November 21, 2009
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Corzine, Christie Locked in "Nail Biter"
Stockton College/Zogby International Survey Shows Corzine With One Point Lead; Daggett Could Tip Scales
Galloway Twp, NJ - A poll of 1,093 likely New Jersey voters finds incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine leading Republican challenger Chris Christie by one percentage point (40% to 39%) headed into next Tuesday's general election.
Support for independent challenger Chris Daggett sits at 14%. Daggett has strong support among independent and unaffiliated voters (23%), but is also pulling support from the left (13% among Democrats) and the right (8% among Republicans).
|
|
Overall |
DEM (42%) |
IND (26%)* |
GOP (32%) |
|
Jon Corzine |
40% |
71% |
26% |
11% |
|
Chris Christie |
39% |
10% |
39% |
77% |
|
Chris Daggett |
14% |
13% |
23% |
8% |
|
Someone Else |
1% |
1% |
2% |
Less than 1% |
|
Undecided |
6% |
5% |
10% |
4% |
*Includes Independent and Unaffiliated voters. Party ID based on self identification.
Both Corzine and Christie's bases are holding strong with Corzine's support among Democrats at 71%, yet low for an incumbent; while Christie's Republican support is slightly higher at 77%. The survey showed that likely voters who are independent or unaffiliated are more likely to support Christie (39%) than Cozine (26%), even in this traditionally blue state.
"Less than a week from the election, only a third of likely voters (34%) say they would like to see Governor Corzine reelected," said Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman. "The majority (59%) want someone new, including 30% of likely Democratic voters and 70% of Independents and unaffiliated voters."
"Voters seemed to have firmed up their choices with only 6% undecided," continued Schulman. When asked the impact of the lieutenant governor candidates on their vote for governor, 73% say it has little or no impact. Allegations of political corruption do have a huge influence on 36% of likely voters.
According to pollster John Zogby: "This is a bad political environment for an incumbent nationally, but even worse considering New Jersey's enormous budget problems. That said, for many voters the incumbent Governor may be the lesser of two evils and New Jersey has historically given Democrats the benefit of the doubt. Both Corzine and Christie have been unsparing with their attacks and the surprising rise of Chris Daggett is a testament to how ineffectual both parties have been at appealing to voters. Daggett's performance should serve as a warning to Republicans and Democrats. If Daggett can surge and get nearer to 20 percent of the vote, we may see more 3rd party candidates emerge in 2010."
Zogby International was commissioned by the Hughes Center for Public Policy at The Richard Stockton College to conduct a telephone survey of 1,093 likely voters. The survey ran from October 27th to October 29th 2009. Weights were applied by region, party, age, race and gender to adjust for non-response. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.0 percentage points.
Contact: Tim KellyOffice of Public Relations
Galloway Township, NJ 08240
Tim.Kelly@stockton.edu
(609) 652-4950
(10/30/2009)
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