UTICA, New York-An Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.
The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com.
In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.
See the Zogby map online to get Pollster John Zogby's state-by-state commentary on this latest polling.
In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two states-Pennsylvania and New Mexico - both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.
Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to have - at least for now - captured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCain's gains total 54 Electoral College votes, based in part on Zogby polling and in part by a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends.
All of McCain's gains come from moving toss-up states into his column-no states moved directly from Obama to McCain.
In the race for the White House, the winner must capture states worth at least 270 Electoral College votes, a majority of the total of 538 votes available.
The Horserace Now in the Eleven Battleground States:
| Horserace-Colorado | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 47.5% |
| Obama | 45.5% |
| Not Sure/Other | 7.0% |
| Horserace-Florida | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 52.1 |
| Obama | 41.8 |
| Not Sure/Other | 6.1 |
| Horserace-Michigan | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 43.3% |
| Obama | 49.0% |
| Not Sure/Other | 7.7% |
| Horserace-Missouri | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 48.5% |
| Obama | 42.4% |
| Not Sure/Other | 9.1% |
| Horserace-North Carolina | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 46.6% |
| Obama | 48.1% |
| Not Sure/Other | 5.3% |
| Horserace-New Hampshire | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 49.1% |
| Obama | 42.8% |
| Not Sure/Other | 8.1% |
| Horserace-New Mexico | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 44.1% |
| Obama | 45.6% |
| Not Sure/Other | 10.3% |
| Horserace-Nevada | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 50.1% |
| Obama | 42.5% |
| Not Sure/Other | 7.4% |
| Horserace-Ohio | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 49.8% |
| Obama | 43.9% |
| Not Sure/Other | 6.3% |
| Horserace - Pennsylvania | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 49.1% |
| Obama | 44.3% |
| Not Sure/Other | 6.6% |
| Horserace-Virginia | 9-9/12 |
| McCain | 50.3% |
| Obama | 43.8% |
| Not Sure/Other | 5.9% |
The 11 interactive online surveys included samples of likely voters ranging in size from 433 respondents in New Hampshire, where the margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points, to Florida, where 995 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The surveys were conducted Sept. 9-12, 2008.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1333
(9/13/2008)
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