So, you let anyone volunteer for an online poll with no real way to verify if the information they are giving you is correct, and publish it as accurate?

DJ, by that logic no polls would work, as you can’t verify someone on a phone call is indeed who they say they are either.

@Dan – I just signed up using 2 different e-mail addresses and put bogus info in each of the registrations. It’s very easy to “freep” these kinds of polls and this particular interactive poll has a high rate of misses.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again.html

“in an Internet poll conducted from January 22-26, for example, in the immediate aftermath of Barack Obama’s inauguration, Zogby had Obama’s job approval at 52/29, while the average of polls from five other agencies (Gallup, Hotline, Rasmussen, FOX and Democracy Corps) conducted at the same time put the numbers at avergae of 62/19.

Let’s take a look at the track record of Zogby’s Internet polling. Zogby conducted his last series of Internet polls for last year’s Presidential election in mid-October. He missed 3 of 11 states, and was off on the final margin by an average of 5.4 points.”

DJ:

Just how many Zogby polls have you participated in?

I’ve responded to several, all under one original registration – one that contained only legitimate information. I have never seen anything to indicate any problem (or “freep”, whatever that is). In Michigan, “Freep” is a formal nickname used by the Detroit Free Press newspaper to refer to itself.

Regarding the subject title:

From my perspective, Obama has injured his credibility by trying to solve all of the country’s problems before this year’s beach season starts. His budget & “stimulus” spending is a prescription for national bankruptcy and/or inflation of the worst order.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated his deficit spending will quadruple that of the Bush administration.

It seems to be a very plausible reason for many Americans to back away from this guy. As a Libertarian-leaning centrist, I don’t want to be around to see that kind of spending come to fruition.

Like President Obama said in his PC last night, “This [job] is hard!”

I think it’s actually amusing that there have been so many job-rating opinion polls in just 2 months. I certainly don’t agree with everything the President is doing (don’t even get me started on our Congress!), but I’ve answered “don’t know” when asked how he’s doing. I think it’s just too early to really be sure. What’s simultaneously amusing and disturbing to me is the evidence of how many voters actually thought any president could do all the things Pres. Obama promised during his campaign. It’s almost like watching someone lose their religion.

We The People don’t seem to understand the job description very well.

On the good side, the level of scrutiny that Pres. Obama is facing … about time!! The more we pay attention to every little microsecond, the better. I think the poll results are interesting, even if (IMO) excessive.

I suspect there’s an interesting degree of subjectivity involved in answering these questions, and perhaps the President’s ratings are less reflective of his actual perceived performance than the respondents’ personal outlook. President Obama was the victim of irrational anticipations, as if his inauguration could reset the clock and undo the effects of the Bush years, and yet we woke up the next day to find conditions unchanged. We want our debts paid, our jobs secured, and our taxes lowered, and if that hasn’t happened, it’s his fault. Beyond that, politics plays a major role. Whiel the Democrats initially supported President Bush, and did so for too long, the Republicans have offered a united front of opposition — and gotten their full share of press coverage.

So, I wonder if it would be worth asking two questions:
1) How is the President doing?
2) How do you feel about your own future?
The see how these corelate. I would submit that an increase in the GDP, if it comes quickjly enough to be tied to the economic stimulus programs, would reflect that the President is doing a good job — however many people whose savings and careers have been destroyed by the current downturn would have an unfavorable impression because of lack of personal benefits.

If Zogby were the only one coming up with similar answers, I might agree with the poll-bashing. Yes things can be hacked (I’ve been on the internet since 78 and that’s a DUH), but that’s no reason to stop trying to get folks to think about the issues.

Personally, I think Obama is using economics that go back to Galbraith in a world that has already proven that economic model is idyllic rather than fact-based, and has gotten us to the place we’re in. More of the same is more likely to bring us further down (and give China way more control over all of our lives than we would like).

His personality gives him the win-points, as Ronald Reagan’s did, and that speaks volumes to the degree to which poll measure, not thoughtful consideration of the facts and policies, but the emotional appeal of things. Then again, emotional appeal in our times is what runs political campaigns and gets people elected, which is why polls play such a significant roll at election time.

I would like to see polls that track facts and policies better, but weeding out people’s emotional responses, or their willingness to sign up as 12 different people to get their side of the polling to win, is fair to middling impossible. It’s the people we have to change, and that’s going to take a long, long time. Until then all we can do is keep asking questions that might trigger a brain cell or two to fire and make connections between our emotional reactions and the bad things that happen because we were using our emotions to think with.

@Eva Kosinski

Eva, I like you. I really like you. (Ok, I like everybody) I am particularly fond of the similarities in the way you and I see things. I basically agree with everything you said.

You lost me here, though, “It’s the people we have to change…”

I think that it is We The People who have to change. I like the nuances you (and others) have pointed out. I’ve noticed that most poll questions – or their tone – have an obvious intent to herd us into one (divisive) group or another.

I do understand that pollsters have a difficult job in boiling things down to common denominators in order to obtain discernible results. I think some polls can expose and/or exacerbate a symptom of greater problems we face in our country with the way political opinions are expressed, reported and categorized. (Can’t even tell you how many times I’ve been called a Liberal, even though I’m a lifelong Republican, just for instance)

I like what the internet provides through blogging. Particularly this one, in fact. What a wonderful opportunity for people to publicly discuss things with each other – as individuals, given an opportunity to think and express … not just repeat a corporate line, campaign slogan or ratings-grabber. In theory … yes, I’ve seen the hate-fests, too. And of course, polls can fall victim to intentional shenanigans.

Perhaps you and I are actually saying the same thing. Perhaps we just have a different order of the wording, as I quoted you above.

Further nuance-ing myself here, I believe that We The People are responsible for our government, not the other way around. But I haven’t seen that option in any polls.

It is hilarious to see liberals falling all over themselves to find fault with the “method” this poll used.

If this was a poll on George W. Bush’s performance, you all would be running around waving the poll in the air shouting “Bush is below 50%!”

Face it, Obama is in over his head. He read everything he said during the campaign, so the only thing he is good at is READING.

As for him saying “this job is hard”, um, yes OHB, the job of president IS hard! YOU applied for it, now either do the job or get out of the way for someone that can run this country properly.

@Concerned American
Nice ratings-grabber you memorized there. Pres. Obama has been in office for about 2 months. Of course he’s overwhelmed and uncertain. I’m Concerned, too. But I’m American first.

I’m just as tired of hearing self-proclaimed owners-of-all-things-conservative griping about the unfair media as I am of hearing our current government blame everything on the previous one.

Lemme call it like I see it … in the past few days I’ve had to listen to the poster child for negative Republican stereotypes declare her all-out war on the unfair media (of course, without proposing how the Republicans can repair their own public image by not deliberately alienating as many people as they possibly can), and a Presidential press conference peppered with more blame on the “past 8 years.” (Not a real effective euphemism.) It’s truly getting old for me.

Since you’re obviously so upset about the way the media and the liberals treated Pres. Bush, perhaps you might want to show a better example of the kind of treatment you hope the next Republican president might receive. Call me crazy … but I’m dizzy from all your finger pointing and sarcastic name calling.

Do you have anything to say about polls other than “vast left wing conspiracy” or “get out of the way OHB” … which is offensive, btw. We have one president at a time. I feel very sorry for you if you plan on being so angry for the next 4 years.

@SmartCookie

Sounds more like smartcookie is going to have a long 4 years defending private company take overs and massive govt spending. After 4 years of Bush bashing the liberals and liberal media seem to be grasping at something to complain about. My opinion is they are trying to distract from the insane payoffs to unions and left wing organizations through “fake stimulus” (massive tax hikes). I think BO is all about becoming the most left wing prez ever. Not sure that is going to bring praise, since the Dems have no past to cling to. They have ideals that have begun in the most recent of years. JFK was a conservative in every sense of the new Dem direction. He was a tax cutter catholic. Conservative values go back to the founding fathers.

@DJShay
DJ’s question is a good one. But the issue is not about people lying on their answers, it is about whether the sample surveyed can be used to estimate the attitudes of the population. By letting people choose to participate, rather than inviting them to participate based on a randomly selected sample from the population, the results of the poll CANNOT be used to estimate the real value of the president’s approval in the population.

Consider that NOT ONE of the polls based on random probability samples puts the president’s approval below 57% (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls) and you can see why the method Zogby is using in this poll is utterly useless.

Decades of opinion research shows that when people choose to participate in a poll, as opposed to being invited via random selection, the results are biased to the extreme.

With Zogby’s long apparent connection with the conservative community (for years Rush Limbaugh only quoted Zogby polls), it is not surprising that the results of this poll are biased to the conservative view.

You get what you pay for and in this case, Zogby is not paying for a proper sample.

These results are not worth anything.

@DrDigiPol
Well… according to the methodology of the poll, a sample was drawn from Zogby’s online panel. The results can be extrapolated to the online panel if the response rate was sufficiently high. As far as I can see, that rate is not presented. Even if the online panel is indeed representative of the population, everything still hinges on response rates.

In fact, when I had the chance to speak with John Zogby in person, he indicated that no polls, not even his, is a good measure of the population anymore because response rates are so low.

KU :
@SmartCookie
Sounds more like smartcookie is going to have a long 4 years defending private company take overs and massive govt spending. After 4 years of Bush bashing the liberals and liberal media seem to be grasping at something to complain about. My opinion is they are trying to distract from the insane payoffs to unions and left wing organizations through “fake stimulus” (massive tax hikes). … Conservative values go back to the founding fathers.

KU, don’t worry about me. I won’t be defending any of that garbage. I don’t think you’ve read very many of my posts. You’ll get to know me. We agree much more than you think. (At least from what I gather based on your comment, directed at me.) But I have a very low tolerance for much of the Limbaugh-esque hate-speak from many so-called conservative bloggers (and pundits). I’m interested in balance being restored to our government. Unfortunately, the right wing blowhards are the “liberals” best friend, IMO.

Obama thinks that when your in debt you need to spend more money to get out of debt. That line of thinking is very dangerous! That would be like thinking if your house was on fire you should throw gas on it so it will somehow go out or get bigger and better. The good side is if we get smart he can only hurt us for 4 years.

I think that it is interesting that so many people in this thread have responded to questions about the methodology of Zogby’s online polls by attacking Obama. As if criticizing Obama could make the poll more accurate. These people would do well to remember that these same bad polls predicted Obama winning the CA primary by 13 when he actually lost by 9.

In other words, criticizing this poll isn’t about being pro-Obama, its about being pro accurate polling results.