The map now gives Obama 260 electoral votes, McCain 173, and 105 Electoral College votes in 12 states that Zogby considers too close to call. The changes are the conclusions of a Zogby International analysis of new Zogby interactive polling in 10 battleground states conducted August 15-19, 2008, as well other reputable polling, and other political factors.

Pollster John Zogby: "As we saw in our most recent Reuters/Zogby poll that has McCain ahead nationally, the dynamic of the race appears to be changing. This battleground poll of 10 states reflects that change. Obama has lost some support to the point where he is now below the Electoral College victory threshold."

In Florida, McCain holds a 45% to 40% edge over Obama in a head-to-head match-up, which is close, but his base is so much more solid that we see an advantage here (McCain wins 87% support among Republicans, while Obama wins just 76% support from Democrats). He also enjoys big leads over Obama among voters over age 50, of which there are many in the Sunshine state.

Pollster John Zogby: "McCain could be tailor-made for this state's demographic, and has the support of its very popular governor. He understands the issues facing most Floridians and relates well to huge swaths of the populace here. This is an electorate that is more likely than others to put a premium on experience. We are, however, watching Libertarian Bob Barr from neighboring Georgia, who now sits at 5 percent, but could hurt McCain going down the stretch. A rising Creative Class and a tough economy in the south could also help Obama."

In Colorado, Obama holds a 44%-41% lead in a head-to-head match with McCain. That lead over McCain grows to 44%-38% when Libertarian Bob Barr (8%) and independent Ralph Nader (2%) are included in the question.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama may have the edge now, but McCain's current national momentum leads us to hedge our bets on Colorado and switch this state from blue to purple. Support for Bob Barr brings too much uncertainty to the call."

In New Hampshire, a small Obama lead has shifted to a 42%-38% McCain lead in both head-to-head and four-way questions. Barr picks up a significant 11% support here in the Live Free or Die state. McCain holds a slim lead among independents.

Pollster John Zogby: "McCain, who won the GOP presidential primary twice here with strong support from independents, needs to win over conservatives. Obama needs to capitalize on the state's voters' worries about the economy and Iraq. Again, those people now for Barr may well decide New Hampshire."

Here are the results of four-way races in the 10 battleground states we polled:

Battleground States

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

Not Sure/Other

Colorado   (purple)

44%

38%

8%

2%

8%

Florida   (red)

40%

43%

5%

1%

12%

Michigan   (blue)

46%

37%

5%

1%

12%

Nevada   (purple)

39%

38%

10%

3%

10%

New Hampshire   (purple)

38%

42%

11%

1%

9%

New Mexico   (blue)

46%

37%

5%

1%

11%

North Carolina   (purple)

47%

39%

3%

2%

9%

Ohio   (purple)

41%

36%

8%

1%

13%

Pennsylvania   (blue)

46%

37%

5%

3%

8%

Virginia   (purple)

43%

41%

5%

1%

10%

Battleground States	Obama	McCain	Barr	Nader	Not Sure/Other
Colorado (purple)	44%	38%	8%	2%	8%
Florida (red)	40%	43%	5%	1%	12%
Michigan (blue)	46%	37%	5%	1%	12%
Nevada (purple)	39%	38%	10%	3%	10%
New Hampshire (purple)	38%	42%	11%	1%	9%
New Mexico (blue)	46%	37%	5%	1%	11%
North Carolina (purple)	47%	39%	3%	2%	9%
Ohio (purple)	41%	36%	8%	1%	13%
Pennsylvania (blue)	46%	37%	5%	3%	8%
Virginia (purple)	43%	41%	5%	1%	10%