Vintage Analysis Calculator
Track deal performance by funding cohort to identify trends in underwriting quality over time.
What Is Vintage Analysis?
Vintage analysis groups deals by the month they were funded and tracks each group's performance independently. This reveals whether your underwriting quality is improving, stable, or deteriorating over time. Aggregate portfolio metrics can mask vintage-specific problems -- a portfolio with 90% overall collection rate may have January deals collecting at 95% and July deals at only 82%. Without vintage analysis, you would not know that recent deals are performing worse. In MCA, vintage analysis is the standard analytical framework used by institutional investors, syndicators, and sophisticated ISOs to evaluate portfolio health. It answers the critical question: is the book getting better or worse?
How to Use This Calculator
Enter cohort data for 3 funding months
Select representative months and enter the number of deals and collection percentage for each. Use completed or near-completed cohorts for the most meaningful comparison.
Compare across vintages
The calculator identifies the best and worst performing vintage and determines whether the trend is improving, stable, or deteriorating.
Investigate deteriorating vintages
If recent vintages are performing worse, drill down: did you change funder relationships? Start accepting lower-quality merchants? Increase stacking? The vintage trend points to the timeframe; you need to identify the cause.
Key Concepts
Vintage
A cohort of deals funded in the same month. Each vintage is tracked independently to isolate time-period-specific performance from the overall portfolio.
Vintage Curve
A chart showing collection rates for each vintage over time. Healthy vintages show rising collection rates that plateau near 90-95%. Unhealthy vintages show flat or declining collection rates.
Vintage Deterioration
When more recent vintages perform worse than older vintages. This is the most important early warning signal in portfolio management -- it means something changed in deal quality.
Expert Insights
Monthly Vintage Tracking Is Non-Negotiable: If you fund from your own capital or participate in syndication, monthly vintage tracking is the most important analytical practice you can implement. It takes 30 minutes per month to update and can save you from a portfolio blow-up that costs hundreds of thousands. The pattern: vintage deterioration goes unnoticed for 3-4 months, then defaults spike, then it is too late to prevent. Monthly tracking gives you the 3-4 month warning window to tighten underwriting.
Compare Vintages to Market Conditions: Vintage performance is affected by both your underwriting quality AND market conditions. If all vintages funded during a particular quarter underperform, it may reflect market-wide stress rather than your specific underwriting. Compare your vintage performance to industry benchmarks and other portfolios (if accessible) to distinguish between your-specific and market-wide effects.
Frequently Asked Questions
Results are estimates for educational purposes only. Actual amounts may vary based on your specific financial situation, market conditions, and other factors. This calculator does not constitute financial advice.
Run These Numbers Too
Portfolio Performance Dashboard
Track key portfolio metrics: collection rate, default rate, ROI, and deal composition.
Collection Efficiency Calculator
Measure how effectively your portfolio is collecting against expected repayment schedules.
Default Rate Impact Calculator
Model how merchant default rates affect portfolio yield, losses, and net returns.
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