Answers,
as Stated by John Zogby
Who gets called for these polls?
The people in my circle and I have never been called!
How can
you get accuracy with such a small number of people polled?
What is a
"margin of error"?
What
political party is Zogby International affiliated with?
When you
poll the U.S. where exactly do you call?
If I give
you my phone number will you put me on your "calling list"?
What
makes Zogby International's answers so different from other
polls?
Why don't you ever call me or my
friends? None of my friends, or those in my circle agree with the
polls!
JZ: "Phone numbers are
chosen purely by random, ensuring that every household in the US (or
wherever we are polling) have as much chance of being selected as any
other. With tens of millions of adults in the US, it is still rather
easy to be missed - but stay in there and maybe stay home more often.
You probably have more of a chance of being called than having a
visit by Ed McMahon."
How can polls be so accurate when you
only ask such a small number of people?
JZ: "It's pure probability
and statistics. The same theory is involved as when you take a blood
test and the clinician draws only a small sample rather than draining
all the blood out of your body."
What is a "margin of error"?
JZ: "The margin of sampling
error means that if we do the same poll 100 times, in 95 cases out of
100, we will get the same results plus or minus a certain percentage.
Generally, a sample of 400 gives you an MOE of +/-5%, 600 gets you
+/-4%, 1000 gets +/-3%. We need to be sure our sampling is random and
scientific. It all relates to probability and statistics. If there
are a million marbles in a jar, some black and some white - how best
do I determine the number of each color, short of counting every
marble? If I draw 1000 out at random, chances are I will get the same
numbers of each 95 times out of 100 within a margin of error of
+/-3%. However, there are other sources of survey error - e.g. how
questions are phrased, etc."
I've heard so many conflicting stories
- is Zogby International a Republican pollster, a Democratic pollster
or an Independent pollster?
JZ: "We are independent and
nonpartisan. I am personally a Democrat, but the firm does a lot of
work for media (like Reuters America, New York Post, St. Louis Post
Dispatch, etc.) and we work for both parties."
Where do you poll for Zogby America?
What regions, area codes or time zones?
JZ: "If we are polling the
US, we poll from a sample drawn from all households with telephones
in 48 states. We, like others, do not poll Hawaii or Alaska because
of time differences and because Republican Alaska cancels out
Democratic Hawaii. As well, out of a sample of 1000 likely voters
there would only be a total of 1 from both states (combined)."
Can I be put on a list so that you can
call me for a future poll?
JZ: "I'm sorry but our
polls must be random. As soon as we "place" people in our pool of
respondents we run the risk of skewing results."
I read a lot of polls and yours is so
different from the others - what makes your answers so different (and
accurate)?
JZ: "We poll only
likely voters who are different from just all adults. In addition, we poll all day long - 9am to 9pm
local time (to the region we're calling). Finally, we apply weighting
for party identification to ensure that there is no built-in
Democratic bias in our sampling."