Zogby International

Albanian Election Exit Poll

Albanian Election Exit Poll

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Released: June 29, 2009

Detailed Breakouts

Refusal Rates by County

	%
Berat	32.0
Diber	24.5
Durres	33.8
Elbasan	38.9
Fier	18.7
Gjirokstar	23.0
Korce	28.3
Kukes	20.8
Lezhe	37.9
Shkoder	31.4
Tirana	37.4
Vlore	28.7

National Right Track/Wrong Track

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll
Right Track	44	41	43	51	57	69
Wrong Track	41	45	46	37	32	23
Not Sure	15	14	12	12	12	8

National Right Track/Wrong Track: PS Voters

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll
Right Track	34	22	22	27	34	42
Wrong Track	57	64	69	59	52	46
Not Sure	10	14	8	13	13	12

National Right Track/Wrong Track: PD Voters

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll
Right Track	68	69	72	79	86	94
Wrong Track	20	21	18	15	9	3
Not Sure	13	10	10	6	6	3

National Vote By Party (%)

*2% of respondents did not mark a ballot. The refusal rate for the overall exit poll is not calculated into this number. Please see separate table for overall survey refusal rates.

National Vote By Party (%): By Age Group

	April			May-June			Exit Poll
	<34	35-54	55+	<34	35-54	55+	<34	35-54	55+
PS Voters	34	35	40	39	36	39	35	34	43
PD Voters	42	36	36	37	42	43	47	48	41

National Vote By Party (%): By Gender

	April		May-June		Exit Poll
	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
PS Voters	35	39	38	37	35	40
PD Voters	32	27	42	38	47	43

National Vote By Party (%): By Education

	April		May-June		Exit Poll
	< High School	High School +	< High School	High School +	< High School	High School +
PS Voters	34	37	38	37	35	38
PD Voters	43	35	39	41	47	45

National Demographics: Age

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll
18-24	18	17	18	17	19	21
25-34	18	19	19	21	20	17
35-44	20	21	21	21	19	19
45-54	21	21	20	20	20	20
55-64	15	13	12	13	13	13
65+	8	8	10	9	9	10

National Demographics: Gender

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll*
Male	52	50	49	49	47	59
Female	48	50	51	51	53	41

*There was no statistically significant difference between the voting patterns of males and females to merit weights being applied.

National Demographics: Education

	Jan	Feb	March	April	May-June	Exit Poll
None	1	1	1	1	1	1
Elem <4 years	3	4	5	4	3	4
Elem <8 years	28	30	28	34	27	27
High School	45	48	49	47	50	47
University	22	17	18	14	18	19
University +	1	<1	<1	<1	1	1

County Demographics: Age

	Berat		Diber		Durres
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
18-24	17	23	20	21	16	23
25-34	17	16	19	17	18	15
35-44	24	19	25	22	19	17
45-54	20	21	24	19	21	20
55-64	13	14	10	12	15	13
65+	8	11	2	10	10	12

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Elbasan		Fier		Gjirokastra
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
18-24	18	23	17	21	19	21
25-34	22	16	21	15	19	16
35-44	21	18	20	20	18	17
45-54	17	21	22	21	22	22
55-64	12	14	13	14	14	12
65+	9	8	8	9	10	12

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Korca		Kukes		Lezha
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
18-24	12	19	26	23	18	19
25-34	13	15	22	23	20	18
35-44	18	19	15	22	25	22
45-54	25	21	24	19	16	21
55-64	19	14	9	7	15	10
65+	13	11	4	7	7	10

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Shkodra		Tirana		Vlora
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
18-24	22	21	19	19	16	19
25-34	21	18	20	18	21	16
35-44	18	20	20	19	22	18
45-54	19	19	18	21	21	19
55-64	12	14	12	14	14	15
65+	8	9	11	10	7	14

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

County Demographics: Gender

	Berat		Diber		Durres
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
Male	49	60	51	61	45	61
Female	51	40	49	39	55	39

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county. There was no statistically significant difference between the voting patterns of males and females to merit weights being applied.

	Elbasan		Fier		Gjirokastra
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
Male	47	58	49	58	53	60
Female	53	42	51	42	47	40

	Korca		Kukes		Lezha
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
Male	53	56	47	68	47	65
Female	47	44	53	32	53	35

	Shkodra		Tirana		Vlora
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
Male	53	64	49	57	50	59
Female	47	36	51	43	50	41

County Demographics: Education

	Berat		Diber		Durres
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
None	--	1	--	2	2	1
Elem <4 years	4	5	2	7	5	4
Elem <8 years	30	30	32	35	37	28
High School	54	45	55	44	43	51
University	13	19	10	13	13	16
University +	--	1	1	<1	<1	<1

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Elbasan		Fier		Gjirokastra
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
None	1	2	1	1	1	1
Elem <4 years	4	5	4	5	6	6
Elem <8 years	35	32	35	31	30	23
High School	45	43	45	45	43	45
University	14	18	15	19	19	26
University +	--	<1	1	1	1	1

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Korca		Kukes		Lezha
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
None	1	1	5	4	<1	2
Elem <4 years	7	6	12	3	5	5
Elem <8 years	33	31	23	30	33	32
High School	44	47	43	49	48	50
University	15	15	17	19	13	11
University +	--	<1	--	1	1	<1

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

	Shkodra		Tirana		Vlora
	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll	Pre*	Exit Poll
None	--	1	<1	1	1	2
Elem <4 years	2	4	3	3	3	5
Elem <8 years	21	27	23	19	25	24
High School	52	49	50	51	49	46
University	25	19	23	24	23	22
University +	--	1	1	2	--	1

*'Pre' represents the aggregation of all pre-election demographic poll data by county.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1404

(6/29/2009)

Tags: Politics

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