About those independent voters…
We at Zogby have noticed that it is not uncommon for political analysts to treat moderate and independent voters as equivalent. However, in our recent Huffington Post article, we show that these two groups, while overlapping, are not the same. And in the case where main parties are strategizing to attract more voters, this distinction can be important.
Moderates are an ideological group that sits in the middle of ideological continuum between conservatives and liberals. On the other hand, independents are a group of people that doesn’t belong to the two main parties. Many of them are ideologically moderate, but important numbers of them aren’t, and the overall ideology of independents is tilted towards the right.
This fact is relevant for the discussion of whether Republican Party should become more or less conservative. On one hand, its members clearly want it to be more conservative, and this could attract some independent conservatives. On the other hand, if it moves too far, it will alienate independent moderates, a crucial swing-vote.
So the answer is, in a sense, that it should be both. This might sound impossible, but look at the Democrats! They have managed to capture both moderates and liberals. Such a large coalition is not always the easiest thing to manage but it is the only way for either party to be in power.








This is a great article. it was clear in the last election that the Democrats captured the independents. The term conservative is broader than liberal. Most of the Republicans are social conservatives, but not fiscal. As far as i can tell the last Republican president that had something close to a balanced budget was Dwight Eisenhower.
It is simply not possible to cut taxes and increase the defense spending or start a war without putting the US deficit into the red. The GOP doesn’t seem to care about the national debt or the deficit.
See, this is my problem. I remember Dwight Eisenhower. I am unhappy that the social conservatives have taken over my party. I know that there are “colorful” liberals in the Democratic party, but they pale in comparison with the foil hat people the conservative media has goaded into action. I realize we will need to have the flexibility to accept different opinions, but I am NOT ready to stay in a party run by extremists.
@E Elder And the dems are doing so much better… Neither party can stop themselves from spending us into dire financial straits.
I changed my voter registration in FL from Republican to Independent the day after Mccain stole the primary from Romney, after he pandered to the Cuban’s in Miami the day prior. Myself living in Florida, know the Cuban mafia tells their people whom to vote for, which threw the predicited Romney win to McCain in Fl, and probably influenced the remainder of the US elections. When these RINO’s ie; Arlene Spector (gone), Mccain, Lindsey Graham, etc. either retire to raise alpaca’s at the ranch, or follow Spector’s lead; than I will return to the Republican party I formerly belonged. Until than, I and my family are registered independents, voting Republican unless it’s a RINO as we seem to have now. I didn’t leave the Republican Party, they left me.
@Art
Not that I was a big McCain fan, but you must have come into the party after the hijacking, because the party has drifted far afield from its former base. The Republican Party that you are talking about having left you, may not have had you, using the older criteria. As a moderate Republican, it is a relief when you all jump ship and move to the Independents.
@Kevin
True both sides spend like rabbits. However I think this is a discussion regarding ideology.
@Jaime I was replying to a comment that was directed at the GOP. “The GOP doesn’t seem to care about the national debt or the deficit.”
I agree, also, that it’s about ideology. Unfortunately for all of us, when it comes to spending, the GOP and the dems are two halves of the same ugly free-spending creature.
@E Elder
We have a great opportunity to break the stranglehold the Democratic and
Republican parties have held for decades. Why not register Independent and join the Indies collation to take back America? Indies target the biggest fears politicians have. Fear of not being re-elected, term limits and tax revolts. Indies have more choices to select the most qualified person to represent us. We need new faces with innovative ideas to create new J-O-B-S.
Heads they win, tails we lose. How lobbyists steal taxpayer dollars.
“Democracy is dead … lobbyists rule America”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/16-credos-for-our-new-lobbyist-nation-2009-09-01?pagenumber=
@greycloud2
The Independents in my state are the extreme liberals. You want me to become a liberal?
Remembering in my state, most Republicans cannot run as Republicans, but as conservative Democrats, leaving the social conservatives in the Republican party. Since that skews the Democrats toward the conservative end of the continuum, the liberals have no where to go but into the Independent party.
The problem I have is that the Republican’s have become the NO party. Ultraconservative, out in right field some place and out of touch with America. It has become the “Big Brother” party. Abortion should be between a woman, her family, and god if she believes in god. Does it matter if my friend is gay and wants to marry their gay partner? No! I’ve been married to a wonderful woman for near 37 years. We have known a number of gays over the years, yet none of them had a negative impact on my marriage—why should they? The antigay movement tells me how insecure these people are. Every one of them I have met is Republican. Perhaps if the Republican’s stop listening to Rush, they would wake up and see how out of touch they really are.
The Democrats are a little better, at least they seem to be trying. They are trying to deal with two wars that should never have been started in the first place. Why didn’t we attack the real supporters of 9/11, the Saudis? Oil? They are trying to build a health care system that works. Why do we Americans hate each other so much that we refuse to take care of the homeless, many of whom are veterans; the working poor, and the elderly for whom Medicaid isn’t enough?
I don’t like spending money any more then the next person. But under the current system there is no other option. Why don’t we concentrate on the real problems? Energy and unemployment are at the top of the list. We can put lots of people to work building mass transportation along both coasts. My goal would be to have access to major transportation—light or heavy rail, bus, or other within 10 minutes or less of every household on either coast. Small buses or vans would pick people up on their street. We have plenty of existing energy sources. Low head hydro is one, wind is another, and wood chip is a third. Instead of spending billions trying to find new sources—let’s start with what we have. Let’s encourage and support local farms. Eat local organic—it saves energy and is better food. All of these solutions are multifaceted. They help unemployment, they save energy, and they make us independent of the oil producers. Forget about the gays, they want to live normal lives like everyone else. Forget about abortion—if we take care of our people, teach girls about sex and provide them with contraceptives in school the problem will take care of its self. Let’s start working on the real problems. Let’s bring our troops home—it’s too late for my daughter who will deal with PTSD for the rest of her life. Let’s bring our dollars home—demand products made in the US. Let’s get the government out of our daily lives. Remember that 9/11 could have been prevented if the agencies responsible simple talked to each other. In short, fix the current system.
Well, Bill, the reason the Republican party is the party of NO is to counter the Democrat party of give-me, give-me, give-me, spent, spend, spend! We conservatives are not the Republican party. In this two party system, the Republican party is, however, the party closest to the values we support.
And we conservatives out here in right field are in touch with the Constitution as our founding fathers meant it, and God given moral values, and self-reliance. Not the cesspool you refer to as America. We may be ‘out of touch’ with it. Doesn’t mean we do not see it or hear it. It means we choose not to jump in.
Further, words mean things. And the definition of marriage is the union of a man and a woman. Call it what you want other than marriage, in order to get your legal rights and welfare but, a man and man couple is not a marriage.
I do agree with you; the Saudis are not our friends. We would not be lapping at their door for oil if the Democrats would get off their high horse, and let us exploit our abundant resources here in the United States.
Health care, as welfare and education , is not the business of the federal government. The United States is not one big state. It is fifty separate states. States with separate states rights. Fifty states to deal with their own health care, welfare and education.
@Oldman Bill
To some extent, I agree with some of the points you have raised, which is why I can no longer hold a conversation with the more conservative Republicans I know. The conservatives seem to want to nebbish everything to death. I wish we could freeze out anyone would brings these fruitless arguments into the public forum and get on with the important ones.
Hey MK,
I seem to remember not so long ago, when the Republicans were in power, we were the party of give-me, give-me, spend send spend. And by the way, our Founding Fathers were Deists, and originally, the common man did not have the right to vote, that was reserved for men who were landholders. You might describe the authors and founders of our nation as being educated elitists, a term often used to describe liberal Democrats……
@Jaime “I wish we could freeze out anyone would brings these fruitless arguments into the public forum and get on with the important ones.” You’ve just verbalized what many fear from the current administration — if you disagree with us, we’ll silence you.
Surely you don’t want to silence those with whom you disagree. If we’re willing to repeatedly enter into fruitless negotiations with Iran and North Korea, surely we can listen to all ideas from our countrymen.
Jaime,
What is nebbish? And, what do you consider an important argument?
The Republicans have lost their way when it comes to spending. But, they don’t even come close to the Democrats. Look what’s going on right now!
And, by the way, not all our founding fathers were Deist, not even most.
Jefferson and Franklin are the two most notable. According to Jefferson, Deism simply meant belief in only one God, which indeed seems to be an early, commonly accepted definition of Deism.
So, what’s your point?
Yes. Originally the vote was limited to property owners. A better idea than giving the vote to every uneducated air-head, felon, druggie, or non-citizen! As with freedom, the vote comes with responsibilities.
And, no I would not describe our founding fathers as being educated elitists. Yes, they were educated and they were hard working, self-reliant, highly moral men. Not to be compared in any way to today’s liberal Democrats.
To both of you. Nebbishy refers to red herring non-issues we see in the media. I am NOT referring to genuine debate of meaningful issues. But some of the stuff the media churns out to crowd out real discussion is enough to make me pull my hair out. I have used this word to connote poor, thinly contrived non-issues which should have evaporated in the light of day. If we were honest, these are the things that read like the front page of a teen fan magazine. The topics we should be debating are being nibbled to death by ducks.
Remember, I work in the state capital. I hear what goes on in the hallways of the main building, and also see what is in the media. Trust me, many times they would prefer not to have to deal with that stuff either.
MK, I can only say you need to read more about our founding fathers. In fact, as an aside, many of them sided with the revolutionaries when the political winds changed in Britain, and they stood to lose the millions of acres of land grants theirs families held. This included not just the Washingtons and the Franklins, but signers of the Declaration of Independence. Many of the signers owned vast tracts in what became my state. Others were such bad businessmen that they threw their lot in because they hoped their debts with the trading houses would be wiped clean. And I doubt the social conservatives would be happy with the parts of the religious experience Deists felt were unnecessary.
So what is my point? In the end we got a country we all love. But it would be funny if it was not so sad that every time a conservative wants to make a point, they drag out the Founding Fathers, as if 1.) they had 21st century sensibilities, 2.) they were saints and 3.) they were religiously conservative. IF a conservative person wants to make a point, the issue should stand on its own two legs, without invoking the Founding Fathers. IF the Founding Fathers HAD been conservative, they would have supported the King!
@MK McMillion
“And, what do you consider an important argument?”
If the motto “In God We Trust” is in no jeopardy of disappearing from U.S. coinage, does it REALLY matter where it is on the coin? Should we be taking up precious congressional time on such flapdoodle? I would much rather they talk about the mint where they stamp them out.
So Michelle Obama has worn dresses that let her arms hang out. Who cares? Why aren’t we talking about military suicides?
Japanese Mortified By Obama’s Bow Okay, he screwed up. Big deal. Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table. What were they taking about when he got there? Why should it matter to us? Maybe it only matters to big banks. Maybe it matters to the Chinese.
You get my drift.
Shouldn’t we all be “independent”? The fact that a party would try to move it’s ideology right or left to suit it’s goals in the next election makes me sick. It’s just a ploy by the party to regain power and then reward the folks who keep the cash flowing into the party (both sides are guilty). The people who’s names appear on our ballots each fall aren’t there because they are our best and brightest, they are there because they play the game and tow the “party” line. We could let the parties manipulate thier message from election to election and trick us into voting for the “party”. -OR- We could think for ourselves and vote for the people we believe will do the best job without regard for the party that is pulling thier strings. Whether you live in a bunker in the woods and wear a foil hat, or wear hemp shoes and ride a bike made out of recycled tofu containers, which party fits? That’s how people in the middle feel as well. So I say let them slide around and pander all they want, as Americans we should continnue to (or start) thinking for ourselves and leave the parties to fools who can’t. If you’re not independent then you must be dependent(?). Now that’s not very American.
@Mr. Sanders
As a moderate, I rarely vote a straight ticket. However “independent” means different things in different parts of the country, and here, it would be just as much a “party” as the other parties.