves(R) Graves(R) New Jersey 12 (D) Holt(D) 47
Zimmer(R) 37Holt(D) 49
Zimmer(R) 49 10 0 5.4 Holt(D) Undeclared Oklahoma 02 (R) Carson(D) 44
Ewing(R) 39Carson(D) 55
Ewing(R) 42 5 13 5.4 Carson(D) Carson(D) Pennsylvania 10 (R) Casey(D) 40
Sherwood(R) 46Casey(D) 47
Sherwood(R) 53 6 4 5.4 Sherwood (R) Sherwood(R)
Final Results
ResultsZogby
SpreadActual
Spread
Margin of
Error
Winner
WinnerReuters/MSNBC/
Zogby National
TrackingGore 48
Bush 46
Nader 5Gore 49
Bush 48
Nader 32 1 3.0 Gore Gore California
Presidential Gore 51
Bush 43
Nader 8Gore 54
Bush 42
Nader 48 12 4.0 Gore Gore Florida
Presidential
Bush 46
Nader 6Gore 49
Bush 49
Nader 22 0 4.0 Gore Undec. Senate Nelson 49
McCollum 47Nelson 52
McCollum 472 5 4.0 Nelson Nelson Illinois Presidential Gore 50
Bush 43
Nader 7Gore 55
Bush 43
Nader 27 12 4.0 Gore Gore Michigan Presidential Gore 51
Bush 45
Nader 4Gore 51
Bush 47
Nader 26 4 4.0 Gore Gore Senate Stabenow 51
Abraham 47Stabenow 50
Abraham 494 1 4.0 Stab. Stab. Missouri
Presidential Gore 47
Bush 48
Nader 3Gore 47
Bush 50
Nader 21 3 4.0 Bush Bush Senate Carnahan 49
Ashcroft 49Carnahan 51
Ashcroft 490 2 4.0 Tie Carn. New York Presidential Gore 56
Bush 37
Nader 6Gore 60
Bush 35
Nader 419 25 3.8 Gore Gore Senate Clinton 51
Lazio 48Clinton 56
Lazio 443 12 3.8 Clinton Clinton Ohio Presidential Gore 45
Bush 48
Nader 5Gore 46
Bush 50
Nader 33 4 4.0 Bush Bush Senate Celeste 31
DeWine 56Celeste 36
DeWine 6125 25 4.0 DeWine DeWine Pennsylvania
Presidential Gore 51
Bush 42
Nader 5Gore 51
Bush 47
Nader 29 4 4.0 Gore Gore Senate Klink 34
Santorum 52Klink 46
Santorum 5318 7 4.0 Sant. Sant. Tennessee Presidential Gore 45
Bush 52
Nader 2Gore 48
Bush 51
Nader 17 3 4.5 Bush Bush Senate Clark 28
Frist 62Clark 33
Frist 6634 33 4.5 Frist Frist Washington Presidential Gore 50
Bush 43
Nader 5Gore 50
Bush 45
Nader 47 5 4.5 Gore Gore Senate Cantwell 52
Gorton 47Cantwell 49
Gorton 495 0 4.5 Cant. Undec. Wisconsin Presidential Gore 46
Bush 46
Nader 6Gore 48
Bush 48
Nader 40 0 4.5 Tie Gore Senate Kohl 61
Gillespie 32Kohl 62
Gillespie 3829 24 4.5 Kohl Kohl
accuracy includes, these high profile campaigns:
Final Poll Projections, USA TodayPollster Clinton Dole Perot Margin Reuters/Zogby 49% 41% 8% 8% ACTUAL 49% 41% 8% 8%
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