Zogby International

Polling and Market Research Since 1984	AHEAD OF THE CURVE
July, 2006	Volume 2, Issue 4

Home Security
The National Debt
A Worst Case Scenario
The Wal-Mart Voter

National & Personal Economics

The U.S. Commerce Department reported in late June that the economy for the first three months of the year leapt forward, as the Gross Domestic Product increased by 5.6%, the fastest pace of growth in more than two years.

The latest Zogby survey of likely voter sentiment about how things are going in America crept forward but remains stuck below 40%, as 57% said they think the nation is headed in the wrong direction. The poll also shows that, while 48% think the economy is better than it was a year ago, 49% think it is getting worse.

One in five think it is getting much worse!

Yet, the Consumer Confidence Index recently showed another increase and now sites at 105.7, up from just 85 less than a year ago. Meanwhile, the price of a gallon of gasoline has settled at just under $3 per gallon as the heavy summer driving season gets underway, and a majority of Americans give President Bush negative marks for his leadership on the economy.

***Thinking of your household income, is it:***
More than enough	14%
Enough for bills, savings and extras	52%
Just enough to get by	25%
Struggling	8%
Not Sure	1%

The minds of consumers seem completely at odds with the facts at play in America’s economy. Zogby Interactive found in its survey, taken June 22–26, 2006, that the majority of respondents were secure and happy with their own current financial situation, though they remain concerned about their neighbor's checkbook.

Clearly, there is more at work here than meets the eye. The poll data appears to indicate that Americans are making judgments about the economy based at least in part on non–economic factors. Political point of view is a key factor. Those who oppose President Bush and the Republican leadership, while acknowledging that their own financial situations are fine, are reluctant to admit the overall economy is getting better. Exhibit One – just 9% of progressives said they think the economy has improved over the past 12 months, but ten times as many people who consider themselves “very conservative” say the same thing – that the economy is better now.

Among those who said the country is going in the right direction, 79% said they have plenty of income to pay the bills, save, have extras, and more.

How likely is it that your job will be secure in five years?

Very likely - 45%
Somewhat likely - 27%
Somewhat unlikely - 9%
Very unlikely - 6%

If confronted with job loss, what single step would you take first?

Take any available job for income - 31%
Not sure - 16%
Change careers without new training - 15%
Move - 12%
Go back to school for more training in your career - 6%
Go back to school to learn a new career - 6%

Source: Zogby Interactive

Volume 2, Issue 4

Page 2

***When Forming Your Opinion of the National Economy, What Factor is Most Important to You?***
	Total	Progressives	Moderates	Very Conservative
Your employment status	7%	7%	8%	5%
Employment status of friends/family	7%	5%	7%	6%
Amount of personal debt	4%	6%	5%	3%
The national debt	14%	26%	16%	6%
Your personal budget - income versus expenses	19%	13%	19%	20%
The yearly national deficit	7%	8%	8%	4%
Gas prices	6%	4%	7%	5%
The national inflation rate	10%	6%	8%	15%
The cost of things you have to buy personally	12%	13%	13%	12%

What? Me Worry?

Of course, a key factor in how people assess the economy is how secure they feel about their jobs. Zogby International has asked this same question a number of times over the years. Here are the latest findings:

**What do you think about your job?**
I don't worry about my job	47%
Fine for right now, but I am concerned about the future	31%
Somewhat unstable	9%
Very concerned - I could loose my job at any time	5%
Not sure	9%

Compared to Dec., 2004, are you better off?	28%
Compared to Dec., 2004, are you worse off?	20%
. . . Or are you the same?	52%

Last December, we asked American voters whether they were better off or worse off than a year ago, and we found the nation leaning to the optimistic, saying they were better off. Most said they were about the same:

The optimism we found in the current poll was predicted in our year–end survey six months ago:

**Generally speaking, do you think you will be better off, worse off or about the same next year at this time?**
Better	34%
Worse	14%
Same	50%
Not Sure	2%

Asked in that December survey why they expected things to be better, 10% expected a raise in salary and 8% were fairly certain of a better job. Of the people that expected things to be worse, 6% said they were worried about the quality of leadership in the country.

Volume 2, Issue 4

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National Debt Weighs Heavier on Liberals Than Conservatives

It used to be the conservatives who were always so worried about government spending and the ballooning national debt, but now that they’ve held the congressional reins of power for more than a decade and at the White House for nearly half that time period, those on the right appear to be getting used to the idea of America spending what it doesn’t have, the new Zogby poll shows.

And the role reversal is complete, as almost everyone at the left end of the political spectrum (97% of progressives and 98% of liberals) said they were concerned about the national debt, as reflected somewhat in an earlier chart, while those at the right end of the spectrum were less worried about it. Among the very conservative, just 51% said they were concerned about it.

A majority in almost every demographic group agreed that the debt was a drag on the national economy. While liberals said they would like to see a combination of increased taxes and spending cuts to reduce the deficit, conservatives were more inclined to cut spending alone and let the economy grow its way out of the deficit.

A Worst Case Scenario?

While the economy shows real strength right now, should things head south, Americans appear ready to abandon the “goodies” in life to make ends meet.

We wondered if Americans faced a financial worst–case scenario, what would they cut first? Here is what you said:

Soccer Moms, NASCAR Dads, and now….

Welcome to Wal-Mart

901 Broad St.
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Washington, DC 20006

Phone: 315-624-0200
Fax: 315-624-0210
Email: mail@zogby.com

Pollster John Zogby is known around the world for his uncanny ability to identify trends, especially in the world of politics. This year, he’s again on the cutting edge with the discovery of frequent Wal-Mart shoppers as a key demographic to watch in the upcoming 2006 congressional midterm elections.

Yes, what some have called the most important congressional mid–term elections in quite some time are colliding with the most important phenomenon of the retail world.

Zogby has found a direct correlation between how often Wal-Mart customers shop there and how reliably conservative they are. What makes this group so important this year is that, while the weekly Wal-Mart shopper voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2004, it is less entrenched than other conservative groups – and Zogby’s numbers indicate it is wavering.

“Wal-Mart is so much more than retail,” Zogby said. “It’s a religion out there.”

Zogby International telephone polling and Zogby Interactive polling have been asking respondents for years if and how often they shop at Wal-Mart. The answers to these and many other demographic questions are crunched by a team of Zogby analysts, and the end result is a very interesting profile of the typical frequent Wal-Mart shopper:

For the most part, weekly Wal-Mart shoppers are conservative in their ideology. The typical weekly Wal-Mart Shopper has a favorable opinion of George W. Bush, but sees the country as off on the wrong track. His rating of the job performance of the President has changed a lot – for the worse – over the past few months. While there has been a slight bump up in their evaluation of Bush’s work and leadership, the weekly Wal-Mart shopper is still unhappy. They have been a member of his party for over nine years, and, for the most part is a member of that party because he/she agrees with the moral and social issues associated with their party. But, don’t think they walk in lock–step and pull the party line like zombies…More than 25% of the time they are dissatisfied with the choices the party makes in their candidates for federal offices. In addition, 84% think that the national parties and their candidates are too detached from the average American to understand their needs.

Should members of Congress have some form of term limits? Weekly Wal-Mart shoppers say a resounding “yes!” and when asked whether they believe that the nation’s economy is better than a year ago, 66% answer in the affirmative.

So, is the frequent Wal-Mart shopper as American as Motherhood and Apple Pie? Sure thing…and you’ll find that pie in Aisle 17. And, depending on the outcome of the November midterm elections, thank you for shopping Wal-Mart.

Zogby International: Keeping Your Company and Your Clients Ahead of the Curve Since 1984.

For more infomation about polling and market research, contact Chad Bohnert at (315) 624-0200 ext. 237 or chad@zogby.com

Zogby's American Consumer Newsletter
Zogby’s American Consumer Publisher John Zogby President & CEO, Zogby International
Editor-in-Chief Fritz Wenzel
Senior Writer Karen Scott
Managing Editor Marc Penz
Copy Editor Joe Zogby