November 20, 2009
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Zogby Interactive: McCain Wins Wal-Mart Shoppers, But Obama Prevailed at Target, Macy's, Costco & JC Penney
Post-Election Poll Asked Voters to Choose Favorite Dept. Store
UTICA, New York - John McCain won the biggest battle of the 2008 electoral war for retail consumers by taking voters who most prefer to shop at Wal-Mart by 17 points. However, that was not nearly enough to overcome Barack Obama's advantage with the most loyal shoppers of other national retailers. That's the bottom line of how shoppers and the U.S. electorate made Obama our 44th President.
Obama scored big increases over what John Kerry polled in 2004 at JC Penney, Sears, Kohl's and Target. We asked respondents: "If you could only shop at one of the following department stores for the rest of your life, which would you choose?" Using a different measure, weekly shopping at Wal-Mart, we found that Obama did much better than Kerry with that store's most frequent shoppers.
Those findings are part of the analysis of retail shoppers included in a Zogby Interactive poll of 24,964 voters conducted from Nov. 7-18, 2008. We also looked at the attitudes, values and demographics of these shoppers. Sample sizes for the department stores we tested ranged from 6,478 for Wal-Mart (margin of error +/-1.2%) to 310 for Marshall's (MOE +/-5.7%.)
In 2004, we asked the same question about the one store voters would choose in an interactive poll of 15,532 voters. We included 13 stores in the 2008 survey question, but limited our analysis to the 10 where the sample size in 2008 and 2004 was at least 300. In 2004, we did not include Wal-Mart and Costco.
Among the stores tested in both elections, Obama gained the most votes over Kerry's performance at Target, where he picked up nine points at a store chosen by 22% of voters. Also significant was JC Penney, where Obama reversed an 18-point Bush win in 2004 to a 13-point margin for him in 2008. JC Penney fans made up 5% of voters. McCain held Sears and Kohl's for the GOP, but by less than Bush won in 2004.
The following table shows the candidates' margins of victory for each store in both 2004 and 2008, and the increase for the Democrat Obama.
|
Store (% 08 Sample) |
2004 Result |
2008 Result |
Democrat Increase |
|
Wal-Mart (26%) |
NA |
McCain 58%-Obama 41% |
NA |
|
Target (22%) |
Kerry 54%-Bush 45% |
Obama 63%-McCain 36% |
+9 |
|
Macy's (9%) |
Kerry 59%-Bush 41% |
Obama 63% - McCain 37% |
+4 |
|
Costco (8%) |
NA |
Obama 56% - McCain 43% |
NA |
|
JC Penney (5%) |
Bush 59%-Kerry 41% |
Obama 56%-McCain 43% |
+15 |
|
Sears (5%) |
Bush 69%-Kerry 30% |
McCain 56% - Obama 43% |
+13 |
|
Kohl's (5%) |
Bush 61%-Kerry 39% |
McCain 51%-Obama 49% |
+10 |
|
Nieman Marcus (2%) |
Kerry 56%-Bush 44% |
Obama 59%-McCain 40% |
+3 |
|
Bloomingdale's (2%) |
Kerry 66%-Bush 34% |
Obama 67%-McCain 32% |
+1 |
|
Marshall's (1%) |
Kerry 54%-Bush 45% |
Obama 60%-McCain 40% |
+6 |
While Zogby International does not have a direct comparison on this question for Wal-Mart shoppers, beginning with an interactive poll done in May, 2005, ZI routinely asks respondents how often they shop at Wal-Mart. Here is a comparison of how self-identified weekly Wal-Mart shoppers in that May 2005 survey say they voted in the 2004 election, and what we found in our Nov. 2008 test.
|
Frequency Shop at Wal-Mart |
2004 Result |
2008 Result |
Democrat Increase |
|
Weekly |
Bush 76%-Kerry 24% |
McCain 55%-Obama 44% |
+20 |
Pollster John Zogby: "We are where we shop. Our 2008 results re-affirm that store shopping choices align with political ideology. Shoppers at Wal-Mart and Sears are clearly more conservative than the electorate at-large. On the left are Macy's, Nieman Marcus and Bloomingdale's. Elections are decided in in the middle, and Obama did that by winning Target, Costco, JC Penney and Marshall's by double-digits. If you want one indicator of how Obama pulled off an Electoral College landslide, look at Sears and Wal-Mart, where he significantly cut the Republican advantage Bush held over Kerry in 2004."
A Store's Shoppers & The Issues
The 2008 survey asked voters which issues were most important to them in their Presidential decision. They could choose more than one. None of the stores' deviated much from the 73% who chose the economy. However, differences were there on other issues.
On the need for change, 43% overall chose it, compared to the lows of 33% at Sears and 35% at Wal-Mart.
Experience was cited by 34% of all voters, but only 21% of Bloomingdale devotees chose it. The highest response came at Wal-Mart and Sears, both at 40%.
Terrorism was more important at Wal-Mart (41%) and Sears (39%) than it was to all voters (34%).
Keeping the military strong showed the greatest disparities. It was selected by 32% overall, but by only 17% at Bloomingdale's. On the high side again were Wal-Mart 7010and Sears, both at 41%.
Reducing poverty scored at 26% overall. Sears at 20% and Macy's at 32% were the low and high.
On education, Bloomingdale's and Macy's scored highest at 39%. Overall, it was picked by 32%. Sears was lowest at 26%.
John Zogby is President and CEO of Zogby International and the author of The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream, which was published by Random House in August 2008 and is now available online and in bookstores. For more information on The Way We'll Be, including purchasing information and video interviews, please visit http://www.zogby.com/Book/.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.cfm?ID=1382
(12/8/2008)
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