Different options
The November election is fast approaching and multiple races are gaining steam. One of those battles is a special election in our own neighborhood, New York’s 23th Congressional District, where a three-way race features Democrat Bill Owens, a Republican Dede Scozzafava, and one Doug Hoffman, who failed to secure Republican nomination and is now running as a Conservative Party candidate. However, this congressional race raises a lot of passion all over the country as well, with prominent Republicans, such as Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin taking opposing sides, and many notable commentators weighing in.
According to some commentators, the race is important because it might be a sign of things to come in the next election. The congressional seat in question has been in Republican hands for over a hundred years. If it turned blue, it would, at the very least, diminish some Democratic anxieties regarding the next election. However, many commentators also see the race as a gauge of the strength of conflicting strategic and ideological currents within Republican Party, with one side arguing for moderation and a move to the center, and the other side arguing for less compromise on principles and more ideological clarity. However, the interpretation of this election as a clash of visions has also been challenged.
Are you following this race? Do you think it will be a reliable sign of the things to come in 2010? Which strategy do you think would bring Republicans more power: moving towards the center or articulating a clearer ideology at the cost of moving away from the center? Do you think the importance of that narrative has been exaggerated?
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My first room mate in college was from New York. That experience has taught me New Yorkers attach too much significance to this race. In many ways, they are more provincial than people who live anywhere else in the U.S. in that they don’t weigh the importance of other people or events as much as they do their own.
As a ‘Yorker’ and a libertarian, I find this this race VERY interesting. At its core, it is a struggle between the political ‘elite’ and the ‘common man’. Is it “a reliable sign of the things to come in 2010″? Well … my crystal ball is a bit clouded at the moment but it is certainly a sign of shifting sentiment. If Hoffman wins then Newt loses big and Sarah wins big. If Hoffman loses in 2009 then he will win in 2010. And he will have made a point. Maybe the ‘elite’ will notice.
The only way for politicians to read the returns on election night is to see the final percentates of the Democratic candidate vs. the two “Republican Candidates.” If the Democrat can’t get 40%, (whether or not he wins) then, Republicans will claim victory and those Congressmen in difficult districts in 2010 will notice. No matter how you slice it, the fact that Republicans are fighting each other which is allowed in the New York system, a poor Democratic showing will be the thing to watch. Also, who turns out should be another indicator for the future elections.
Yes, but future elections where? In New York? – or Nashville, Miami or Los Angeles??? While important locally, is this really important in Memphis relative to elections in 2012?
the fact of the matter is that this race is national news and it’s not because of new yorkers but because of assorted national figures, who mostly reside in DC.
Some fail to see this. The GOP doesn’t matter. The Democratic party doesn’t matter, but conservative values do. For those of us serious about a better future-we’ll take a loss rather than stand with someone who has had the assistance of ACORN and allows for abortion and take a middle ground or appeacsment approach to their political future: some one who is willing to say and do almost anything to get elected. Newt, shame on you…don’t stand with someone because you think they are more likely to get elected stand with the person who best represents in language and life the principles of conservatism. My support is fully behind Hoffman-win or lose. Thanks again Sarah for being ROGUE
Mark
John, are you polling this race?
@Cata
Jon & Kate plus Eight, will Kate have a career in movies?? Does anyone care?? Media has created this need to know. Same here.
Yes, this race is very important to New Yorkers. However in my state, the Republican Party is bankrupt. Candidates with Republican leanings run as conservative Democrats. The elections are therefore decided in the primaries. IF those conservative candidates could actually run as Republicans, we would be known as a Republican state. This is a very different dynamic than the New York situation. Many states have unique scenarios.
While New York is densely populated, it does not follow that their issues and concerns represent those of the whole country. You cannot extraporate New Yorkers concerns out into the general population of the nation. My first roommate was astounded that other people did not automatically think the way they do in New York or hold the same opinions. We don’t. We have many issues that are not even relevant to them.
There are SO many potential confounding variables between here and 2012, that we will only be able to identify what was truly prescient – after the fact.
that might as well be correct. my point was that it was not new yorkers (and certainly not new yorkers alone) who made this race national news.
i applaud your cautiousness and wish you applied it to your stereotype of new yorkers.
Hey Jaime, take out a map. The 23rd District is the least populated part of the New York State. This has NOTHING to do with the district being in NYS. It could be anywhere.
@Slothrop
Has it occurred to you or anyone else that I am talking about the media as much as anything else?? And maybe it could be anywhere, but guess what – it’s not. It is in New York. The least populated places probably still have more people than where I live.
@Cata
Cata, I was born in New York. We went to visit folks allot. And I interact with people from New York in my workplace. There seems to be a cultural assumption that the rest of the country follows their lead in many areas, such as Wall Street, Broadway, fashion, etc. but also politically. My experience has been that they let us know that the rest of us in the hinterlands are just out of touch with what is “real”, because “real” is what is happening in New York. Not true! We have our own issues, our own values. And if you add the rest of us up, we are bigger than all of New York.