November 21, 2009
Why I'm Not Asking the Question Everyone Wants to See
(An op-ed as it appears in the September, 2007 edition of Campaigns and Elections Magazine)
By John Zogby
President and CEO
Zogby International
"When are you at Zogby International going to ask the American people when President George W. Bush should be impeached?"
After the one about who will win the next presidential election, this is the question that is asked of me more than any other these days. For some, it's the most important question in the world, even though Congress, now controlled by the Democratic Party, has taken no formal steps in that direc- tion. It seemed to be a motivating force for some at the left end of the political spectrum to oust Republicans from control of Congress. But shortly after winning the post, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., took impeach- ment "off the table."
Yet two Democratic congressmen have voiced support for impeach- ment. Michigan's John Conyers has said he would support a national effort to build support for impeaching Bush, but has taken no official action. Ohio's Dennis Kucinich has called for the impeachment of Vice President Dick Cheney, but the maneuver was a non-starter on Capitol Hill.
However, some Americans continue to pursue the topic of impeachment, mostly focused on the president-and they wonder aloud in calls to pollsters about what their fellow citizens are thinking. This phenomenon speaks about the strong vein of discontent of our citizenry. And it reveals a lot more about the Armageddon Election of 2004 that I talked about at length for a year leading up to that vote.
Then, it was clear that the nation was so divided-by the war, the after- math of the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks and lingering questions about the legitimacy of the 2000 presidential election-that no matter which party won the White House, the opposing side would never be happy.
We're now seeing indications that the pendulum is headed back to cen- ter from the extreme of the 2004 elec- tion cycle. We first noticed the pen- dulum change course in the spring of 2006 in our survey work, which showed those in the middle of the political spectrum-moderates and independents-would decide wheth- er Republicans would be able to hold control of Congress. In mid-May this year, we saw a continued strengthen- ing of this centrist position. I call it a "rebirth of the political center."
This rebirth weakens the power of persuasive arguments-about, say, impeachment-launched by those at either end of the political spectrum.
Still, some continue to call (and call and call) for a poll on impeachment.
At a time when there are no real- istic actions on impeachment likely to spring from the U.S. House of Representatives, the concept is merely the issue out of context with the cur- rent political circumstance. It would be like asking whether the Department of Education should be abolished. The questions are pointless because neither is going to happen-certainly not any- time soon.
So what is the point?
In the end, I may well ask the ques- tion out of curiosity, because it is an interesting one, and I might ask the question should a paying customer come to me with that request.
But I don't ever want to be put into the position where we are responding to pressure to conduct a poll on any question. This situation reminds me of atheists who, from time to time, launch campaigns to be included in our polling as a demographic choice in our question about the respondents' religion. I have done it, in part because I just wanted to see what the response would be. Predictably, it was so tiny as to be statistically insignificant, and so served no useful purpose.
Yes, the polling question about impeachment may eventually get into the field, but not because the proverbial Zogby barricades are being stormed by blogs and calls. Instead, as is almost always the case, news will drive the topic. Because one thing I have learned from almost 23 years in the public opin- ion research business: The more rele- vant the question is to our lives, the more powerful the answer. (7/17/2007)