February 09, 2010
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North Dakota Senator Byron Dorgan Trails in Potential 2010 Senate Match-up
Opposition to Healthcare Legislation More Than Double Support among North Dakota Likely Voters
UTICA, New York - In a potential 2010 election match-up Republican Governor John Hoeven leads Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan 55% to 36% with 9% undecided. Senator Dorgan, however, leads another possible challenger, Republican Duane Sand, by a similar margin, 60% to 28% with 10% undecided.
Twenty-eight percent of likely North Dakotan voters support the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama compared with 62% who oppose the proposed legislation, including 48% who strongly oppose the bill. A plurality of respondents believe that both North Dakota Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad support the proposed bill.
When asked how a vote by Senator Dorgan in support of the healthcare bill would impact their potential vote for the Senator in the 2010 election, 12% of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for Senator Dorgan as a result, while 40% would be less likely. Forty-six percent say Senator Dorgan's vote on health care makes no difference, including 62% of likely-Dorgan voters.
Do you support or oppose the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama now making its way through Congress?
|
|
Overall |
DEM |
IND |
GOP |
|
Strongly Support |
10 |
24 |
8 |
2 |
|
Somewhat Support |
17 |
36 |
17 |
3 |
|
Somewhat Oppose |
14 |
16 |
18 |
9 |
|
Strongly Oppose |
48 |
11 |
45 |
80 |
|
Not Sure |
10 |
14 |
12 |
6 |
After being read a brief statement describing both supporting and opposing positions on the healthcare bill, support for the bill holds at 27% while opposition increases to 66%. When likely voters are told that Senator Dorgan supports the legislation his support in the potential horse race against Governor Hoeven slips to 31% with 61% preferring the Governor and 8% undecided.
The survey was administered by Zogby International which is solely responsible for its content. It was paid for by the League of American Voters, a group which opposes the health care legislation.
For full survey results, click here.
Zogby International was commissioned by League of American Voters to conduct a telephone survey of 502 likely voters in North Dakota. The survey was conducted between November 17th and 18th 2009. Samples were randomly drawn from telephone cd's of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR's approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by region, party, age, race and gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
[1] See COOP4 (p.38) in Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates of Surveys. The American Association for Public Opinion Research, (2000).
[2] Cooperation Tracking Study: April 2003 Update, Jane M. Sheppard and Shelly Haas. The Council for Marketing & Opinion Research (CMOR). Cincinnati, Ohio (2003).
(11/20/2009)
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