Zogby Battleground Poll: McCain Regains Indiana; Obama Still Surpasses Electoral Threshold With 273
McCain Makes Gains in Several States
UTICA, New York - Zogby Interactive polling of 10 Presidential battleground states has shown John McCain capturing a significant lead - for the time being - in the state of Indiana, causing the Hoosier State to move from purple to Republican red. The move increases the ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin to 174 Electoral College votes in the Zogby calculation. With no other changes to our Electoral College Map (available at www.zogby.com), the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden have 273 Electoral votes, three more than needed for election.
McCain has gained ground in Virginia (13 Electoral votes), Missouri (11), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5), but not enough to change their status.
| Electoral Vote Projection |
|
| Obama-Biden | 273 |
| McCain-Palin | 174 |
| Undecided | 91 |
The 10 interactive online surveys included in this survey were conducted from October 17-20, 2008. The samples of likely voters ranged in size from 473 respondents in Indiana, where the margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points, to Florida, where 1,252 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "These results show that with the Obama advantage in the current state of the Electoral College, McCain will need to rally his troops in every time zone to impact all of the states he needs to overtake Obama."
Here are the details of the 10 states we surveyed.
States Moving from Undecided to McCain-Palin
| Indiana (11) |
|
| McCain-Palin | 52.8% |
| Obama-Biden | 42.3% |
| Not Sure/Other | 4.9% |
Despite a big lead among independents, Obama appears unable to overcome the Republican enrollment advantage. So we make Indiana again red.
States Remaining for Obama
| New Mexico (5) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 46.1% |
| McCain-Palin | 45.5% |
| Not Sure/Other | 8.3% |
McCain has gained since our last survey of New Mexico on Oct 9-13, closing the Obama lead among independents and doing better among Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. We will soon test the state again, and will wait for that to see whether a status change is called for.
| Virginia (13) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 49.7% |
| McCain-Palin | 46.1% |
| Not Sure/Other | 4.3% |
Obama leads among independents and does slightly better among Democrats than McCain does with Republicans. Obama leads among all voters with family incomes under $100,000. Seniors go big for McCain.
States Remaining Undecided
| Ohio (20) |
|
| McCain-Palin | 49.3% |
| Obama-Biden | 46.5% |
| Not Sure/Other | 4.1% |
McCain continues to hold a small lead in a state he must win. McCain leads by more than 10 among independents, Catholics and voters older than 50. Turnout will be especially important here in a state with early voting for President for the first time ever.
| Colorado (9) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 48.2% |
| McCain-Palin | 47.9% |
| Not Sure/Other | 3.9% |
Loyalty to McCain from Republicans, who outnumber Democrats in Colorado, is keeping him toe-to-toe with Obama. However, Obama leads among independents by 19. McCain is also keeping it very close among voters ages 18-29.
| Florida (27) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 48.8% |
| McCain-Palin | 45.2% |
| Not Sure/Other | 6.0% |
A double-digit lead among independents gives Obama a small lead. McCain counters with his advantages among religious voters and seniors. The race is even among Hispanics.
| Missouri (11) |
|
| McCain-Palin | 48.3% |
| Obama-Biden | 48.0% |
| Not Sure/Other | 4.6% |
Both candidates run strongly with their base constituencies, and for now independents aren't breaking either way. So we have a tie.
| North Carolina (15) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 49.6% |
| McCain-Palin | 46.5% |
| Not Sure/Other | 3.8% |
Large margins among independents and voters under age 35 join African-Americans to give Obama a small lead. North Carolina may have the nation's biggest gender gap. Men favor McCain, 57%-40%. Women choose Obama, 61%-36%.
| New Hampshire (4) |
|
| Obama-Biden | 46.5% |
| McCain-Palin | 46.2% |
| Not Sure/Other | 7.7% |
Independents are tied and that is all you need to know. New Hampshire is too close to call.
| Nevada (5) |
|
| McCain-Palin | 51.5% |
| Obama-Biden | 44.0% |
| Not Sure/Other | 4.6% |
This is a 7-point swing from our last interactive poll on Oct. 9-13. Obama's Democratic support has slipped, while McCain's Republican support has gone up. We'll keep Nevada undecided.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1358
(10/21/2008)