Released: November 01, 2004

Two Days Remaining

Election 2004 Zogby Battleground State Polls: Kerry Ahead in 6 States (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI); Bush Continues to Lead in 3 States (CO, NV, OH); New Mexico in Play, Tied at 49%, New Reuters/Zogby Ten States Battleground Poll Reveals

Democratic hopeful John Kerry continues to lead in six battleground states, and has surged to a tie in New Mexico, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby ten-state battleground poll. The poll also found President Bush continuing to lead in Ohio, Nevada and Colorado.  The telephone polls of approximately 600 likely voters per state were conducted from Thursday through Sunday (October 28-31, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Zogby International has narrowed the race for the White House down to ten battleground states.  While most of the other 40 states and the District of Columbia seem to be in the hands of one candidate or the other, some states (like New Hampshire or Arizona) could still produce late surprises. The following ten states are tops on our list (and everyone else’s list as well.) 

The fight for the Oval Office comes down to:

COLORADO                 9 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Bush

Poll of 602 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 25

47%

48%

1.6%

3%

Oct. 26

47%

49%

1.5%

3%

Oct. 27

46%

50%

1.1%

3%

Oct. 28

47%

48%

3%

3%

Oct. 29

47%

46%

3%

3%

Oct. 30

50%

45%

4%

1.7%

Oct. 31

48%

47%

2%

2%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

COORS (R)

SALAZAR (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

51%

.3%

7%

Oct. 25

44%

50%

.3%

6%

Oct. 26

43%

53%

.2%

5%

Oct. 27

42%

53%

.6%

4%

Oct. 28

43%

52%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 29

45%

50%

1.5%

4%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

.9%

5%

Oct. 31

44%

52%

.4%

4%

FLORIDA                          27 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Bush

Poll of 599 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

49%

46%

1.6%

4%

Oct. 25

48%

47%

2%

3%

Oct. 26

49%

45%

2%

4%

Oct. 27

48%

46%

2%

4%

Oct. 28

48%

47%

3%

3%

Oct. 29

45%

47%

4%

4%

Oct. 30

47%

49%

2%

2%

Oct. 31

47%

48%

2%

3%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

MARTINEZ (R)

CASTOR (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

44%

.6%

9%

Oct. 25

47%

47%

.2%

6%

Oct. 26

45%

48%

.4%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

45%

.7%

9%

Oct. 28

47%

45%

1.6%

7%

Oct. 29

46%

47%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 30

45%

48%

2%

5%

Oct. 31

46%

46%

1.6%

7%

IOWA                                   7 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 602 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

45%

2%

6%

Oct. 25

47%

44%

1.3%

8%

Oct. 26

45%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 28

44%

45%

4%

7%

Oct. 29

45%

44%

3%

8%

Oct. 30

46%

47%

3%

4%

Oct. 31

44%

50%

1.8%

4%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

GRASSLEY (R)

SMALL  (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

66%

25%

1.0%

8%

Oct. 25

65%

28%

.2%

7%

Oct. 26

66%

27%

--

7%

Oct. 27

68%

27%

.2%

5%

Oct. 28

71%

23%

.5%

6%

Oct. 29

70%

24%

.9%

5%

Oct. 30

69%

23%

1.8%

7%

Oct. 31

68%

22%

1.8%

8%

MICHIGAN                     17 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

52%

1.3%

4%

Oct. 25

43%

52%

1.3%

3%

Oct. 26

44%

49%

2%

5%

Oct. 27

47%

47%

1.3%

5%

Oct. 28

47%

45%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 29

48%

46%

1.0%

5%

Oct. 30

47%

48%

1.9%

2%

Oct. 31

45%

52%

2%

1.3%

MINNESOTA                  10 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

46%

4%

6%

Oct. 25

43%

48%

3%

7%

Oct. 26

44%

46%

2%

7%

Oct. 27

44%

47%

2%

6%

Oct. 28

46%

45%

3%

6%

Oct. 29

43%

49%

2%

6%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 31

47%

49%

2%

1.5%

NEW MEXICO                5 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

49%

44%

3%

4%

Oct. 25

50%

42%

2%

6%

Oct. 26

48%

43%

3%

6%

Oct. 27

47%

44%

4%

5%

Oct. 28

49%

43%

3%

5%

Oct. 29

51%

42%

3%

4%

Oct. 30

52%

43%

3%

2%

Oct. 31

49%

49%

.5%

1%

NEVADA                            5 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Bush

Poll of 603 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

44%

4%

4%

Oct. 25

50%

44%

3%

4%

Oct. 26

49%

46%

1.9%

3%

Oct. 27

51%

44%

1.7%

4%

Oct. 28

50%

45%

1.5%

4%

Oct. 29

51%

44%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 30

50%

46%

1.2%

3%

Oct. 31

50%

45%

1.7%

4%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

ZISER (R)

REID (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

31%

60%

.7%

8%

Oct. 25

31%

61%

1.0%

7%

Oct. 26

30%

59%

1.8%

9%

Oct. 27

34%

57%

1.6%

8%

Oct. 28

36%

56%

1.5%

7%

Oct. 29

37%

57%

.9%

5%

Oct. 30

36%

56%

1.1%

8%

Oct. 31

34%

58%

.7%

8%

OHIO                                   20 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Bush

Poll of 602 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

47%

42%

3%

8%

Oct. 25

46%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 26

46%

44%

3%

7%

Oct. 27

45%

46%

3%

6%

Oct. 28

44%

47%

3%

7%

Oct. 29

46%

45%

3%

7%

Oct. 30

49%

44%

4%

4%

Oct. 31

48%

44%

4%

4%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

VOINOVICH (R)

FINGERHUT (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

58%

30%

1.8%

11%

Oct. 25

55%

32%

1.1%

12%

Oct. 26

54%

32%

1.5%

12%

Oct. 27

58%

27%

.9%

14%

Oct. 28

59%

29%

.6%

11%

Oct. 29

59%

32%

.6%

8%

Oct. 30

55%

35%

1%

9%

Oct. 31

57%

33%

1.3%

9%

PENNSYLVANIA            21 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 600 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

45%

47%

1.5%

6%

Oct. 25

45%

48%

1.6%

6%

Oct. 26

45%

49%

1.1%

5%

Oct. 27

46%

49%

.7%

4%

Oct. 28

47%

47%

1.7%

5%

Oct. 29

44%

47%

3%

6%

Oct. 30

46%

49%

3%

3%

Oct. 31

45%

50%

2%

3%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

SPECTER (R)

HOEFFEL (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

38%

2%

12%

Oct. 25

53%

35%

2%

10%

Oct. 26

      54%

33%

3%

10%

Oct. 27

55%

29%

5%

11%

Oct. 28

53%

30%

5%

13%

Oct. 29

57%

28%

3%

12%

Oct. 30

54%

31%

3%

12%

Oct. 31

53%

32%

5%

10%

WISCONSIN                   10 Electoral Votes              2000 Vote:  Gore

Poll of 601 likely voters conducted Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.  Margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points.

 

ELECTORS FOR PRESIDENT

 

BUSH (R)

KERRY (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

48%

45%

3%

4%

Oct. 25

48%

46%

2%

4%

Oct. 26

46%

48%

1.6%

4%

Oct. 27

46%

50%

1.4%

4%

Oct. 28

46%

49%

1.2%

4%

Oct. 29

45%

50%

1.8%

3%

Oct. 30

44%

52%

2%

2%

Oct. 31

44%

51%

3%

2%

 

U.S. SENATE

 

MICHELS (R)

FEINGOLD (D)

Other

Undecided

Oct. 24

42%

54%

.4%

4%

Oct. 25

41%

54%

--

4%

Oct. 26

38%

57%

.1%

5%

Oct. 27

36%

59%

.1%

5%

Oct. 28

37%

57%

.3%

6%

Oct. 29

37%

57%

.2%

6%

Oct. 30

37%

57%

.7%

5%

Oct. 31

36%

59%

.7%

4%

Zogby International conducted interviews of approximately 600 likely voters in each of ten battleground states.  The likely voters were chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 28 through October 31, 2004. Margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points in each state.  Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result, and was one of the first pollsters to accurately foresee Vice President Al Gore’s popular-vote victory in 2000. Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(11/1/2004)
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