Dean Stretches Lead Over Kerry in New Hampshire Primary to 42% - 12%;
Clark in 3rd with 9% in Newest Zogby International Poll
Two-thirds of Dems and
Independents say it is somewhat or very
likely President Bush will be re-elected.
Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, who enjoyed a 40% - 17% lead in October polling of New Hampshire Democratic primary likely voters over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, has stretched that lead in December polling to 42% - 12%. Retired general Wesley Clark is third at 9%, followed by Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman with 7%.
Polling in Zogby’s “Road to Boston” series was conducted December 1 – 3, and involved 503 likely Democratic and Independent voters in New Hampshire’s January 27th Democratic primary election. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, and margins are higher in sub-groups.
North Carolina Senator John Edwards earned 4%, followed by Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt at 3% and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 2%. Former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton did not receive any votes in the poll.
New Hampshire Democratic Primary 2003, in %
|
Candidate
|
Dec | Oct | Sept | Aug | June | Feb |
|
Dean |
42 |
40 |
30 |
38 |
22 |
13 |
|
Kerry |
12 |
17 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
26 |
|
Clark |
9 |
6 |
- |
2 |
- |
1 |
|
Lieberman |
7 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
|
Edwards |
4 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
|
Gephardt |
3 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
|
Kucinich |
2 |
0.4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Sharpton |
- |
0.5 |
1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1 |
|
Mosley Braun |
- |
0.1 |
0.1 |
- |
0.6 |
2 |
|
Not sure |
19 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
29 |
While the Granite State primary is just less than 8 weeks away, one in five (19%) likely primary voters are still unsure of their favorite candidate.
Kerry enjoyed front-runner status in New Hampshire in Zogby’s February and June polling, but Dean gained the lead in August, gave a few points back in September, and has been growing an exponential lead since then.
Dean enjoys a comfortable lead in the state’s 1st Congressional District over Kerry, 40% - 13%, and an even larger lead in the 2nd District, 44% - 11%. Clark reached double-digits in the 2nd District at 10%, but all other presidential hopefuls remain in single digits in both districts.
Democrats favor Dean by a heavy margin, 44% - 15% over Kerry. Independents give 39% of their support to Dean, with Kerry, Lieberman, and Clark in a three-way tie for 2nd at 9%.
Overall opinion of Dean is high, with a 78% favorable and 12% unfavorable rating. Kerry’s favorable rating is 64%, with a 28% unfavorable. Likely voters in all age groups, all education levels, and all income levels heavily support Dean.
Two in three (66%) likely voters say it is somewhat or very likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they intend to vote. In earlier New Hampshire polling:
|
Bush |
Dec ‘03 |
Oct ‘03 |
Sept ‘03 |
Aug ‘03 |
Jun ‘03 |
Feb ‘03 |
|
Likely Re-elect |
66% |
60% |
60% |
64% |
76% |
63% |
The President’s re-election likelihood numbers have been consistently high all year in New Hampshire, with a low of three in five at any point. Still, 44% say they dislike him as a person, while 39% of the Democrats and Independents in the poll said they like him. From the same group, Bush’s job performance rating is 19% positive, 78% negative in December polling.
Just over two in five (44%) say that Democrats should nominate someone whose political ideology is closest to that of former president Clinton, while 30% say the party should choose someone who is more liberal.
New Hampshire primary voters think it is more important that Democrats nominate a candidate who opposed the war in Iraq (46%) than a candidate who supported it (36%).