It may be hard to imagine that after more than 150 years of existence, when Republicans have held the White House about twice as often as have Democrats, that the GOP would disappear. Republicans (and Democrats) have been shut out of power in Washington in the past. That isn't the reason why the long-term viability of the GOP could be in trouble.

As has been well-documented, Republicans are swimming against the tide of demography. In a nation that is becoming more and more diverse, Republicans are the party made up of primarily white voters in the South and (to a lesser degree) the Mountain West. I live in Utica, NY, smack in the middle of an Upstate New York region that was not long ago dominated by Republicans in Congress. Now, there are only two Upstate Republican House members, and one of them, Rep. John McHugh, is leaving to become Secretary of the Army.

The GOP's demographic problems go well-beyond geography. Republicans are losing a fast growing employment sector, dubbed the Creative Class by economist and social scientist Dr. Richard Florida. He estimates the Creative Class in the U.S. numbers 30 million people and 20% of the workforce. Their work requires problem solving and is knowledge-based, which doesn't lend them to pat formulas or single ideologies. To put it in the negative, members of the Creative Class are not the industrial working class, which continues to shrink and has aided the Republican Party in the recent past through their identification with conservative social issues.

Exit polls from the 2008 election showed Barack Obama winning 48% of voters from families earning $100,000 or more, which is a good number for a Democrat. He won 52% from those earning more than $200,000 (even though Obama said only those above $250,000 might have their taxes increased.)

John McCain won 51% of white voters with family earnings below $50,000. He also won 56% of whites making more than $50,000. Given the growth of non-white voters, Republicans must do better than that among whites to offset their weakness with minorities. The rub comes when you look at younger voters of all ages, who went strongly for Obama. They will comprise the growing Creative Class of workers, and with that growth, the GOP advantage among white middle class voters will disappear.

Of course, a Republican rebound in the 2010 election remains a possibility.. Should Republicans pick up Congressional seats next year, it certainly doesn't appear that any initiatives taken by the GOP will be the reason why. Instead, the party is counting on Obama's policies to fail. That is not a long-term cure for what ails Republicans.

Instead, Republicans are in some ways looking like the Federalists in the 1810s. They too were a regional party. Federalists were made up of a particular class of voters dominated by businessmen and merchants in Northeastern cities. Like today's Republicans, Federalists were hurt by an expanding electorate due to removal of property ownership requirements. Like current Republicans, some New England Federalists considered secession during the War of 1812. Voters eventually lost faith in the Federalists, partly due to the party's perceived pessimism. The nation was changing, but the Federalists did not.

Republican base voters put the party in a bind by forcing candidates to pledge allegiance to every conservative economic and social policy. To comeback as a national party, Republicans must re-establish themselves beyond their regional base, including the Northeast, where the religious right is not as strong as in the South, Mountain West and even the Midwest. As the impact of the Bush Administration fades and a more activist government emerges under Obama, a traditional conservative who is a fiscal watchdog and a social libertarian who projects optimism can certainly win in the Northeast.

The GOP must rebuild with such candidates, or else the prospect of becoming the Federalists re dux may not be so far-fetched.

John Zogby is president and CEO of Zogby International and the author of The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream.