Monday morning Matt Drudge used a curious headline -“Obama Approve/Disapprove Reach Parity”  – to link to the RealClearPolitics Average, which now shows the President with a 48% approval rating and a 47% disapproval rating.  To us, this revelation was far from shocking; it is the extension of a trend we have seen emerging as far back as this past August.

Our interactive polling began to show the President’s predicament not long after the healthcare town hall events finished unsettling the usually calm Washington August.  Since that time, his standing among political independents has fluctuated from a low of 36% to a high of 47%.  And with every dip in the President’s support among independents, his overall approval has followed.

The RealClearPolitics average itself first dropped below 50% at the end of November of last year and has shown the parity of the President’s approval fairly consistently over the past several months.  But when you look at the RealClearPolitics chart, you may notice something missing.  Though our interactive tracking polls for the past 6 months align with the trend shown by the polling average, our interactive results are not included in the data set.

RealClearPolitics is not alone in failing to report our interactive methodology, though the number of outlets dismissing this methodology grows fewer every day.  News outlets who hold fast to a belief in the telephone only world of polling miss the chance to seize on a new and better source of public opinion — the increasing number of Americans who are moving into the online world in droves and who go there to voice their opinions.

For those who wonder about the track record of our interactive they need look no further than our performance in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections.

So while many pollsters continue to argue that the landline telephone is the only true polling methodology available, doubling down on a technology that grows more obsolete by the day gives new meaning to the word foolhardy.  Rather than place the same foolish bets, we invested in developing new technologies and new methodologies like our Zogby Interactive polling, which allows us to keep our finger on the pulse of the new interconnected and interactive America.

There will be those who bemoan internet based polling and will rant about methodology issues until they have exhausted all available oxygen in the room, but for all the shouting in the world one fact remains –internet-based polling will be a vital part of the future.  And while no one methodology is perfect, having spent the past decade refining our interactive panel of nearly 500,000 respondents, we can say that the view from the head of this trend is a good one and we look forward to the day when the rest of the industry catches up.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized Obama, polls

Massachusetts:  When a Hunch Is Not a Poll

by John Zogby

You all know the story of the seven blind men and the elephant. It all depends what you feel and how you sense it. I have seen some blogs following my discussion on Sean Hannity’s Radio Show yesterday (January 18, linked above) where he asked what I “think” is going to happen in Massachusetts. I told  him I didn’t know. I don’t think that the polls that are out have gotten to measure the full impact of President’s visit. But I also think that the Democrats have a better get-out-the-vote operation. There are lots of variables but at the moment I thought Martha Coakley “might win” by less than a point.

That, my friends, is a hunch. I have not polled Massachusetts on this race and I have stated that Coakley has run an arrogant, aloof campaign – while Scott Brown has defied expectations.

In the full interests of truth: I have no idea what is going to happen. Actually no one does. Some have data that suggests – that often enough has been me. Others have no data and still suggest. This time that is me.

I am so proud of my record over the years. I am so gratified that so many people care what I think. But this particular time it is based on a hunch. We will see.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor elections politics

Today’s Zogby blog post comes courtesy of Cheryl Korn, a Writer/Analyst with Zogby International, and an avid hockey fan since she was old enough to follow and understand the game. Thanks Cheryl!

Patrick Kane, a forward with the Chicago Blackhawks of the National Hockey League (NHL), made history by scoring the first NHL goal in Finland. This is most likely a moment Kane will carry with him for the rest of his life. But what will he remember about pleading guilty to a noncriminal charge of disorderly conduct after being accused of assaulting a cab driver over a fare dispute this past summer?

Kane could have faced up to 15 days in jail and a $250 fine, but the judge in Kane’s case issued him a conditional discharge. This meant he would avoid facing jail time as long as he does not run into problems with the law for a year. Kane was also ordered to make a statement of apology to the cab driver.

Luckily for Kane, everything seems to be neatly swept under the rug. The NHL has not chosen to punish him for his actions off the ice this past summer. However, how well does this lack of punishment sit with hockey fans and the general public?

According to a recent Zogby Interactive survey, 65% of adults nationwide agree that regardless of Kane’s guilty plea, he should face some sort of disciplinary action from the NHL. Respondents age 65 and older (70%) and parents of children under the age of 17 (69%) are among the most likely to agree. Eighteen percent of those surveyed do not agree and believe Kane should not face any disciplinary action from the NHL.

Electronic Arts Sports’ (EA Sports) NHL 10 was released on September 15. This release featured Kane’s image, and the software company has not said anything about replacing Kane’s image on the cover because of the off-ice incident this past summer. Clearly, this lack of action does not sit well with some. Our survey shows that 42% believe EA Sports should change the cover of the game and remove Kane’s image. Respondents ages 50-64 (48%) and 65 and older (47%) and parents of children under the age of 17 (44%) are among the most likely to agree that the cover should be changed. Three in ten (31%) do not agree that Kane’s image should be removed, with First Globals™ (18-29 year olds) (44%) among the most likely to say that Kane’s image should remain on the cover.

What is your opinion about this? How does this situation compare to the incident a few years ago where former Vancouver Canuck Todd Bertuzzi issued former Colorado Av Steve Moore a check into the boards? The play would end Moore’s hockey playing career. As you may recall, the referee during the game did not call a penalty as the check was deemed legal. However, Bertuzzi was later suspended by the NHL due to the severity of Moore’s injuries. Clearly, Kane could have seriously injured the cab driver during the incident, so why is the NHL continuing to look the other way? Did the NHL “miss the call” by not issuing Kane a suspension or some type of disciplinary action for his conduct off the ice this past summer?

ZogbyFeaturedContributor culture, lifestyles crime, entertainment, first globals, history, international, lifestyle, sports, summer, war, zogby

We are thrilled to welcome Maya Frost as a guest blogger on The Way We’ll Be. Maya is an internationally recognized expert on nontraditional and innovative paths through higher education. Maya is the author of The New Global Student, a primer for students and parents interested in global and unorthodox higher education while avoiding the anxiety and expense of traditional college. You can read more about Maya at her website and blog. Thanks Maya!

This has been a tipping-point summer for higher education. Shrinking endowments and slashes in state funding have crippled universities of all sizes and descriptions, resulting in unprecedented cuts in administration, programs and services.  Meanwhile, family resources have been decimated by job losses, reduced housing values, and an inability to get credit.

Middle-class families are asking hard questions about the value of a name-brand university degree and rejecting the option of taking on a great deal of debt to pay for one.  As a result, community college enrollment has surged across the United States, and many students are now planning to earn their degree at a state school instead of a private university.

Accepting students with the means to pay full room, board and tuition is a time-honored approach to filling the coffers at private universities, and in the current economic climate, the admissions gap is likely to widen at elite colleges. Administrators have reinvigorated their efforts to attract those who are not making their enrollment decisions based on financial aid.  A higher percentage of students from wealthier families will earn their diplomas at top schools alongside the lucky few who are offered full scholarships based on need (and the colleges’ quest for more diversity). Meanwhile, the middle-class kids will walk en masse at graduation ceremonies at not-terribly-impressive-but-reasonably-good universities across the country.

Savvy employers understand this shift.  They have their own economic challenges and need to find employees who are truly valuable rather than simply impressive.  Business leaders and non-profit directors are becoming less impressed by an Ivy League diploma or a straight-after-graduation master’s degree.  Instead, they are looking for real competence, relevant experience and honest enthusiasm in young people who know how to get things done with limited resources.

Prestige is losing its power. We’re entering an era with a renewed emphasis on the value of practical skills, a can-do attitude, and no excuses.  Leaders will look for those who have had nothing handed to them and will handpick employees—and future leaders—who know how to scramble.

I’m betting on those who are hungry—for learning, for experiences, and for personal development and success.  The scramblers have been responsible for the success of our nation throughout history, and their counterparts in India, China and elsewhere are driving the explosion in innovation and collaboration abroad.  Those who have had no choice but to use their creativity and talent rather than their connections or family funds to get ahead will be perfectly positioned to seize the most thrilling and fulfilling opportunities in the 21^st-century global economy.

Watch the scramblers—and see where they lead us.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized economy, education, future, history, international, summer

I am sitting in my living room. Immediately to my right is my dining room. In my dining room are, variously, a box holding my wedding gown…from 1988, a box of stuffed animals and a 3 foot tall Tigger, a remote control car still in the box (these even though my youngest son is a senior in high school), the cat carrier, two rolling footstools and two Cannondale road bikes. Of course I also have a dining room table, china cabinet, and 6 chairs. There are also 3 stacks of boxes, a bookcase and a settee that belonged to my grandmother.  Although I’ve rarely been accused of being neat, I’m not usually living in such chaos. It’s just that I’ve recently moved, downsized to be precise, and I’m trying to fit more than 20 years of family stuff into a house no bigger than the one I moved to just after wearing that wedding dress all those years ago. 

I am among those who are reducing their lifestyle. Why? Well, it’s a cost savings obviously; a smaller place will cost me less money monthly to light and heat. My monthly payment is lower and the maintenance is significantly less on a smaller home, so it’s less work. I’m headed for an empty nest as my youngest son graduates from high school so we no longer need as much room as we used to come the fall, so there’s that as well.

It feels like there’s more to it though. After a lifetime of always feeling as though I needed to have just a little more than enough-just in case, everything from extra towels and sheets to a back up bottle of laundry detergent and a pound of butter in the freezer, I’m now running leaner. We have very little storage space now, no extra closets, no garage and so we’re operating on just having what’s necessary, I’m letting go.

Is it part of the new economy? Yes, that’s some of it, and I’m not alone. On a recent Zogby Interactive survey 29% of Americans report they are driving less as a result of the recession, 5% have downsized their home, 19% are bringing their lunch, 38% have reduced or eliminated going out to dinner, 19% are renting movies, and 34% have changed their travel plans.

So, yes, for myself and plenty others, that’s part of it, but there’s something else I’ve found, it’s freeing to have less. I have less to be responsible for. I donated, sold or gave away plenty, and threw out a fair amount of just plain junk that we’ve carried from house to house over the years. And the result is that I feel better. There’s less to be responsible for, fewer things to maintain, fewer moving parts, and fewer broken ones.

Will I continue to live a smaller life? Have less of a footprint here on earth? Yes, I think I will. Will you? Are you now? Did you always live a sparse lifestyle and you’re glad to see so many of us are catching up? Anyone want to buy a “vintage” wedding gown?

Karen Scott is Managing Editor and co-Director of Project Management at Zogby International. She has two sons, one is a sophomore at Pennsylvania State University (We Are-Penn State!) and one, as mentioned above is a senior in high school. Her life has been full of surprises, among them are the fact that her wedding dress (pictured here) lasted longer than the marriage did, and while she knew she was a (young)  Woodstocker, upon further examination, it seems as though she might have become a Secular Spiritualist while no one was looking.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized animals, economy, international, lifestyle, marriage, media, recession, travel, work, zogby

Electronic cigarettes have landed on our shores from factories in China and are being considered a blessing by those who see them as a way to kick their smoking habit in favor of a device that manufacturers say doesn’t create harmful smoke while still giving the sensation of smoking with a nicotine kick. The Food and Drug Administration isn’t as keen on the prospect, and it has banned several shipments of ecigarettes from entering the country until they can figure out whether or not they are safe.

Personally, I find it hard to come to terms with the FDA putting up a fight about ecigarettes until they can prove to be safe, while the FDA is now in charge of regulating real cigarettes, which everyone knows are not safe at all. My guess is this is more about regulation and tax money than safety, as ecigarettes currently fly under the radar of massive state and federal tobacco taxes.

In our poll of 4, 611 Americans, we found that about half have heard about ecigarettes, but far fewer (16%) say they would ever try them. In contrast, a plurality (47%) say they think electronic smokes should be made available to people trying to kick the habit, much like patches and gum, and a majority says they should be regulated by the FDA (59%).�
Deep inside the statistics however is some hefty ammunition for those who may be interested in trying to ban the devices all together, as First Globals™ age 18-29 (25%) are the most likely age group to say they would try an electronic cigarette if given the chance, compared to just 15% of those age 30-64 and 8% of those 65 and older who say the same. First Globals™ (57%) are also the most likely group to say ecigarettes should be an option for people in their efforts to quit, and they are also the most likely age group to say ecigarettes should be allowed in places where smoking is now prohibited (46%)

Do you think ecigarettes should be regulated by the FDA? Should they be made available to people trying to quit, and should they be allowed in places where smoking is now prohibited? These are just a few questions starting to pop up now that America is introduced to a new way to enjoy and old vice.

- By Dan DeVries, a Writer/Analyst at Zogby International.  Dan has been with the company for three years.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized first globals, international, zogby

We are thrilled to welcome Maya Frost as a guest blogger on The Way We’ll Be. Maya is an internationally recognized expert on nontraditional and innovative paths through higher education. Maya is the author of The New Global Student, a primer for students and parents interested in global and unorthodox higher education while avoiding the anxiety and expense of traditional college. You can read more about Maya at her website and blog. Thanks Maya!

In his book, The Way We’ll Be, John Zogby describes the current generation of twenty-somethings (and a bit younger) as those who are more likely than any other age group to know someone who lives abroad, to consider going abroad, and to have knowledge of and interest in other parts of the world. He describes these young people as our First Global Citizens.

In my book, The New Global Student, I describe the young people who are broadening their perspective by actually spending meaningful and substantial periods of time abroad. These “New Globals” are a subset of the First Global Citizens in that they are the travelers who are sharing their experiences and first-hand knowledge with those who are seeking information about the world beyond our nation’s borders.

What distinguishes these young travelers from their backpacking-through-Europe-in-the-seventies parents is that are using the internet to design their individual dreams. And while their peers may be signing up for group tours, “submarine” programs (immersed in a bubble along with other Americans abroad) or expensive university study abroad options, the New Globals are choosing to:
1) create the terms of their stay (destination, cost, length of time, activities, type of housing, etc.)
2) connect directly with locals who can help them learn more about the people and places that intrigue them
3) collaborate with others to share ideas about ventures that allow them to spend more time in their chosen destination in ways that support and encourage the community.

In general, the New Globals are following three bold rules when it comes to traveling: go solo, go long, and go deep. This isn’t the Cancun-for-spring-break crowd or the shopping-and-cappuccino-in-Rome-with-my-girlfriends crowd—it’s the hey-I’m-thinking-of-heading-to-Bogotá-next solo traveler who speaks Spanish (thanks to, say, a few months as a journalism intern in Argentina after a summer volunteering in Guatemala), has an abiding interest in Latin American culture and has friends (new and old) waiting for him when he arrives. New Globals are more likely to pick off-the-beaten-path places that require less money but a greater sense of adventure. They use Facebook and CouchSurfing to meet others and find endless opportunities for work and cultural engagement wherever they go.

While the First Global Citizens will be making a tremendous impact on our culture in the next few years, keep your eye on the ones they’re watching: the New Globals. Their stories will inspire others to stretch their wings and discover more about the world and their possibilities for making it a better place.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized culture, education, international, internet, John Zogby, shopping, summer, The Way We'll Be, travel, volunteering, work, zogby

With all the recent hoopla surrounding the releases of The Beatles Rock Band video game and the Fab Four’s re-mastered back catalogue, you would think that every single breathing soul alive worships at the altar of John, Paul, George and Ringo.

However, according to a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last week, about one in five people actually say they do not like The Beatles. OK, so maybe that’s not an earth-shattering number, but still it’s substantial enough to warrant a closer look. Just who are these blasphemous people that don’t dig peace, love, and reenacted acid trips? I had to find out.

Well, I suppose we should start with the obvious. Republicans and Conservatives (30% each) are the two most likely groups to say they do not like our beloved Beatles, whereas Liberals (9%) and Democrats (14%) are among the least likely to say so. Maybe if we asked about Ted Nugent or the Charlie Daniels Band things would have shaken out differently.

It should come as no surprise that the Woodstock generation (18%) is the least likely age cohort to say they don’t like The Beatles, but I found it somewhat surprising that the Privates (25%) and the Nikes (25%) were dead even in their disdain, and that First Globals™ were not far behind (23%). Perhaps, as the decades roll on the band’s influence on the younger generations has waned a bit, or maybe the cynicism of said generations has run so amuck that they can’t even deem it cool to call themselves fans of probably the greatest band that ever existed.

Another semi-obvious tidbit, at least to me, is that college graduates (18%) are less likely than those without college degrees (25%) to say they like The Beatles. Because I mean really, if you weren’t actually alive during the comeuppance of The Beatles, chances are you discovered them in some black light illuminated dorm room whilst having your mind blown by “Across the Universe.”

In keeping with The Beatles theme of world-wide harmony, respondents who consider themselves residents of the planet earth (11%) are much less likely to say they don’t like The Beatles than are those who identify their residence as their city or town (24%) or America (25%), but the lads’ message doesn’t appear to translate evenly among the races, as we find that African-Americans (28%) and Hispanics (24%) are more likely than whites (20%) and Asians (16%) to not dig the vibes the band is laying down.

And finally while those who practice Transcendental Meditation were admittedly underrepresented, we find that Protestants (24%) and Catholics (22%) are more likely to dislike The Beatles than are Jewish respondents (12%) and followers of other religions (15%), as are Born Again Christians (28%) vs. Non-Born Again Christians (20%). Must have been all that satanic backwards message stuff.

- Post contributed by Phil Vanno, a Writer/Editor at Zogby International who once listened to “Strawberry Fields Forever” 50 times in a row and considered walking down the aisle to “All You Need is Love.” Phil’s opinion in no way represents that of Zogby International.

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized Beatles, first globals, Generations, international, peace, race, religion, video, war, zogby

If NBC network executives had the results from our December 2006 comedy poll commissioned by AOL, they may have thought twice about replacing Jay Leno with Conan O’Brien. The table below lists the findings for the question – which of the following late night/talk show hosts do you consider to be the most amusing?

Jay Leno 33%
David Letterman 20%
Jon Stewart 8%
Conan O’Brien 7%

With respect to Conan, he was considerably ahead of Letterman among First Globals™ (18-29 year olds), although still behind Jay Leno. However, among 30-49 year olds, Conan was behind Leno, Letterman, and Jon Stewart.

Nielsen ratings from June 10, 2009 showed Letterman’s viewership with a 3.4 metered-market household rating to NBC’s 2.9. “Late Show” was also up 13% from June 3rd and 17% from last June when Letterman was competing against Leno.

So, who do you prefer, Conan or Letterman? Do you like Jimmy Fallon as a replacement for Conan? Will you be watching Jay Leno’s new show?

ZogbyFeaturedContributor Uncategorized entertainment, first globals, television, war, work

According to a Zogby International poll conducted in August 2005, 87% of Americans agreed that the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 was the most historical event of their lifetime and that our culture, how we all live together in America, and how we as Americans view the world will never be the same. And nearly four years after the tragic day, over three fourths (76%) of those surveyed claimed the events still affected them emotionally, and nearly 70% personally thought about the attacks at least once a week. Among First Globals™ (18-29 year olds), 60% said their memories of the attacks were as emotionally vivid and dramatic in 2005 as they were in 2001. Over one fourth of those surveyed (26%) knew someone who had a family member killed or injured during the attacks of September 11th.

Concerning memorials, 21% of respondents stated that a permanent memorial has been created in their community. However, after 8 years, the reconstruction of the World Trade Center site in New York City is incomplete. Did you think it would be completed sooner? Do you think the length of time will lessen the impact when the memorial is complete, or will it add to the significance of that day?

ZogbyFeaturedContributor culture, politics culture, first globals, history, international, politics, zogby