Released: November 01, 2004

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

President Bush is holding steady at 48% and Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry lost one point, bringing him to 47%, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this evening has leaners factored into the overall results. The telephone poll of 1208 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 29-31, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

 

Days Until Presidential Election

 

2 Days

3 Days

4 Days

5 Days

6 Days

Presidential Candidates

Oct. 29-
31

Oct. 28-
30

Oct. 27-
29

Oct. 26-
28

Oct. 25-
27

Republican—George W. Bush

48

48

46

47

48

Democratic—John Kerry

47

48

47

47

46

Independent—Ralph Nader

1.2

1.2

1.8

1.4

1.2

Libertarian—Michael Badnarik

--

--

.2

.2

.2

Constitution—Michael Peroutka

.2

.1

.3

.3

.3

Green—David Cobb

--

.2

.2

.3

--

Other

.5

.7

.7

.7

.4

Undecided

3

2

3

3

4

* Leaners have been factored in to the results. Without leaners factored in: Bush 46%, Kerry 46%, Nader .9%, Undecideds 6%

 

2000—Days Until Presidential Election

Presidential Candidates

2 Days

3 Days

4 Days

5 Days

6 Days

Republican—George W. Bush

47

46

46

45

45

Democratic—Al Gore

46

44

42

42

42

Green—Ralph Nader

5

5

6

5

5

Undecided

7

7

7

7

7

Pollster John Zogby: "Razor thin margin here, if there is one at all. The President still does not get above 48%. The real news here is that 18-29 year olds favor Kerry 64% to 35%, with 1% for Nader—and 0% undecided. When I see a low undecided number it means that group is going to vote. I am factoring this group to be 12% of the total vote -- but it could be higher. Each point it goes higher translates into two-thirds of a percent for Kerry -- if these numbers hold up."

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1208 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 29 through October 31, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result, and was one of the first pollsters to accurately foresee Vice President Al Gore’s popular-vote victory in 2000. Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special
video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(11/1/2004)
     -


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